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  • ABC: Global warming puts fish stocks at risk « Climate Audit
    with relatives like Sr and Ba that the Ca and Mg are distributed at microscopic scale adjacent to each other in the shell and that the resulting shells are stable enough to resist even very minor leaching post formation BTW I one almost finished a thesis on Ca Mg ratios in plant growth I stopped because too little was known of the outstanding questions to be able to continue continue John B Posted Nov 28 2007 at 2 19 AM Permalink The ABC uses mathematics too The ABC science guru DR Karl counted the articles for AGW in nature and found more published articles for it than against it And hes the bright one richardT Posted Nov 28 2007 at 2 38 AM Permalink Jimmy at 3 has already found the answer to this conundrum HADSST grid cells are 5 x5 a much larger area than the upwelling cells Therefore temperature changes in the whole grid cell are not representative of the upwelling area And the fish Juvenile fish are not good swimmers juvenile planktonic fish are carried by the current If the current takes them out of suitable habitat before they are large enough to swim against it survival and recruitment will be poor I don t know how likely this scenario is but it is plausible and there are ecological models being developed that could test it Geoff Sherrington Posted Nov 28 2007 at 2 56 AM Permalink Re 28 RichardT Is the forecast so gloomy that a food mechanism that brings the Bounty of Nature to small fish is so perverse that Nature also keeps the small fish away from it Does it mean that fish food produced in cold upwellings is more likely to die of old age than from being eaten I don t know but strange things can happen It would be good if your findings give an answer to your wonderings one that you can share with us D Patterson Posted Nov 28 2007 at 2 58 AM Permalink Well it all smells very fishy indeed Add to it the smell of the phytoplankton struggling and dying in their multitudes for want of sufficient iron to sustain their metabolism and the irony of zooplankton starving the waters of oxygen as they decay Feed or don t feed the plankton and a journalist will memorialize the fishy demise richardT Posted Nov 28 2007 at 4 11 AM Permalink 29 Suffer little fishes for nature is a great equivocator The currents that bring forth your food will carrying you unto your doom Pray not for bounteous times http maretec mohid com PublicData products Papers Survival pdf Peter Thompson Posted Nov 28 2007 at 5 01 AM Permalink 9 Larry Recently on a blog I observed a mathematical expression for your query This should clear all remaining cofusion regarding this and other inconsistencies in climate science AGW causes X X can be anything pk Posted Nov 28 2007 at 5 34 AM Permalink Dr Helen McGregor and her research team from MARUM Research Centre Ocean Margins at the University of Bremen in Germany report in the journal Science that climate induced changes in the ocean have never been more dramatic than in the past three or so decades The past three or so decades the top 3 to 6 inches of the core Is sampling dating really that accurate precise in the top few inches of the surface MarkW Posted Nov 28 2007 at 5 35 AM Permalink Fish might have trouble swimming against the stronger upwelling I was not aware that fish generally swam straight down richardT Posted Nov 28 2007 at 6 14 AM Permalink 32 The area has a high sedimentation rate 210cm per thousand years and the top of the core is dates with Pb210 Pb210 has a half life of 22 years and so is useful for sediment up to about a century old typically with an uncertainty of 10 20 of the age The uncertainty is minimal in the most recent sediments The chronological accuracy that Helen McGregor reports is realistic 33 Upwelling is driven by wind driven lateral movements of water which create a void the upwelling waters try to fill It is these lateral currents that transport the fish eggs and young away from their feeding ground Michael Smith Posted Nov 28 2007 at 6 30 AM Permalink Kenneth 16 The science can present contradictory stories but the story taken away after some nonscientific hand waving in concluding remarks and the press conferences that follow is that same old story that GW can only produce bad results and never good If you think good you simply have not looked at the issue from the correct perspective The AGW crowd as well as environmentalists generally hold that life in nature depends on the maintenance of a delicate balance of factors the upset of any of which can prove disastrous Thus any change that is detected can be interpreted negatively Of course if this model of nature were true I don t see how life would have survived things like the ice ages or the warmings that seperate them In any event evolution teaches us that life in nature is not static and balanced but dynamic competitive and constantly changing If it were not we would still be in the trees Steve McIntyre Posted Nov 28 2007 at 6 39 AM Permalink Richard T if upwelling is such a problem for fish why are upwelling areas more productive than non upwelling areas Is there any evidence that fish have not adapted nicely to upwelling areas richardT Posted Nov 28 2007 at 7 03 AM Permalink 36 Upwelling zones are indeed among the most fertile areas of the ocean But the relationship between upwelling intensity and ecosystem productivity is not necessarily linear Try Ware Thompson 2005 Science 308 1280 1284 for counter intuitive findings from the US Canada Pacific coastline Dr Slop Posted Nov 28 2007 at 7 09 AM Permalink Larry 9 I can t keep up Wasn t GW supposed to cause the Greenland ice sheet to melt and slide off into the Atlantic shutting down the thermohaline conveyor Now it s supposed to speed the conveyor up so fast the fish can t swim What s the official party line here Speed up or stop You are behind the times The issue s no longer global warming or climate change but rather Global Climate Destabilization The next item in the declension is just Climate Destabilization as evidence of which any minor local anomaly will serve MarkW Posted Nov 28 2007 at 7 18 AM Permalink Very few fish allow their eggs to just float in the open ocean They are usually attached to the bottom or to bottom structures Ditto for young fish they stay close to the bottom in and around structures Derek Mc Posted Nov 28 2007 at 7 19 AM Permalink Richard T Why do we need an ecological model can t someone just go out there and actually observe whether the upwelling has a negative effect on fish stocks Our research suggests that upwelling will intensify with future greenhouse warming however it is unclear whether fish will be able to counter the stronger upwelling currents and benefit from the likely increase in phytoplankton phytoplankton increase due to higher nutrient levels said Dr McGregor So far this is just a stab in the dark or a hypothesis to test why don t we observe what actually happens due to upwelling before we draw any conclusions from it steve mosher Posted Nov 28 2007 at 7 21 AM Permalink Dr Slop Uncle Toby says hello richardT Posted Nov 28 2007 at 7 54 AM Permalink 39 ichthyoplankton Why would 139 000 pages refer to something that wasn t important 40 Ecological models are useful because many ecosystems are difficult to manipulate experimentally They can help to understand what the key variables in the system are and when validated against observational data can be used to make predictions With predictions ideally with confidence intervals suitable management actions can be taken to minimise the effects of ecological change Waiting to see what happens allows only retrospective actions Bernie Posted Nov 28 2007 at 8 15 AM Permalink I can t figure out how deeply the tongue is planted in the cheek on this one RichardT Won t the current take the plankton and the fish More generally in response to Steve s tic question Too much food results in obesity and a myriad of well documented and related health problems Plus too much food now means that they will have problems when there is too little food in the future A government program is clearly needed Where is Bjorn Lomborg on this one Steve McIntyre Posted Nov 28 2007 at 8 43 AM Permalink 42 Richard T the primary claim of your citation is a bottom up linkage between plankton production and fish yield Zooplankton data for coastal British Columbia confirm strong bottom up trophic linkages between phytoplankton zooplankton and resident fish extending to regional areas as small as 10 000 square kilometers It doesn t say anything about fish having problems swimming and seems to support that idea that increased upwelling will yield more plankton and more fish regardless of swimming lessons cbone Posted Nov 28 2007 at 8 43 AM Permalink Re 17 Ok this might be a bit off topic but here goes I have a gripe with the way they plot the anomoly maps The abrubt transition from yellow to blue to differentiate hot cold is IMO a bit misleading Wouldn t it make more sense to have a common neutral color for 25 to 25 with color transitions on either end As it is it is difficult to see the difference at least visually between the really hot and really cold areas Has anyone else noticed this Dr Slop Posted Nov 28 2007 at 8 54 AM Permalink Steven Mosher 41 The good doctor responds in kind He also on reflection admits his formulation of the cline to be rhetorically incomplete the ultimo element being most effectively dubbed macronascent climate destabilization Larry Posted Nov 28 2007 at 9 01 AM Permalink I don t know how likely this scenario is but it is plausible and there are ecological models being developed that could test it There s an important scientific question The knee jerk reaction is to model What s wrong with this picture steve mosher Posted Nov 28 2007 at 9 05 AM Permalink RE 46 Curly concurs Have you seen shemp welikerocks Posted Nov 28 2007 at 9 35 AM Permalink I remembered this article from last year Marine Life Stirs Ocean Enough To Affect Climate Study Says link By interpreting existing data in a different way we have predicted theoretically that the amount of mixing caused by ocean swimmers is comparable to the deep ocean mixing caused by the wind blowing on the ocean surface and the