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  • ghir « Climate Audit
    MBH98 Replication Source Code Spot the Hockey Stick Modeling Hansen Santer UK Met Office Multiproxy Studies Briffa Crowley D Arrigo 2006 Esper et al 2002 Hansen Hegerl 2006 Jones Mann 2003 Jones et al 1998 Juckes et al 2006 Kaufman 2009 Loehle 2007 Loehle 2008 Mann et al 2007 Mann et al 2008 Mann et al 2009 Marcott 2013 Moberg 2005 pages2k Trouet 2009 Wahl and Ammann News and Commentary MM Proxies Almagre Antarctica bristlecones Divergence Geological Ice core Jacoby Mann PC1 Medieval Noamer Treeline Ocean sediment Post 1980 Proxies Solar Speleothem Thompson Yamal and Urals Reports Barton Committee NAS Panel Satellite and gridcell Scripts Sea Ice Sea Level Rise Statistics Multivariate RegEM Spurious Steig at al 2009 Surface Record CRU GISTEMP GISTEMP Replication Jones et al 1990 SST Steig at al 2009 UHI TGGWS Uncategorized Unthreaded Articles CCSP Workshop Nov05 McIntyre McKitrick 2003 MM05 GRL MM05 EE NAS Panel Reply to Huybers Reply to von Storch Blogroll Accuweather Blogs Andrew Revkin Anthony Watts Bishop Hill Bob Tisdale Dan Hughes David Stockwell Icecap Idsos James Annan Jeff Id Josh Halpern Judith Curry Keith Kloor Klimazweibel Lubos Motl Lucia s Blackboard Matt Briggs NASA GISS Nature Blogs RealClimate Roger Pielke Jr Roger Pielke Sr Roman M Science of Doom Tamino Warwick Hughes Watts Up With That William Connolley WordPress com World Climate Report Favorite posts Bring the Proxies up to date Due Diligence FAQ 2005 McKitrick What is the Hockey Stick debate about Overview Responses to MBH Some thoughts on Disclosure Wegman and North Reports for Newbies Links Acronyms Latex Symbols MBH 98 Steve s Public Data Archive WDCP Wegman Reply to Stupak Wegman Report Weblogs and resources Ross McKitrick Surface Stations Archives Archives Select Month February 2016 January 2016 December 2015 September 2015 August 2015 July 2015 June 2015 April 2015 March 2015 February 2015 January 2015 December 2014 November 2014 October 2014 September 2014 August 2014 July 2014 June 2014 May 2014 April 2014 March 2014 February 2014 January 2014 December 2013 November 2013 October 2013 September 2013 August 2013 July 2013 June 2013 May 2013 April 2013 March 2013 January 2013 December 2012 November 2012 October 2012 September 2012 August 2012 July 2012 June 2012 May 2012 April 2012 March 2012 February 2012 January 2012 December 2011 November 2011 October 2011 September 2011 August 2011 July 2011 June 2011 May 2011 April 2011 March 2011 February 2011 January 2011 December 2010 November 2010 October 2010 September 2010 August 2010 July 2010 June 2010 May 2010 April 2010 March 2010 February 2010 January 2010 December 2009 November 2009 October 2009 September 2009 August 2009 July 2009 June 2009 May 2009 April 2009 March 2009 February 2009 January 2009 December 2008 November 2008 October 2008 September 2008 August 2008 July 2008 June 2008 May 2008 April 2008 March 2008 February 2008 January 2008 December 2007 November 2007 October 2007 September 2007 August 2007 July 2007 June 2007 May 2007 April 2007 March 2007 February 2007 January 2007 December 2006 November

    Original URL path: http://climateaudit.org/tag/ghir/ (2016-02-09)
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  • moberg « Climate Audit
    term precipitation reconstructions indicates a large scale intensification of the hydrological cycle coincident with the onset of industrialization and global By Steve McIntyre Posted in Esper et al 2002 Moberg 2005 Multiproxy Studies Also tagged baliunas treydte Comments 144 Mo Mo Moberg Sep 6 2005 11 01 AM Many of you read Moberg Some of you probably saw the following diagram showing the re combination from wavelets to yield the final reconstruction It looks like an even more complicated method than MBH98 science moves on Moberg Figure 2 So if I offered to show you plots of the wavelet decompositions of all 11 By Steve McIntyre Posted in Moberg 2005 Multiproxy