effects of the tides Dewar said In fact he explained biosphere mixing appears to provide about one third the power required to bring the deep cold waters of the world ocean to the surface which in turn completes the ocean s conveyor belt circulation critical to the global climate system Findings from the FSU led study Does the marine biosphere mix the ocean will appear in the forthcoming issue of the Journal of Marine Research adding the role of major power broker to phytoplankton s already impressive credentials Larry Posted Nov 28 2007 at 9 35 AM Permalink Shemp went fishing Somebody told him to catch while the fishing s good because it s all going to be gone in a year What a stooge richardT Posted Nov 28 2007 at 9 39 AM Permalink 44 OK not about swimiming ability but the ecosystem response to upwelling In this region upwelling and primary productivity are negatively correlated a counter intuitive result Perhaps this is a different topic but the result is the same From page 1282 chl a concentration at the spatial scale of the NPAFC regions is negatively correlated with the annual cumulative seaward Ekman transport The negative sign of this correlation is counterintuitive in that decreasing seaward Ekman transport is normally thought to produce reduced primary productivity and indicates that factors other than wind induced upwelling are important for plankton productivity For example from spring to fall in the southern NPAFC regions upwelling is frequently punctuated by flow events 14 which cause the seaward transport of plankton from the narrow 10 km scale shelf to the deep ocean As a consequence a substantial fraction of the primary production in the coastal region from Pt Conception to 43 N becomes unavailable to the resident fish ecosystem Steve McIntyre Posted Nov 28 2007 at 9 49 AM Permalink Richard T you say or attribute the study as saying upwelling and primary productivity are negatively correlated at the spatial scale of the NPAFC region As you note this does not support McGregor s worry that future fish populations may need swimming lessons On a macro basis upwelling zones coincide with high productivity all over the world This study doesn t overturn this That local features may affect nuances of productivity geography is not necessarily inconsistent with this so what Jeremy Friesen Posted Nov 28 2007 at 10 24 AM Permalink 31 Peter Recently on a blog I observed a mathematical expression for your query This should clear all remaining cofusion regarding this and other inconsistencies in climate science AGW causes X X can be anything Actually your expression is slightly off More correctly stated it is AGW causes X X can be anything BAD Lance Posted Nov 28 2007 at 10 44 AM Permalink richardT It would appear that this study indicates that plankton from the upwelling are transported away by flow events out into deeper waters So it isn t that the fish are unable to swim to stay in the nutrient rich water but that the nutrients get swept past them This seems unlikely If the plankton are flowing past why wouldn t the fish be able to feed on them When I think of plankton I can t help but envision the megalomaniacal character Sheldon J Plankton from Sponge Bob Square Pants Felicitations malefactors I am endeavoring to misappropriate the formulary for the preparation of affordable comestibles WHO WILL JOIN ME MarkW Posted Nov 28 2007 at 12 02 PM Permalink All this arguing about whether increased upwelling will overwhelm a fishes ability to swim Has anyone actually measured what the speed of the upwelling was and what it is now The few numbers I ve seen show that upwelling is not a particularly fast phenomena Going from 10 feet an hour to 12 feet an hour would be enough to cool a sizeable area but I doubt the fish inside the upwelling would even notice Anna Lang Posted Nov 28 2007 at 12 15 PM Permalink RE 45 cbone I commented on map intervals and color choices on Unthreaded 23 Post 626 6 Nov 2007 4 34 PM http www climateaudit org p 2220 Steve McIntyre replied Steve Anna nice point Can you ping this again in a few weeks if I ve not posted something on it So there may be something in the works Tony Edwards Posted Nov 28 2007 at 12 19 PM Permalink The question of the Greenland icecap sliding off is rendered rather moot by the fact that it is sitting in a bowl In fact recently studying a sub ice contour map of Greenland it was evident that the centre of the icecap is at or below sea level while the mountains around the perimeter are some thousands of feet high Some slide off that would be Tony Edwards Posted Nov 28 2007 at 12 20 PM Permalink Can t get the hang of the block quote this should have been there Larry says November 27th 2007 at 7 24 pm I can t keep up Wasn t GW supposed to cause the Greenland ice sheet to melt and slide off into the Atlantic shutting down the thermohaline conveyor Now it s supposed to speed the conveyor up so fast the fish can t swim What s the official party line here Speed up or stop Paul G M Posted Nov 28 2007 at 12 53 PM Permalink Fish modelling No doubt the models that were so successful in preserving cod stocks off the Atlantic coast of Canada could be tuned up to deal with this problem They were so good they would almost certainly predict unprecedented warming whilst killing all the fish Pip pip Paul Steve Moore Posted Nov 28 2007 at 1 56 PM Permalink Re 37 44 The recurring Dead Zone on the Oregon Coast is claimed to be the result of upwelling caused by drum roll Climate Change http www oregonlive com science oregonian index ssf base science 1185933323144640 xml coll 7 Roger Dueck Posted Nov 28 2007 at 2 27 PM Permalink 30 richardT The study says SURVIVAL was intended to be a contribution at national level for the International Global Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics GLOBEC Programme on Small Pelagic Fish and Climate Change The objectives were i studying the hydrodynamic impact on eggelarvae dispersal and survival upon different stratification and atmospheric forcings ii studying the circulation structure and associated egg and larvae transport during a winter upwelling event iii developing the basis of an early life transport and survival model In this study a three dimensional hydrodynamic circulation model MOHID2000 was applied to the Atlantic coasts of the Iberian Peninsula for the main spawning season winter of sardine off the northern Portuguese coast A formal comparison of model results with field observations was beyond the scope of this study Oh great Another computer simulation of NOT the real world to get alarmed by Philip B Posted Nov 28 2007

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  • Lorenz et al 2006: “Tropical Cooling” « Climate Audit
    were several exceptions to the general claim that extra tropics cooled from the Holocene optimum while the tropics stayed nearly the same or warmed slightly On reading the paper quickly once I also noted that while underlying themes ran through the paper indicting that regional and seasonal differences existed during the HO and that general i e very general trends from climate modeling allowed some first look substantiation of these differences no attempts were made at statistically analyzing the data or even simply directly comparing it or averaging it over the globe I have a real difficult time taking these underlying themes seriously without the missing analyses Or perhaps I am missing something here It was if the authors presented the information in color coded picto graphs to be interpreted more by imagination than any hard analysis The SST reconstructions were stated in the article to be limited to alkenone proxies because of the need for consistency The use of this simple criterion would seem to me to make the study suspect for cherry picking if non alkenone proxies that went against the trends were not included in the study or at least mentioned Brooks Hurd Posted Jan 3 2007 at 4 18 PM Permalink Steve core 9 located offshore northwest USA is shown as tropical If 9 were off the east coast at that latitude I might believe that it were tropical I lived more than 8 years in the DC area and the Summer temperatures were tropical even in the 1980s They are claiming that it is tropical in the Pacific NW These authors clearly need to get out from behind their desks and travel to some of these sites I live a good distance south of 9 and I can assure you that California s Central Coast is far from tropical Off the NAMER west coast the Pacific is cold We drove through Pismo Beach last week and saw several people in swimming trunks coming out of the water We all agreed that they were not locals No one around here goes into the Pacific without a wet suit Brooks Hurd Posted Jan 3 2007 at 4 20 PM Permalink Note I meant off the NAMER west coast north of here the Pacific is cold Gator Posted Jan 5 2007 at 3 34 AM Permalink Steve McIntyre has made a huge argument around what sites were defined as tropical or extra tropical A quick read of the article in question makes it clear that the sites are not defined as tropical or extra tropical by the slope in the graphs shown as Steve McIntyre says above This is a tempest in a teapot Is this a deliberate misrepresentation by Steve McIntyre Or just a mistake We ll know when he posts a correction to his discussion Steve McIntyre Posted Jan 5 2007 at 9 28 AM Permalink Gator my main concern is exactly what evidence exists for cooling in the tropical Holocene Optimum I m reading this article in the context of how it s been used in the IPCC 4AR Second Draft where they rely on it as follows paleoclimatic records of the Holocene provide no conclusive evidence for globally synchronous warm periods especially because the temperature trends appear distinct in the low versus mid and high latitudes during the Holocene Lorentz et al 2006 So my concern is exactly what evidence exists for such distinct trends I haven t finished with this series because I m posting on many different issues right now but I plan to talk about the Warm Pool which appears to have a Holocene Optimum as well as other evidence on whether there was cooling in the tropical Holocene Optimum In examining the data there appear some sites which appear to show a warming throughout the Holocene Not a HS but a fairly sustained