Studies Also tagged agassiz Comments 61 Tip Jar The Tip Jar is working again via a temporary location Pages About Blog Rules and Road Map CA Assistant CA blog setup Contact Steve Mc Econometric References FAQ 2005 Gridded Data High Resolution Ocean Sediments Hockey Stick Studies Proxy Data Station Data Statistics and R Subscribe to CA Tip Jar Categories Categories Select Category AIT Archiving Nature Science climategate cg2 Data Disclosure and Diligence Peer Review FOIA General Holocene Optimum Hurricane Inquiries Muir Russell IPCC ar5 MBH98 Replication Source Code Spot the Hockey Stick Modeling Hansen Santer UK Met Office Multiproxy Studies Briffa Crowley D Arrigo 2006 Esper et al 2002 Hansen Hegerl 2006 Jones Mann 2003 Jones et al 1998 Juckes et al 2006 Kaufman 2009 Loehle 2007 Loehle 2008 Mann et al 2007 Mann et al 2008 Mann et al 2009 Marcott 2013 Moberg 2005 pages2k Trouet 2009 Wahl and Ammann News and Commentary MM Proxies Almagre Antarctica bristlecones Divergence Geological Ice core Jacoby Mann PC1 Medieval Noamer Treeline Ocean sediment Post 1980 Proxies Solar Speleothem Thompson Yamal and Urals Reports Barton Committee NAS Panel Satellite and gridcell Scripts Sea Ice Sea Level Rise Statistics Multivariate RegEM Spurious Steig at al 2009 Surface Record CRU GISTEMP GISTEMP Replication Jones et al 1990 SST Steig at al 2009 UHI TGGWS Uncategorized Unthreaded Articles CCSP Workshop Nov05 McIntyre McKitrick 2003 MM05 GRL MM05 EE NAS Panel Reply to Huybers Reply to von Storch Blogroll Accuweather Blogs Andrew Revkin Anthony Watts Bishop Hill Bob Tisdale Dan Hughes David Stockwell Icecap Idsos James Annan Jeff Id Josh Halpern Judith Curry Keith Kloor Klimazweibel Lubos Motl Lucia s Blackboard Matt Briggs NASA GISS Nature Blogs RealClimate Roger Pielke Jr Roger Pielke Sr Roman M Science of Doom Tamino Warwick Hughes Watts Up With That William Connolley WordPress com World Climate Report Favorite posts Bring the Proxies up to date Due Diligence FAQ 2005 McKitrick What is the Hockey Stick debate about Overview Responses to MBH Some thoughts on Disclosure Wegman and North Reports for Newbies Links Acronyms Latex Symbols MBH 98 Steve s Public Data Archive WDCP Wegman Reply to Stupak Wegman Report Weblogs and resources Ross McKitrick Surface Stations Archives Archives Select Month February 2016 January 2016 December 2015 September 2015 August 2015 July 2015 June 2015 April 2015 March 2015 February 2015

    Original URL path: http://climateaudit.org/tag/moberg/ (2016-02-09)
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  • oman « Climate Audit
    Mann et al 2008 Mann et al 2009 Marcott 2013 Moberg 2005 pages2k Trouet 2009 Wahl and Ammann News and Commentary MM Proxies Almagre Antarctica bristlecones Divergence Geological Ice core Jacoby Mann PC1 Medieval Noamer Treeline Ocean sediment Post 1980 Proxies Solar Speleothem Thompson Yamal and Urals Reports Barton Committee NAS Panel Satellite and gridcell Scripts Sea Ice Sea Level Rise Statistics Multivariate RegEM Spurious Steig at al 2009 Surface Record CRU GISTEMP GISTEMP Replication Jones et al 1990 SST Steig at al 2009 UHI TGGWS Uncategorized Unthreaded Articles CCSP Workshop Nov05 McIntyre McKitrick 2003 MM05 GRL MM05 EE NAS Panel Reply to Huybers Reply to von Storch Blogroll Accuweather Blogs Andrew Revkin Anthony Watts Bishop Hill Bob Tisdale Dan Hughes David Stockwell Icecap Idsos James Annan Jeff Id Josh Halpern Judith Curry Keith Kloor Klimazweibel Lubos Motl Lucia s Blackboard Matt Briggs NASA GISS Nature Blogs RealClimate Roger Pielke Jr Roger Pielke Sr Roman M Science of Doom Tamino Warwick Hughes Watts Up With That William Connolley WordPress com World Climate Report Favorite posts Bring the Proxies up to date Due Diligence FAQ 2005 McKitrick What is the Hockey Stick debate about Overview Responses to MBH Some thoughts on Disclosure Wegman and North Reports for Newbies Links Acronyms Latex Symbols MBH 98 Steve s Public Data Archive WDCP Wegman Reply to Stupak