warming throughout the Holocene Also interesting So the main issue is how IPCC uses Lorentz et al 2006 and they use it to argue that there is tropical cooling I suppose that they were encouraged in this by the following statement in Lorentz et al The alkenone derived SST records show diverging linear trends over the last 7000 years Figures 3 and 4a In general the extratropics cooled while the tropics experienced a warming or no substantial temperature changes from 7 kyr B P to the present The magnitude varied between 0 62 C and 4 41 C per 7 kyr for the cooling and between 0 19 C and 1 47 C per 7 kyr for the warming Figure 3 Ken Fritsch Posted Jan 5 2007 at 12 28 PM Permalink I find the writing and terminology of the paper very soft in analyses and conclusions something that would make it more useful for the IPCC to reference in its tendency for generalized and less than clear cut language in spelling out uncertainties Steve M s reference to this paper weighs little or not at all on the interpretation of the authors classification of tropics and extratropics as the paper after Steve M pointing to it is there for all to read I would image that the Holocene Optimum temperature reconstructions have presented a stumbling block for making clearer cut statements about late 20th century representing unprecedented warming and by doing a computer model simulation the issue of seasonal variation can be put into the mix in less than precise terms in my view and cast doubt in a less than a compelling manner on the average global temperature being warmer than today The alkenone proxies are to be relegated to a measure of seasonal temperature that while being higher than today is averaged out by lower temperatures in seasons as computer runs indicate when the alkenone proxy was temperature insensitive or dormant if you will The climate model simulations are also used to very generally imply that an averaging effect of all seasons and global regions will show that the temperature of the Holocene Optimum could be lower than the late 20th century even though a straight forward look at the proxy data would indicate otherwise More proxy information and particularly those less susceptible to seasonal sensitivity will be interesting to see By the way this article noted that the model had to run for hundreds of years under the Holocene Optimum conditions in order to reach equilibrium I saw that same reference made in a previously discussed paper on modeling where the first 700 years were discarded because the model had not equilibrated The papers tend to indicate that at least part of this equilibration is not an artifact of the model run but deals with a relatively slow climate equilibration In contrast the Hansen Scenarios and I believe it was Scenario C shows an almost instantaneous effect of lowered GHG levels What is the estimated equilibration time for a given natural or anthropogenic change Gator Posted Jan 6 2007 at 12 47 PM Permalink Re 13 Steve McI your comments don t change the fact that your first two points in your article were flatly wrong Was this a mistake Or an attempt to make the Team look stupid All it did was make you look stupid as it appears you simply did not read the article you chose to criticize It would not surprise me that one would find varying patterns of temperature change that do not strictly track lattitude There are those pesky continents and things messing up the smooth flow of the oceans and atmosphere Steve McIntyre Posted Jan 6 2007 at 1 16 PM Permalink Gator you say that the first two points in my note were flat wrong I m trying to assess new territory for me and certainly don t claim to be as familiar with the data as with millennial reconstructions I m quite prepared to amend the points but I still don t see exactly what I ve got wrong My first point was Despite the protestations of the Team it seems to be a consensus of other paleoclimatologists that the Holocene Optimum was warmer at high southern latitudes For now I ll take this as read although it s well worth canvassing the literature Some citations are at ukweatherworld I base this comment on a statement in IPCC 4AR Second Draft which states the following Other early warm periods are identified in the equatorial west Pacific Stott et al 2004 China He et al 2004 New Zealand Williams et al 2004 south Africa Holmgren et al 2003 and Antarctica Masson et al 2000 At high southern latitudes the early warm period cannot be explained by local summer insolation changes see Box 6 1 suggesting that large scale reorganisation of latitudinal heat transport may have been responsible My statement was based on this statement from IPCC WG1 which seems to concede Holocene Optimum warmth at high southern latitudes My second point was The next line of Team attack on the Holocene Optimum is the argument of Lorenz et al 2006 building on earlier articles Rimbu et al 2004 and you ll undoubtedly hear more on this line of reasoning that the Holocene Optimum was a period of warming in the extratropics and cooling in the tropics Again IPCC 4AR Second Draft says In contrast tropical temperature reconstructions only available from marine records show that tropical Atlantic Pacific Indian Ocean SSTs exhibit a progressive warming from the beginning of the current interglacial onwards Rimbu et al 2004 Stott et al 2004 possibly a reflection of annual mean insolation change Figure 6 5 When considering the periods of largest temperature changes Figure 6 9 paleoclimatic records of the Holocene provide no conclusive evidence for globally synchronous warm periods especially because the temperature trends appear distinct in the low versus mid and high latitudes during the Holocene Lorentz et al 2006 I don t see that my representation here is incorrect either So I don t see that these points which I interpret as being the first two points are incorrect Perhaps you re thinking of different points If so let me know and I ll consider things some more Ken Fritsch Posted Jan 7 2007 at 1 24 PM Permalink Steve M the only disagreement that I think Gator could be referring to and to which RichardT in comment 5 of this thread referred see below is that the authors appear to have presented data by temperature trend and not by tropic or extratropic location Where does it specify in the paper which cores are tropical The colour coding in figure 3 seems to refer to the trend not the location It I think all derives from your statement below I agree that the authors appear to be using temperature trend and not location even though the trends are not totally consistent with locations I think that there are many interesting points to be made about this article so if this relatively unimportant point to me anyway can be resolved perhaps the discussion can continue A small point first core 11 with decreasing SST is shown as tropical while core 19 with increasing SST is shown as extra tropical Yet they seem to be very close together why the difference Steve McIntyre Posted Jan 7 2007 at 4 00 PM Permalink 17 Ken and Gator I ve re stated this post to focus more clearly on the reliance of Lorenz et al on upwelling regions in the tropics As Gator implicitly points out the arrangement of sites in Lorenz et al Figure 3 was a rhetorical device which conveyed an impression of differences between the tropics and the extratropics and thereby seemingly support the claim in the paper of differences between the tropics and extratropics As Gator observed Lorenz et al did not actually say that the sites were tropical and extratropical and so this arrangement in Figure 3 was merely rhetorical rather than according to their actual latitudes Ken Fritsch Posted Jan 7 2007 at 4 44 PM Permalink As Gator observed Lorenz et al did not actually say that the sites were tropical and extratropical and so this arrangement in Figure 3 was merely rhetorical rather than according to their actual latitudes That was my impression also and in line with my earlier stated impressions that the article tends in my view to be very fuzzy in making points I asked myself why the authors did not otherwise summarize all the trends in the tropics and extratropics and compare them with the seasonal computer simulations That is why I am interested in seeing other proxy data from this period that is not as seasonal as the alkenone proxy is claimed to be and something that might test the computer simulations results for seasonal variations The Lorenz paper seems to me to be constructed as a very quotable source for the Team and others without having to deal with the issues with much specific detail or with regard to countervailing evidence That is of course my opinion and I await further information and details to clarify it J Edwards Posted Jan 8 2007 at 10 18 AM Permalink In the Team vs Stott thread Andre posted a link to a thread on UK weather world which has a number of links to various papers relating to the Holocene Optimum One of those papers posted by Andre presumably the same one is the following paper Pronounced occurrence of long chain alkenones and dinosterol in a 25 000 year lipid molecular fossil record from Lake Titicaca South America Kevin M Theissen1 David A Zinniker1 J Michael Moldowan1 Robert B Dunbar1 and Harold D Rowe2 Presumably Lorenz did not include this site beacuse it wasn t an ocean site From the abstract Using these criteria the U37K unsaturation indices suggest relatively warmer temperatures in the mid Holocene In contrast to previous speculation lipid analysis provides little evidence of a greatly increased presence of aquatic plants during the mid Holocene Instead it appears that a few algal species were dominant in the lake Based on the dramatic rise in abundances of LCAs and dinosterol during the early to mid Holocene we suspect that the algal producers of these compounds rose in response to a combination of physical and chemical changes in the lake These include temperature salinity and alkalinity changes that occurred as lake level dropped sharply during a multi millennial drought affecting the Central Andean Altiplano Ken Fritsch Posted Jan 15 2007 at 9 35 PM Permalink I continue to think the Lorenz 2006 article is less than clear on the message that it seems to want to convey It does very little detailed summarization of the data or the conclusions that it appears to only vaguely draw from the data From the alkenone proxy data in Lorenz 2006 I calculated average tropic and extratropic temperature changes to present and came up with tropics 30N to 30S change from 7000 years BP the Holocene Optimum to present 0 23 degrees C and for the extratropics all other areas of the globe this change 1 45 degrees C Since the tropics and extra tropics have nearly equal areas we can say that from the alkenone data alone that 7000 years BP was globally about 0 61 degrees C warmer than present For the ensemble of computer simulations the Lorenz paper presents not data for the change from Holocene Optimum to present but color coded global maps showing the estimated temperatures changes I eye balled these maps to arrive at the following temperature changes For the maps showing changes for annual temperatures I estimated changes of 0 1 degree C for the tropics and 0 7 degrees C for the extra tropics most of this change occurring in the northern hemisphere So without stating this conclusion directly the computer simulations showed that the Holocene optimum was approximately 0 3 degrees C warmer than present Now the authors of Lorenz 2006 do not appear to be content with this as a conclusion They go on to attempt to show that computer model climate simulations can provide seasonal change resolution for the Holocene Optimum period to present that the alkenone results cannot It appears to me that the interest is not so much quantitative at this point but qualitative in that they want to direct attention to a point that the seasonal variations might be of such a magnitude that alkenone proxy indications of a warmer Holocene than present might be reversed with more precise and seasonal resolved data The Lorenz paper shows two color coded maps of Holocene to present temperature changes from computer simulations one for the Dec Jan Feb months DJF and the other for the June July Aug months JJA The global change for DJF shows by eye ball a change of 0 14 degree C and for JJA it shows a change 0 6 degrees C Lorenz et al 2006 give a less than confident observation of phytoplankton growth and the resulting relationship of the alkenone proxy relationship to seasonal temperatures 39 Although the seasonal cycle of SST in the tropics is small phytoplankton production is not constant throughout the year It is reasonable that a change of seasonal insolation on the order of 10 is able to impact marine biological productivity If the alkenone production is thought to be highest during the month with the warmest water temperature in the mixed layer then the resemblance of reconstructed trends with the simulated trends of local summer can be taken as an indication that the time of maximum production may have changed with the insolation signal Lorenz s case is less than clear when from the link we have Like their land based relatives phytoplankton require sunlight water and nutrients for growth Because sunlight is most abundant at and near the sea surface phytoplankton remain at or near the surface The atmosphere is a rich source of carbon dioxide as millions of tons of this gas settle into the

    Original URL path: http://climateaudit.org/2007/01/02/lorenz-et-al-2006-tropical-cooling/ (2016-02-08)
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  • The Ocean2K “Hockey Stick” « Climate Audit
    the impacted fish with their purse nets dependent of course on the appropriate subsidy being paid them by government The Minister of Fish Rescue says that he is very much taken with the idea as long as the Ministry does not have to subsidize the drying and salting of the rescued fish MikeN Posted Sep 4 2015 at 3 33 PM Permalink Reply To paraphrase Kevin Costner s wife in Field of Dreams What s it got to do with football Don B Posted Sep 4 2015 at 4 38 PM Permalink Reply whatever image one might choose to describe its shape Hockey Stick is not one of them I choose to describe it as a ski jump on the beginner s hill Keeping with the winter sports theme Glenn999 Posted Sep 5 2015 at 7 18 AM Permalink Reply I m thinking spatula though some were ladle like Jay Currie Posted Sep 5 2015 at 5 34 PM Permalink Reply Hockey stick lying on its side with the blade s curve just barely visible Andrew M Garland Posted Sep 4 2015 at 4 59 PM Permalink Reply McIntyre above Only one of the 57 series has a noticeable HS shape and by coincidence no doubt it is the only SST series from this collection that was cited by Appell It seems to me that the 57 series are reconstructions of sea surface temperature over the last 2000 years How is that possible Really The sea surface temperature of large sections of sea in the distant past These are said to be derived from proxy data They measured some other thing and assumed that this other thing was associated with sea surface temperature to within a fraction of a degree How does one prove that association eliminate all of the known confounding factors and bound the unknown ones Are those proxies reliable compared to today s measurements to within a fraction of a degree 57 series all proxies of the same thing the average sea surface temperature in some location or in different locations They don t match one another In peasant terminology they should all squiggle in about he same ways or have the same slopes after some amount of smoothing They don t seem to by my eye So after running complicated statistical alterations themselves prone to error and artifact I don t believe the results 57 series which don t match all proxies of the same thing mutually disprove the reliability of one another and the reconstructions Am I an uninformed peasant mpainter Posted Sep 4 2015 at 5 49 PM Permalink Reply Andrew Welcome to the world of climate science the paleoclimate reconstruction division unreconstructed Adam Gallon Posted Sep 5 2015 at 3 23 AM Permalink Reply Bang on target there Andrew The paleo reconstructors are well aware of this one of the Climategate emails noted this IIRC that all Skeptics had to do was point out how much variation there was and it d pretty well kill off their little industry admkoz Posted Sep 9 2015 at 9 05 AM Permalink Reply It s not quite that bad since the 57 series are from different parts of the ocean Lance Wallace Posted Sep 4 2015 at 5 38 PM Permalink Reply In the SI the authors state The reconstructions were selected from the Ocean2k metadatabase http www pages igbp org workinggroups ocean2k data They go on to provide the 7 criteria for selecting 57 datasets from this metadatabase It would have been nice if they had listed the datasets that did NOT make the cut Even nicer if they gave the reason for each database being deselected But they did not So I thought I would look at the complete set of datasets just to get an idea of the universe from which they selected but the link resulted in a 404 Not found error message I suppose further work would run it down but at that point I thought I better scrub down the outdoor furniture as suggested by the wife mpainter Posted Sep 4 2015 at 5 50 PM Permalink Reply Please let us know if you achieve any results in this most commendable endeavor kim Posted Sep 4 2015 at 7 24 PM Permalink Reply Yes very commendable I hope she s duly appreciative michael hart Posted Sep 4 2015 at 8 33 PM Permalink He could say Sorry honey I got a 404 on the outdoor furniture mpainter Posted Sep 4 2015 at 9 05 PM Permalink Reply And we will all be duly appreciative Maybe 4TimesAYear Posted Sep 4 2015 at 8 27 PM Permalink Reply Reblogged this on 4timesayear s Blog Steven Mosher Posted Sep 4 2015 at 10 56 PM Permalink Reply Appell has our paper listed as a HS he even said our instrument record was a proxy record Richard Drake Posted Sep 5 2015 at 12 31 PM Permalink Reply Stick appeaser Spence UK Posted Sep 5 2015 at 1 51 PM Permalink Reply When I told Appell the hockey stick was about the behaviour of temperatures in paleo times he accused me of lying and told me the stick was about 20th century temperatures He then corrected himself saying it was about temperatures whenever it goes back to apparently he couldn t remember Never has his eye off the ball our David davideisenstadt Posted Sep 8 2015 at 4 20 PM Permalink Reply I emailed him a comment by RGB duke and he threatened to report me to the police for harassment Stacey Posted Sep 5 2015 at 4 05 AM Permalink Reply Glad to see you back on the trail of the lonesome pine I suppose you mus be deflated with all that work you have carried out on footballs The guy got off Sorry slightly ot kim Posted Sep 5 2015 at 4 53 AM Permalink Reply It doesn t even occur to them does it that they better hope this reversal of 1800 years of cooling is predominantly natural If man has reversed that sort of trend we ve used a pitifully inadequate method to sustain it The Little Ice Age was the coldest depths of the Holocene and we re at half precession If the rebound is natural we have a chance of avoiding for longer the cliff at the end of the Holocene Steve let s not coatrack this larger issue kim Posted Sep 5 2015 at 10 29 AM Permalink Reply Okay I ll get me reconstructed hat Thanks for not zamboni ing my large pile of issue Jeff Id Posted Sep 5 2015 at 9 43 AM Permalink Reply I ve often written that it would be amazingly cool to see historic global temperatures After so many hours spent to actually know what the Earth climate had done hundreds and thousands of years ago would be a dream come true I still look at the noisy lines on the graph with hope that some piece of history will show itself The average of the lines is smooth enough that it appears to be a signal but alas with the various problems in the data it just isn t something we can conclude about These data simply don t appear to be very strongly related to temperature It is somewhat interesting to see a higher temp in history with so little uptick in recent years but only because so many proxies take on that shape boreholes for instance I can t convince myself that temperature is the cause of any of them mpainter Posted Sep 5 2015 at 10 30 AM Permalink Reply There is only one proxy that has a demonstrated relationship to temperature d18O It works very well in ice cores and foram deposits but is tricky when applied to cave deposits