Wegman Report Weblogs and resources Ross McKitrick Surface Stations Archives Archives Select Month February 2016 January 2016 December 2015 September 2015 August 2015 July 2015 June 2015 April 2015 March 2015 February 2015 January 2015 December 2014 November 2014 October 2014 September 2014 August 2014 July 2014 June 2014 May 2014 April 2014 March 2014 February 2014 January 2014 December 2013 November 2013 October 2013 September 2013 August 2013 July 2013 June 2013 May 2013 April 2013 March 2013 January 2013 December 2012 November 2012 October 2012 September 2012 August 2012 July 2012 June 2012 May 2012 April 2012 March 2012 February 2012 January 2012 December 2011 November 2011 October 2011 September 2011 August 2011 July 2011 June 2011 May 2011 April 2011 March 2011 February 2011 January 2011 December 2010 November 2010 October 2010 September 2010 August 2010 July 2010 June 2010 May 2010 April 2010 March 2010 February 2010 January 2010 December 2009 November 2009 October 2009 September 2009 August 2009 July 2009 June 2009 May 2009 April 2009 March 2009 February 2009 January 2009 December 2008 November 2008 October 2008 September 2008 August 2008 July 2008 June 2008 May 2008 April 2008 March 2008 February 2008 January 2008 December 2007 November 2007 October 2007 September 2007 August 2007 July 2007 June 2007 May 2007 April 2007 March 2007 February 2007 January 2007 December 2006 November 2006 October 2006 September 2006 August 2006 July 2006 June 2006 May 2006 April 2006 March 2006 February 2006 January 2006 December 2005 November 2005 October 2005 September 2005 August 2005 July 2005 June 2005 May 2005 April 2005 March 2005 February 2005 January 2005 December 2004 October 2004

    Original URL path: http://climateaudit.org/tag/oman/ (2016-02-09)
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  • RC2730 « Climate Audit
    Hockey Stick Modeling Hansen Santer UK Met Office Multiproxy Studies Briffa Crowley D Arrigo 2006 Esper et al 2002 Hansen Hegerl 2006 Jones Mann 2003 Jones et al 1998 Juckes et al 2006 Kaufman 2009 Loehle 2007 Loehle 2008 Mann et al 2007 Mann et al 2008 Mann et al 2009 Marcott 2013 Moberg 2005 pages2k Trouet 2009 Wahl and Ammann News and Commentary MM Proxies Almagre Antarctica bristlecones Divergence Geological Ice core Jacoby Mann PC1 Medieval Noamer Treeline Ocean sediment Post 1980 Proxies Solar Speleothem Thompson Yamal and Urals Reports Barton Committee NAS Panel Satellite and gridcell Scripts Sea Ice Sea Level Rise Statistics Multivariate RegEM Spurious Steig at al 2009 Surface Record CRU GISTEMP GISTEMP Replication Jones et al 1990 SST Steig at al 2009 UHI TGGWS Uncategorized Unthreaded Articles CCSP Workshop Nov05 McIntyre McKitrick 2003 MM05 GRL MM05 EE NAS Panel Reply to Huybers Reply to von Storch Blogroll Accuweather Blogs Andrew Revkin Anthony Watts Bishop Hill Bob Tisdale Dan Hughes David Stockwell Icecap Idsos James Annan Jeff Id Josh Halpern Judith Curry Keith Kloor Klimazweibel Lubos Motl Lucia s Blackboard Matt Briggs NASA GISS Nature Blogs RealClimate Roger Pielke Jr Roger Pielke Sr Roman M Science of Doom Tamino Warwick Hughes Watts Up With That William Connolley WordPress com World Climate Report Favorite posts Bring the Proxies up to date Due Diligence FAQ 2005 McKitrick What is the Hockey Stick debate about Overview Responses to MBH Some thoughts on Disclosure Wegman and North Reports for Newbies Links Acronyms Latex Symbols MBH 98 Steve s Public Data Archive WDCP Wegman Reply to Stupak Wegman Report Weblogs and resources Ross McKitrick Surface Stations Archives Archives Select Month February 2016 January 2016 December 2015 September 2015 August 2015 July 2015 June 2015 April 2015 March 2015 February 2015 January 2015 December 2014 November 2014 October 2014 September 2014 August 2014 July 2014 June 2014 May 2014 April 2014 March 2014 February 2014 January 2014 December 2013 November 2013 October 2013 September 2013 August 2013 July 2013 June 2013 May 2013 April 2013 March 