or corals None of the other proxies have such a well demonstrated relation to temperature For a reliable charting of the climate history of the Holocene see ice core d18O reconstructions These tell an entirely different tale than what the ideologues are trying to peddle with their dubious proxies richardswarthout Posted Sep 5 2015 at 3 16 PM Permalink Reply mpainter Can you post a plot that shows ice core proxie reconstructions or provide a link Thank you Richard mpainter Posted Sep 5 2015 at 4 26 PM Permalink Sorry no link I have seen the d18O paleoclimate reconstructions often my visits to climate blogs This is true science originating over fifty years ago very well understood precise definite at least in ice cores and ocean sediments forams All of your Pleistocene reconstructions are by d18O ice cores The paleoclimate of the whole of the Tertiary has been reconstructed from sediments forams There is really no need for any other temperature proxy but the ideologues hate it like the plague because it utterly refutes the message that they try to push with their tree rings etc However cave deposits and coral d18O are tricky due to other variables Our host Steve McIntyre performed a tree ring study using d18O an original That study was several years ago and you can locate in the archives richardswarthout Posted Sep 5 2015 at 5 29 PM Permalink mpainter Thank you harkin1 Posted Sep 5 2015 at 11 08 AM Permalink Reply So an appell picks cherries and produces a lemon richardswarthout Posted Sep 5 2015 at 3 46 PM Permalink Reply Steve While series with high resolution through the 20th century are not as common as one would like or expect there are some I ve done my own calculations with 20 year bins and will report on them in a later post I have followed your past posts on this and look forward to the upcoming post What wait do you give to Oppo et al 2009 and Rosehthal et al 2013 The Rosenthal paper provides evidence that the cores I believe from the Pacific Warm Pool represents the intermediate waters of the entire pacific Does this relate to the SST What is gained in the Ocean2K Reconstruction by combining all series in one plot Are not the locations of each series extremely important some locations more relative to the global SST than other locations Steve Ocean2K say that they do not include thermocline estimates Thus Rosenthal 2013 which uses thermocline forams is not included Whether it really represents intermediate waters of the entire PAcific is not necessarily graven in stone richardswarthout Posted Sep 5 2015 at 5 30 PM Permalink Reply Thank you Steve Neville Posted Sep 5 2015 at 6 44 PM Permalink Reply I agree with mpainter and wonder why the ice core studies show such a different result than some of the other proxies The Antarctic ice core studies of PAGES 2K showed a warmer period from 141 AD to 1250AD than temps today There was also a 30 year warmer spike from 1671 to 1700 as well The Great Walrus Posted Sep 5 2015 at 10 46 PM Permalink Reply The real reason for the 57 varieties from Wikipedia Heinz 57 is a shortened form of a historical advertising slogan 57 Varieties by the H J Heinz Company located in Pittsburgh Pennsylvania It has come to mean anything that is made from a large number of parts or origins It was developed from the marketing campaign that told consumers about the numerous products available from the Heinz company The first product to be promoted under the new 57 varieties slogan was prepared horseradish By 1940 the term Heinz 57 had become so synonymous with the company the name was used to market a steak sauce omanuel Posted Sep 5 2015 at 11 57 PM Permalink Reply Meltdown Proof Nuclear Reactors http junkscience com 2015 09 05 meltdown proof nuke reactors i vote yes Willis Eschenbach Posted Sep 6 2015 at 12 28 AM Permalink Reply raising the spectre that scarce resources would have to be diverted to providing swimming lessons to impacted fish Oooh that s gonna sting As usual Steve your insights and research far outpace that of the original authors and with your two successful predictions about Pages2K and the Bona Churchill results you ve made more successful predictions of the future than all the alarmists put together Thanks as always for your outstanding blog w See owe to Rich Posted Sep 6 2015 at 3 23 AM Permalink Reply Yes I loved that gentle sarcasm too And it s great to see ClimateAudit getting back to climate rather than weather on a football field Still having read the Financial Post article I can see why those statistical inferences intrigued SM Rich Paul Courtney Posted Sep 6 2015 at 9 39 AM Permalink Reply Not to mention the CAGW caused increased wind velocity too strong for birds to fly Thankfully the Federal agency for teaching birds to fly around windmills is fully staffed and will only need an increased budget to cover this extra task We ll need a whole new agency to make sure no fish is left behind tomdesabla Posted Sep 8 2015 at 3 24 PM Permalink Reply Why does all this teaching of fish to swim and birds to fly remind me of the Chinese Government and their work with Lucky their captive panda that they tried to reintroduce to the wild Supposedly they taught him how to howl and bite etc so he could survive back in the wild The result Wild pandas killed him Neville Posted Sep 6 2015 at 4 04 AM Permalink Reply BTW Dr Roy Spencer has posted the August results for UAH V 6 August is up 0 1c from July http www drroyspencer com 2015 09 uah v6 0 global temperature update for aug 2015 0 28 c mpainter Posted Sep 6 2015 at 8 00 AM Permalink Reply Data bins of 200 years I too eagerly await Steve s contribution to this study with his smaller data bins I also would be curious about any post 1900 data Blasphemous thought global SST anomalies are more determined by rate of meridional ocean overturning circulation than by air temperature by an order of magnitude Richard Drake Posted Sep 6 2015 at 8 20 PM Permalink Reply The blasphemous thought sounds like common sense to me How far beyond the pail can one get j ferguson Posted Sep 7 2015 at 5 45 AM Permalink Reply pail Craig Loehle Posted Sep 6 2015 at 9 37 AM Permalink Reply Sometimes one must conclude that what you are trying to do in science simply will not work Building a perpetual motion machine creating a human horse hybrid pills to turn us all into Einstein just give it up At least 80 of these proxies fall into that category either they don t measure temperature have too much noise or are confounded by other factors For example Esper has long believed that the usual methods for tree ring reconstruction damp out centennial scale fluctuations signals so he tried a new approach Esper J Konter O Krusic P J Saurer M Holzkämper S and Büntgen U 2015 Long term summer temperature variations in the Pyrenees from detrended stable carbon isotopes Geochronometria 42 53 59 I can t vouch for his approach but I applaud the effort Hu McCulloch Posted Sep 6 2015 at 11 35 AM Permalink Reply Although the Phys org press release quotes Evans in the third person it was provided to them by UMd Evans university so it wouldn t be at all surprising if he write it himself mpainter Posted Sep 6 2015 at 4 15 PM Permalink Reply Nor would it surprise anyone The name is Michael Evans He is Associate Professor at the University of Maryland s Department of Geology and Earth System Science Interdisplinary Center In short that institution has binned geology with the AGW crowd Horrid Hu McCulloch Posted Sep 6 2015 at 3 19 PM Permalink Reply In Section 7 of the SI the authors explain how they tested for significance of bin to bin changes We estimated the bin to bin change in standardized temperature dT as the median of all possible 2 point slopes calculable from the available values in the nth and n 1 th bins Supplementary Table S13 The Wilcoxon signed rank test was used to test the null hypothesis that the median slope dT was equal to zero and the z statistic approximation for large sample sizes was used Davis 2002 Thus for example in bin 1100 they have 45 observations and in bin 1300 they have 49 This makes at most 45 series on which they have observed the change and on which they can reasonably use the Wilcoxon signed rank test to test for median change 0 Instead they construct 45 x 49 2205 unmatched pairs of observations and pretend that these are 2205 independent paired observations of changes In fact they re not independent and generally not even matched They have therefore grossly inflated the nominal sample size and hence their z scores It might still be that some of the bin to bin changes are significant but they haven t shown that They have enough series some of which are close together that spatial correlation that violates the test s assumption that pairs are drawn independently may be of concern However this is a much more subtle problem than their inflation of the sample sizes by duplication of data The test also assumes that the unspecified distribution of changes is symmetric about its median of 0 even though this is rarely stated explicitly When symmetry is present this makes the signed rank test more powerful than a simple signs test However it s not an unreasonable assumption in the present instance Hu McCulloch Posted Sep 7 2015 at 8 50 AM Permalink Reply The absurdity of the z scores in SI section 7 and SI table S13 should have been a clue to the reviewers for Nature Geoscience if not to the authors that something was amiss with their calculations For the change in temperature between 1100 and 1300 they report a z score of 14 80 which implies a 2 tailed p value the probability of a type I error of 1 47e 49 Such certainty can never be obtained from noisy data like this Craig Loehle Posted Sep 7 2015 at 10 00 AM Permalink Reply Great catch I have never seen anyone do such a thing The observations ARE paired in the real world they are measurements at two times at the same site To compare all pairs is really unique Hu McCulloch Posted Sep 7 2015 at 10 22 AM Permalink Reply Thanks Craig Using the same innovative technology they are able to claim that even the minuscule decline from 300 median 0 58 sdu to 500 median 0 39 sdu barely visible on the graph is way significant with a z score of 3 58 and a p value of 00003 I d guess that running the test correctly would