2013 January 2013 December 2012 November 2012 October 2012 September 2012 August 2012 July 2012 June 2012 May 2012 April 2012 March 2012 February 2012 January 2012 December 2011 November 2011 October 2011 September 2011 August 2011 July 2011 June 2011 May 2011 April 2011 March 2011 February 2011 January 2011 December 2010 November 2010 October 2010 September 2010 August 2010 July 2010 June 2010 May 2010 April 2010 March 2010 February 2010 January 2010 December 2009 November 2009 October 2009 September 2009 August 2009 July 2009 June 2009 May 2009 April 2009 March 2009 February 2009 January 2009 December 2008 November 2008 October 2008 September 2008 August 2008 July 2008 June 2008 May 2008 April 2008 March 2008 February 2008 January 2008 December 2007 November 2007 October 2007 September 2007 August 2007 July 2007 June 2007 May 2007 April 2007 March 2007 February 2007 January 2007 December 2006 November 2006 October 2006 September 2006 August

    Original URL path: http://climateaudit.org/tag/rc2730/ (2016-02-09)
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  • Marcott Mystery #1 « Climate Audit
    gov pub data paleo insecta chironomidae europe sweden abisko2004 txt The data for Lake 850 is identical Lake 850 and Lake Njulla are within a few minutes Longitude from each other in N Sweden Nick Stokes Posted Mar 14 2013 at 5 25 PM Permalink HaroldW The paper does something very similar To compare our Standard5 5 reconstruction with modern climatology we aligned the stack s mean for the interval 510 to 1450 yr B P where yr B P is years before 1950 CE with the same interval s mean of the global Climate Research Unit error in variables CRU EIV composite temperature record 2 which is in turn referenced to the 1961 1990 CE instrumental mean Fig 1A Paul Matthews Posted Mar 14 2013 at 5 53 PM Permalink Wow JeanS nails it again Read chapter 4 of Marcott s thesis HaroldW Posted Mar 14 2013 at 9 33 PM Permalink Thanks Nick I missed that bit Any idea why Marcott wouldn t have chosen to use the entire period of overlap Nick Stokes Posted Mar 14 2013 at 10 29 PM Permalink HaroldW I presume they are trying to maximize data overlap After 1450 Mann s numbers decrease and before 510 thinking backwards some Marcott proxies would not have data HaroldW Posted Mar 15 2013 at 7 14 AM Permalink Nick After 1450 BP Mann s numbers decrease and before 510 thinking backwards some Marcott proxies would not have data Yes that s just what I was thinking The early end of the overlap period is 1450 BP 500 AD due to Mann Figure 2C shows a falloff in RE earlier than that due to reduction of proxies IIRC On the recent end it can t be Mann s reconstruction which runs to 100 BP with plenty of proxies so it would seem to be due to some perceived limitation of the Marcott reconstruction later than 510 BP or 490 BP in the thesis Figure 4 3g of the thesis version shows an unexplained dotted line at proxies 40 which is crossed around 500 BP Perhaps they should have drawn the reconstruction with a dashed line after that To me that s just another reason to ignore the uptick which seems to be not robust for other reasons A more important point in the paper is the difference between the early optimum and recent temperatures So far I haven t seen criticism of this point Jeff Alberts Posted Mar 13 2013 at 9 16 PM Permalink If the data from 1890 on are not robust how can they make any claims about 20th century temperatures phizzics Posted Mar 13 2013 at 9 20 PM Permalink Am I wrong to be gobsmacked by Marcott s response I thought it was bad enough when he was quoted as saying that the rate of current warming is unprecedented He knows that the handle of his hockey stick doesn t have the temporal resolution necessary to know what earlier warming rates were Now he says that the blade isn t robust Did he at least get his name right Ross McKitrick Posted Mar 13 2013 at 9 25 PM Permalink By coincidence Science Editor in Chief Bruce Alberts was in Washington recently testifying