reduce their z scores by factors of 6 to 7 leaving maybe two of the declines 1100 1300 and 1300 1500 just significant at the 5 level Michael Jankowski Posted Sep 6 2015 at 8 02 PM Permalink Reply The spaghetti of FAQ Fig 1 is ridiculous I have a hard time believing the error envelope wouldn t include the entirety of the bins Streetcred Posted Sep 7 2015 at 4 33 AM Permalink Reply Posted Sep 4 2015 at 10 57 AM and still no response from the bad appel this must be a record somewhere in the world Hu McCulloch Posted Sep 7 2015 at 9 37 AM Permalink Reply Contrary to my earlier comments above at http climateaudit org 2015 09 04 the ocean2k hockey stick comment 763048 it occurs to me now that it would be quite easy to recover the temperature units from their composite of the standardized series They have divided each series x i by its standard deviation sd i and then have taken the average of these n series The coefficient on each x i is therefore 1 n sd i Since these coefficients don t add to 1 this is not a weighted average and the resulting series no longer has temperature units However if the resulting composite is simply multiplied by n sum 1 sd i then it is a weighted average and the temperature units are restored without re calibration In fact under the assumption of this exercise that each temperature calibrated series consists of a common global temperature plus a variable amount of noise this weighted average is in fact a move in the direction of the theoretically optimal Weighted Least Squares rather than in the opposite direction as I had feared the variance of each series will be the variance of the common signal plus the variance of its noise so that the procedure will in fact give less weight to the worst series However any average weighted or unweighted runs up against the problem I mentioned in my earlier comment that Classical Calibration Estimates UC s CCE are the ratio of two normal random variables and hence have infinite absolute first moments and so may not obey a Law of Large Numbers A median based estimator might therefore be more appropriate A median analogue of WLS would be the following Take the equally weighted median of all the series at each point in time Compute the Mean Absolute Deviation MAD across time of each series from the common medians Then assign Importance Weights as in Monte Carlo importance sampling to each series proportional to 1 MAD i and scaled to sum to 1 Then take the weighted median of the series using these importance weights in place of 1 n Use the signs test appropriately modified for the weighting to construct a confidence interval or if you are willing to assume symmetry the Wilcoxon signed rank test Guillaume Leduc Posted Sep 7 2015 at 6 44 PM Permalink Reply it occurs to me now that it would be quite easy to recover the temperature units from their composite of the standardized series Wow Hu it s GREAT you re a GENIUS FYI next time instead of re multiplying by n sum 1 sd i just click on the articles links provided everywhere to get the C numbers or perhaps you just enjoy the idea that the other idiots think that you re smart in such a case just go ahead with your little equations Ed Snack Posted Sep 7 2015 at 7 05 PM Permalink Reply Nice Another snip coauthor heard from Hu McCulloch Posted Sep 7 2015 at 10 06 PM Permalink Reply I see a list of URLs of the temperature calibrated input proxies in the SI but no link to the composite reconstruction in dC values Perhaps you can point us to the page and paragraph PS Ed Leduc is one of the co authors of the McGregor Evans et al study miker613 Posted Sep 8 2015 at 7 46 AM Permalink Leduc is one of the co authors of the McGregor Evans et al study I m sorry to hear that He has done a real good job as presenting himself as a partisan rather than a scientist Ed Snack Posted Sep 10 2015 at 3 57 PM Permalink Hu I got that but based on the snark my opinion stands Sucks to have to polish turds like this because consensus doesn t Guillaume seanbrady Posted Sep 14 2015 at 4 47 PM Permalink Is it possible that the comment is not actually from Guillaume Leduc but from a troll using his name to stir the pot I half expected the last sentence to continue with In such a case just go ahead with your little equations I don t want to talk to you no more you empty headed animal food trough wiper I fart in your general direction Your mother was a hamster and your father smelt of elderberries Steve McIntyre Posted Sep 8 2015 at 7 50 AM Permalink Reply Dear Dr Leduc while the members of your team may be knowledgeable about foraminifera none of the authors to my knowledge are experienced statisticians In my opinion the paper makes a number of dubious methodological choices not least of which are various decisions to degrade data including the decision to bin in 200 year periods and standardize this data a topic on which I plan to post I don t know whether you fully understand the degree of data degradationm but here s what you did to six high resolution some better than 10 year series Two series Pahnke were NA ed out as only in one bin Four series were in two bins and all were set at sqrt 2 2 as shown below extracted from your archive This data degradation is really stupid Also note that the Pahnke data has data for two bins as well but was incorrectly transcribed in your dataset though this clerical error is not material to the results You might also be sure that your facts are right before being quite so chippy I have looked closely at the SI to the article and it does not include the reconstructions as re scaled from SD Units to deg C nor is such calculation shown in the source code which ends with the calculation of Figure 2 Please note that Hu s interest here was in the reconstruction as he and I recognize that the authors have commendably archived their data as used admkoz Posted Sep 8 2015 at 9 21 AM Permalink Is what they did really to make well over half the cells read NaN Or is that just on my screen Hu McCulloch Posted Sep 8 2015 at 11 10 AM Permalink Admkoz It s normal for missing data to be coded as NaN Not a Number since a blank might be misinterpreted as a zero Programs like Matlab and R will recognize this and even have functions that will take averages etc of only the non NaN values Some of the proxy series have no data in several of the bins and hence will be coded NaN there It will be interesting to see what they did with a proxy that had data for only half a bin is it the average of the available data or is it NaN since it is incomplete It will be doubly interesting to learn where these sqrt 2 2 s came from Michael Jankowski Posted Sep 8 2015 at 12 16 PM Permalink That was quite a polite response to a horrible and unprofessional drive by snark from a co author As usual your behavior is commendable Steve even though it had been directed at Hu and not you personally mpainter Posted Sep 8 2015 at 4 34 PM Permalink I have examined the links to the names of the fifteen authors and their fields of study are climatology paleoclimatology oceanography earth science geochemistry biology etc Not one has any mathematical or statistical expertise I doubt that it occurred to any that their study would wind up being dissected at Climate Audit admkoz Posted Sep 9 2015 at 9 08 AM Permalink Hu McCullough The problem I have is I think an issue of calibration The author regularly posts things that make the study look like something I would describe as laughably wrong He then uses a descriptor such as data degradation I am left wondering whether I have misunderstood or whether it s just Canadian understatement Geoff Sherrington Posted Sep 10 2015 at 2 30 AM Permalink Steve that 0 7071 catch is a beaut example of what I have been rabbiting about over at Judith s My contention is that people working with numbers can gain a feel for them that sometimes says Hello there s a number I know better look into this I suspect there are many numbers people who have in their minds a set of numbers useful for work better than looking them up Examples sin 30 0 5 sin 60 0 8660 tan 45 1 pi 3 141592653 Main Fibonacci series 1 1 2 3 5 8 13 21 etc found in the patterns of seed growth in flowers sqrt 2 1 4142 sqrt 3 1 7221 sqt 0 5 0 70710678 0 5 sqrt 2 A solid correlation coefficient is greater than 0 8 speed of light in vacuum 299 792 458 m sec and so on depending a little on your discipline Australians use toilet paper at a velocity over 1 500 km hr faster than the speed of sound Normal body temperature is around 38 deg C Rust On Your Gear Box Is Vile for colours of the rainbow For chemists LIttle BEryl Bates Cries Nightly Over Freddy NAughty Maggie ALan SIngs Poor Sappy CLod to remember the start of the periodic table Gas constant R is 0 082057 L atm mol 1K 1 and so on Those who lack the feel for numbers are prone to carry too many or too few places of significance and might well miss that 0 7071 figure which casts a whole new significance on the data Am I being led by my mind into a realm of foolishness or do others do this too Geoff jeez Posted Sep 10 2015 at 3 13 AM Permalink Geoff I live walking distance from http www sparcsf org and many others So I m with you mpainter Posted Sep 8 2015 at 2 03 PM Permalink Reply Guillaume Leduc given as CNRS Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique France Area of study Paleoclimatology Paleooceanography Seems to have a good command of English Listed as forth of fifteen I think authors of the Oceans 2K study Guillaume congratulations on getting your study published I wonder if you would share with us the reasons for the lengthy interval before publication My guess would be the choosing of a methodology for treating and presenting the data and the lengthy conferences that this process would entail Is this correct kim Posted Sep 9 2015 at 10 29 AM Permalink Sing a song of sixpence The pie is full of lies Break the breaded crust whence Out swarm all the flies The Duke is in his counting house His servant piles it high He scurries so the tim rous mouse The Masque of Paris nigh admkoz Posted Sep 8 2015 at 9 30 AM Permalink Reply I am not a statistician and have no experience with statistics and am more than happy to be shown to be wrong but I just don t get how it is at all valid to average together the standard deviations of different series and then attempt to convert that back to deg C Obviously if you take two random series with two totally different standard deviations and you graph those series separately it would make sense to graph them in SD units if you are trying to show how much they changed But I just don t get how anything meaningful happens when you combine those two in SD units One series could have a standard deviation that is 100 times the other series That smaller series could go up by 10 standard deviations and it would be utterly meaningless in terms of the combined system It would be interesting in terms of the smaller series itself but nothing of relevance for the overall system necessarily happened My salary plods along with a very low standard deviation while my minuscule stock holdings jump all over the place in value However the stocks could go up 10 times more than they usually do without me being more than 1 richer for the year I d love to be able to convert the SD units back to dollars and conclude that I was 1000 richer but sadly that does not work Michael Jankowski Posted Sep 7 2015 at 11 51 AM Permalink Reply Makes me wonder what Mann s reconstructions such as http www ncdc noaa gov paleo pubs mann2003b mann2003b html would look like binned especially under a methodology which is not mining for hockey sticks Seems at first glance that such a global land ocean reconstruction would devastate most of his notable conclusions especially considering how much weight the oceans should get compared to land Richard Drake Posted Sep 7 2015 at 12 34 PM Permalink Reply Oh that they were binned Michael Jankowski Posted Sep 7 2015 at 8 18 PM Permalink Reply Second their money graphic is denominated in SD Units rather than deg C anomaly even though all of the 57 series in their database alkenone Mg Ca foraminifera are denominated in deg C This seems to me and is a pointless degradation of the data that ought to be avoided Particularly when they want to be able to express the decline in deg C as they do in a later table To do so they convert their composite back from SD Units to deg C anomaly using a complicated home made technique I think that there s an easy way of accomplishing what they want to do using conventional statistical techniques I ll show this in a subsequent post According to a post here from a supposed co author the easy way to do it is to just click on the articles links provided everywhere to get the deg C numbers admkoz Posted Sep 8 2015 at 9 31 AM Permalink Reply Which is great for the individual series but not the composite reconstruction John A Hunter Posted Sep 8 2015 at 12 53 AM Permalink Reply Until about 3 months ago I was a lifelong true believer in CAGW then I found this Blog and have been researching both sides since I am astounded at what passes for science in the Alarmist camp and am now convinced that there is NO dependable Alarmist research that is there is so much bias that I can t trust any of it This is a tragedy because we are wasting money and effort that should be used to study the Whole climate system There Will be huge volcanoes or other apocalyptic events as seen on the used to be about Science Channel for which we will need that information to That was by way of introduction as I am a first time poster The comment I wanted to make about this thread is that looking at graphs of Milankovic cycles there appears to be some mechanism that makes temperatures fall relatively slowly during a cooling period and each cooling ends with a much more rapid warming It s obvious looking at the 100 000 year cycles but seems to be true at all scales Does this process have a name If this is a genuine phenomenon then we should be expecting rapid warming now as we come out of the LIA even 20 times faster than we cooled It seems that we should anticipate a hockey stick under natural forcing Then proof of AGW would require some sort of Super Hockey Stick In other words the alarmist not only need to demonstrate a hockey stick but that is steeper than all other natural hockey sticks Or am I drinking out of the toilet David Jay Posted Sep 8 2015 at 11 25 AM Permalink Reply John Nice to have you joining the discussion Let me make a quick observation Steve likes to keep his posts narrowly tailored to the subject of the post Your question would probably receive more responses at one of the more generalist skeptic blogs Can t speak to your source of hydration kim Posted Sep 8 2015 at 7 32 PM Permalink Reply Respect for the Porcelain Empress embraced oft of Sunday Morning Coming Down javiervinos Posted Sep 15 2015 at 8

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  • Ocean sediment « Climate Audit
    MD99 2275 sicre Comments 18 Alkenone Divergence in Peru Apr 9 2013 6 03 PM Gutierrez et al GRL 2011 pdf here data here is another very high resolution alkenone series that is well dated in the 20th century It was taken in an upwelling zone offshore Peru at a similar latitude to Quelccaya Like the high resolution series offshore Morocco and Namibia it shows a sharp decline in alkenone estimated SST in By Steve McIntyre Also posted in Proxies Uncategorized Tagged alkenone B0604 chile GeoB7139 GeoB7139 2 marcott peru Comments 35 Alkenone Divergence Apr 9 2013 12 07 PM While there are disappointingly few high resolution alkenone ocean cores with 20th century resolution there are a few Given the importance of this class of proxy in Marcott et al one would have thought the performance of high resolution alkenones in the 20th century would have been of interest to Marcott et al but they were silent By Steve McIntyre Also posted in Proxies Tagged alkenone geob6008 geob8331 leduc marcott mcgregor Comments 35 Bent Their Core Tops In Mar 19 2013 12 15 PM In today s post I m going to show Marcott Shakun redating in several relevant cases The problem as I ve said on numerous occasions has nothing to do with the very slight recalibration of radiocarbon dates from CALIB 6 0 1 essentially negligible in the modern period in discussion here but with Marcott Shakun core top redating By Steve McIntyre Also posted in Multiproxy Studies Uncategorized Tagged alkenone birdmen marcott md01 2421 MD95 2011 MD95 2043 OCE326 GGC30 Comments 337 Older posts Tip Jar The Tip Jar is working again via a temporary location Pages About Blog Rules and Road Map CA Assistant CA blog setup Contact Steve Mc Econometric References FAQ 2005 Gridded Data High Resolution Ocean Sediments Hockey Stick Studies Proxy Data Station Data Statistics and R Subscribe to CA Tip Jar Categories Categories Select Category AIT Archiving Nature Science climategate cg2 Data Disclosure and Diligence Peer Review FOIA General Holocene Optimum Hurricane Inquiries Muir Russell IPCC ar5 MBH98 Replication Source Code Spot the Hockey Stick Modeling Hansen Santer UK Met Office Multiproxy Studies Briffa Crowley D Arrigo 2006 Esper et al 2002 Hansen Hegerl 2006 Jones Mann 2003 Jones et al 1998 Juckes et al 2006 Kaufman 2009 Loehle 2007 Loehle 2008 Mann et al 2007 Mann et al 2008 Mann et al 2009 Marcott 2013 Moberg 2005 pages2k Trouet 2009 Wahl and Ammann News and Commentary MM Proxies Almagre Antarctica bristlecones Divergence Geological Ice core Jacoby Mann PC1 Medieval Noamer Treeline Ocean sediment Post 1980 Proxies Solar Speleothem Thompson Yamal and Urals Reports Barton Committee NAS Panel Satellite and gridcell Scripts Sea Ice Sea Level Rise Statistics Multivariate RegEM Spurious Steig at al 2009 Surface Record CRU GISTEMP GISTEMP Replication Jones et al 1990 SST Steig at al 2009 UHI TGGWS Uncategorized Unthreaded Articles CCSP Workshop Nov05 McIntyre McKitrick 2003 MM05 GRL MM05 EE NAS Panel Reply to Huybers Reply to

    Original URL path: http://climateaudit.org/category/proxies/ocean-sediment/ (2016-02-08)
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  • pages2k « Climate Audit
    the publication of PAGES2K I pointed out that the Igaliku lake sediment proxy had been contaminated by modern agricultural runoff The post attracted many comments Nick Stokes vigorously opposed the surmise that the Igaliku series had been contaminated by modern agriculture and or that such contamination should have been taken into account by Kaufman By Steve McIntyre Also posted in Uncategorized Tagged igaliku kaufman pages2k stokes Comments 113 PAGES2K vs the Hanhijarvi Reconstruction Oct 7 2014 11 04 PM The PAGES2K 2013 Arctic reconstruction of Kaufman et al has attracted considerable attention as a non Mannian hockey stick However it s been fraught with problems since day one including a major re statement of results in August 2014 McKay and Kaufman 2014 pdf in which Kaufman conceded without direct acknowledgement Climate Audit criticism that their results had been By Steve McIntyre Also posted in Uncategorized Tagged hanhijarvi hvitarvatn igaliku korhola MD99 2275 pages2k paico tingley Comments 43 PAGES2K More Upside Down Oct 4 2014 8 04 PM Does it matter whether proxies are used upside down or not Maybe not in Mann world where in response to our criticism at PNAS Mann claimed that it was impossible for him to use series upside down But unlike Mann Darrell Kaufman acknowledges responsibility for using proxies upside up Unfortunately he and the PAGES2K authors don t seem to be By Steve McIntyre Also posted in Uncategorized Tagged d18O P1003 pages2k Comments 50 Older posts Tip Jar The Tip Jar is working again via a temporary location Pages About Blog Rules and Road Map CA Assistant CA blog setup Contact Steve Mc Econometric References FAQ 2005 Gridded Data High Resolution Ocean Sediments Hockey Stick Studies Proxy Data Station Data Statistics and R Subscribe to CA Tip Jar Categories Categories Select Category AIT Archiving Nature Science climategate cg2 Data Disclosure and Diligence Peer Review FOIA General Holocene Optimum Hurricane Inquiries Muir Russell IPCC ar5 MBH98 Replication Source Code Spot the Hockey Stick Modeling Hansen Santer UK Met Office Multiproxy Studies Briffa Crowley D Arrigo 2006 Esper et al 2002 Hansen Hegerl 2006 Jones Mann 2003 Jones et al 1998 Juckes et al 2006 Kaufman 2009 Loehle 2007 Loehle 2008 Mann et al 2007 Mann et al 2008 Mann et al 2009 Marcott 2013 Moberg 2005 pages2k Trouet 2009 Wahl and Ammann News and Commentary MM Proxies Almagre Antarctica bristlecones Divergence Geological Ice core Jacoby Mann PC1 Medieval Noamer Treeline Ocean sediment Post 1980 Proxies Solar Speleothem Thompson Yamal and Urals Reports Barton Committee NAS Panel Satellite and gridcell Scripts Sea Ice Sea Level Rise Statistics Multivariate RegEM Spurious Steig at al 2009 Surface Record CRU GISTEMP GISTEMP Replication Jones et al 1990 SST Steig at al 2009 UHI TGGWS Uncategorized Unthreaded Articles CCSP Workshop Nov05 McIntyre McKitrick 2003 MM05 GRL MM05 EE NAS Panel Reply to Huybers Reply to von Storch Blogroll Accuweather Blogs Andrew Revkin Anthony Watts Bishop Hill Bob Tisdale Dan Hughes David Stockwell Icecap Idsos James Annan Jeff Id Josh Halpern

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  • appell « Climate Audit
    UK Met Office Multiproxy Studies Briffa Crowley D Arrigo 2006 Esper et al 2002 Hansen Hegerl 2006 Jones Mann 2003 Jones et al 1998 Juckes et al 2006 Kaufman 2009 Loehle 2007 Loehle 2008 Mann et al 2007 Mann et al 2008 Mann et al 2009 Marcott 2013 Moberg 2005 pages2k Trouet 2009 Wahl and Ammann News and Commentary MM Proxies Almagre Antarctica bristlecones Divergence Geological Ice core Jacoby Mann PC1 Medieval Noamer Treeline Ocean sediment Post 1980 Proxies Solar Speleothem Thompson Yamal and Urals Reports Barton Committee NAS Panel Satellite and gridcell Scripts Sea Ice Sea Level Rise Statistics Multivariate RegEM Spurious Steig at al 2009 Surface Record CRU GISTEMP GISTEMP Replication Jones et al 1990 SST Steig at al 2009 UHI TGGWS Uncategorized Unthreaded Articles CCSP Workshop Nov05 McIntyre McKitrick 2003 MM05 GRL MM05 EE NAS Panel Reply to Huybers Reply to von Storch Blogroll Accuweather Blogs Andrew Revkin Anthony Watts Bishop Hill Bob Tisdale Dan Hughes David Stockwell Icecap Idsos James Annan Jeff Id Josh Halpern Judith Curry Keith Kloor Klimazweibel Lubos Motl Lucia s Blackboard Matt Briggs NASA GISS Nature Blogs RealClimate Roger Pielke Jr Roger Pielke Sr Roman M Science of Doom Tamino Warwick Hughes Watts Up With That William Connolley WordPress com World Climate Report Favorite posts Bring the Proxies up to date Due Diligence FAQ 2005 McKitrick What is the Hockey Stick debate about Overview Responses to MBH Some thoughts on Disclosure Wegman and North Reports for Newbies Links Acronyms Latex Symbols MBH 98 Steve s Public Data Archive WDCP Wegman Reply to Stupak Wegman Report Weblogs and resources Ross McKitrick Surface Stations Archives Archives Select Month February 2016 January 2016 December 2015 September 2015 August 2015 July 2015 June 2015 April 2015 March 2015 February 2015 January 2015 December 2014 November 2014 October 2014 September 2014 August 2014 July 2014 June 2014 May 2014 April 2014 March 2014 February 2014 January 2014 December 2013 November 2013 October 2013 September 2013 August 2013 July 2013 June 2013 May 2013 April 2013 March 2013 January 2013 December 2012 November 2012 October 2012 September 2012 August 2012 July 2012 June 2012 May 2012 April 2012 March 2012 February 2012 January 2012 December 2011 November 2011 October 2011 September 2011 August 2011 July 2011 June 2011 May 2011 April 2011 March 2011 February 2011 January 2011 December 2010 November 2010 October 2010 September 2010 August 2010 July 2010 June 2010 May 2010 April 2010 March 2010 February 2010 January 2010 December 2009 November 2009 October 2009 September 2009 August 2009 July 2009 June 2009 May 2009 April 2009 March 2009 February 2009 January 2009 December 2008 November 2008 October 2008 September 2008 August 2008 July 2008 June 2008 May 2008 April 2008 March 2008 February 2008 January 2008 December 2007 November 2007 October 2007 September 2007 August 2007 July 2007 June 2007 May 2007 April 2007 March 2007 February 2007 January 2007 December 2006 November 2006 October 2006 September 2006 August 2006 July 2006 June 2006

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  • ocean2k « Climate Audit
    al 2008 Mann et al 2009 Marcott 2013 Moberg 2005 pages2k Trouet 2009 Wahl and Ammann News and Commentary MM Proxies Almagre Antarctica bristlecones Divergence Geological Ice core Jacoby Mann PC1 Medieval Noamer Treeline Ocean sediment Post 1980 Proxies Solar Speleothem Thompson Yamal and Urals Reports Barton Committee NAS Panel Satellite and gridcell Scripts Sea Ice Sea Level Rise Statistics Multivariate RegEM Spurious Steig at al 2009 Surface Record CRU GISTEMP GISTEMP Replication Jones et al 1990 SST Steig at al 2009 UHI TGGWS Uncategorized Unthreaded Articles CCSP Workshop Nov05 McIntyre McKitrick 2003 MM05 GRL MM05 EE NAS Panel Reply to Huybers Reply to von Storch Blogroll Accuweather Blogs Andrew Revkin Anthony Watts Bishop Hill Bob Tisdale Dan Hughes David Stockwell Icecap Idsos James Annan Jeff Id Josh Halpern Judith Curry Keith Kloor Klimazweibel Lubos Motl Lucia s Blackboard Matt Briggs NASA GISS Nature Blogs RealClimate Roger Pielke Jr Roger Pielke Sr Roman M Science of Doom Tamino Warwick Hughes Watts Up With That William Connolley WordPress com World Climate Report Favorite posts Bring the Proxies up to date Due Diligence FAQ 2005 McKitrick What is the Hockey Stick debate about Overview Responses to MBH Some thoughts on Disclosure Wegman and North Reports for Newbies Links Acronyms Latex Symbols MBH 98 Steve s Public Data Archive WDCP Wegman Reply to Stupak Wegman Report Weblogs and resources Ross McKitrick Surface Stations Archives Archives Select Month February 2016 January 2016 December 2015 September 2015 August 2015 July 2015 June 2015 April 2015 March 2015 February 2015 January 2015 December 2014 November 2014 October 2014 September 2014 August 2014 July 2014 June 2014 May 2014 April 2014 March 2014 February 2014 January 2014 December 2013 November 2013 October 2013 September 2013 August 2013 July 2013 June 2013 May 2013 April 2013 March 2013 January 2013 December 2012 November 2012 October 2012 September 2012 August 2012 July 2012 June 2012 May 2012 April 2012 March 2012 February 2012 January 2012 December 2011 November 2011 October 2011 September 2011 August 2011 July 2011 June 2011 May 2011 April 2011 March 2011 February 2011 January 2011 December 2010 November 2010 October 2010 September 2010 August 2010 July 2010 June 2010 May 2010 April 2010 March 2010 February 2010 January 2010 December 2009 November 2009 October 2009 September 2009 August 2009 July 2009 June 2009 May 2009 April 2009 March 2009 February 2009 January 2009 December 2008 November 2008 October 2008 September 2008 August 2008 July 2008 June 2008 May 2008 April 2008 March 2008 February 2008 January 2008 December 2007 November 2007 October 2007 September 2007 August 2007 July 2007 June 2007 May 2007 April 2007 March 2007 February 2007 January 2007 December 2006 November 2006 October 2006 September 2006 August 2006 July 2006 June 2006 May 2006 April 2006 March 2006 February 2006 January 2006 December 2005 November 2005 October 2005 September 2005 August 2005 July 2005 June 2005 May 2005 April 2005 March 2005 February 2005 January 2005 December 2004 October 2004 January 2000

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  • pages2k « Climate Audit
    11 01 PM The money quote in the PAGES2K abstract was that there wasn t any worldwide Little Ice Age of Medieval Warm Period and that AD1971 2000 temperatures were the highest in nearly 1400 years long before the Medieval Period There were no globally synchronous multi decadal warm or cold intervals that define a worldwide Medieval Warm Period or Little By Steve McIntyre Posted in pages2k Uncategorized Comments 65 The Third Warmest Arctic Century Oct 27 2014 9 43 PM PAGES2K 2013 unequivocally stated that the Arctic was warmest during the 20th century The Arctic was also warmest during the twentieth century although warmer during 1941 1970 than 1971 2000 according to our reconstruction McKay and Kaufman 2014 did not withdraw or amend the above statement instead reporting that the revision amplified the cooling trend prior to By Steve McIntyre Posted in pages2k Uncategorized Also tagged corrigendum kaufman mckay Comments 48 Millennial Quebec Tree Rings Oct 13 2014 10 55 AM In today s post I m going to discuss an important new 1000 year chronology from northern treeline spruce in Quebec Gennaretti et al 2014 PNAS here The chronology is interesting on multiple counts This is the first Quebec northern treeline chronology to include the medieval warm period Second it provides a long overdue crosscheck against the Jacoby D Arrigo chronologies including By Steve McIntyre Posted in climategate Uncategorized Also tagged big round gennaretti gifford miller hvitarvatn miller quebec Comments 43 Older posts Tip Jar The Tip Jar is working again via a temporary location Pages About Blog Rules and Road Map CA Assistant CA blog setup Contact Steve Mc Econometric References FAQ 2005 Gridded Data High Resolution Ocean Sediments Hockey Stick Studies Proxy Data Station Data Statistics and R Subscribe to CA Tip Jar Categories Categories Select Category AIT Archiving Nature Science climategate cg2 Data Disclosure and Diligence Peer Review FOIA General Holocene Optimum Hurricane Inquiries Muir Russell IPCC ar5 MBH98 Replication Source Code Spot the Hockey Stick Modeling Hansen Santer UK Met Office Multiproxy Studies Briffa Crowley D Arrigo 2006 Esper et al 2002 Hansen Hegerl 2006 Jones Mann 2003 Jones et al 1998 Juckes et al 2006 Kaufman 2009 Loehle 2007 Loehle 2008 Mann et al 2007 Mann et al 2008 Mann et al 2009 Marcott 2013 Moberg 2005 pages2k Trouet 2009 Wahl and Ammann News and Commentary MM Proxies Almagre Antarctica bristlecones Divergence Geological Ice core Jacoby Mann PC1 Medieval Noamer Treeline Ocean sediment Post 1980 Proxies Solar Speleothem Thompson Yamal and Urals Reports Barton Committee NAS Panel Satellite and gridcell Scripts Sea Ice Sea Level Rise Statistics Multivariate RegEM Spurious Steig at al 2009 Surface Record CRU GISTEMP GISTEMP Replication Jones et al 1990 SST Steig at al 2009 UHI TGGWS Uncategorized Unthreaded Articles CCSP Workshop Nov05 McIntyre McKitrick 2003 MM05 GRL MM05 EE NAS Panel Reply to Huybers Reply to von Storch Blogroll Accuweather Blogs Andrew Revkin Anthony Watts Bishop Hill Bob Tisdale Dan Hughes David Stockwell Icecap Idsos James Annan Jeff

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