before a House Committee on the importance Science places on authors sharing all their data being highly suspicious of their own results and releasing data and or code as necessary to permit others replicate their results Alberts described the journal s efforts to make data more readily accessible to scientists seeking to replicate or refute published findings He also responded to general concerns about scholarly papers that are found to be in error The journal has long required that all data necessary to understand access and extend the conclusions of the manuscript must be available to any reader of Science Alberts explained Science also recently strengthened its rules regarding access to computer codes needed to understand published results and it now requires all senior authors to sign off on each paper s primary conclusions To comply with such rules Alberts said scientists must be assured of long term federal support for critical research databases Scientists who want to assess published findings also need appropriate tools for working with data he added My conclusion Alberts said is that the standards are lower in some subfields of science than others and we need to work on setting higher standards He also urged individual scientists to more critically assess their own work It s easy to get a result that looks right when it s really wrong One can easily be fooled Every scientist must be trained to be highly suspicious about his or her results Since it s a House Committee rather than Senate there s a Republican chair As in who gets to issue follow up questions to witnesses Just sayin Steve good spotting It looks like Science s policy will get tested if Marcott fails to clarify the matter Skiphil Posted Mar 13 2013 at 9 48 PM Permalink Re Ross McKitrick Mar 13 21 25 These 3 may bear some follow up from the Commitee or from any interested online bystanders who can pose the right questions they all seem to have strong interest in issues of research transparency and replicability Testifying along with Alberts were Victoria Stodden an assistant professor of statistics at Columbia University Stanley Young assistant director for bioinformatics at the National Institutes of Statistical Sciences and Sayeed Choudhury associate dean for research data management at Johns Hopkins University and Hodson Director of the Digital Research and Curation Center Steven Mosher Posted Mar 13 2013 at 11 44 PM Permalink Victoria is a heroine in open data and code populartechnology Posted Mar 14 2013 at 4 22 AM Permalink Mosher why no cheerleading of Marcott et al here like at WUWT Personally I m with Robert Rhodes BEST on this as we discussed it earlier this week Its broadly consistent with other work and they had an interesting approach to handling the loss of high frequency signals with proxies that have resolutions varying between 20 and 500 years Steven Mosher Posted Mar 14 2013 at 12 56 PM Permalink Huh you have weird idea of cheerleading Their approach to handling the loss of high frequency is interesting Note what that says and what it doesnt say And the result is broadly consistent with other work Note what that says and what that doesnt say of course you read it as cheerleading That shows how you resolve ambiguity here is what cheerleading from me would look like Their work confirms what we already know Their method of handling loss of high frequency resolves all the issues populartechnology Posted Mar 14 2013 at 3 43 PM Permalink Oh my apologies I was clearly mistaken as there is obviously nothing to the tone of your comments at WUWT They just concluded that as much as 20 30 of the holocene may have been warmer than today and every savant here attacks a study they didnt read Mosher WUWT Steven Mosher Posted Mar 14 2013 at 11 27 PM Permalink And how does an attack on people who didnt read the study become cheerleading again I ve instructed you in what cheerleading looks like WRT my 20 30 comment Opps you stepped on it there as well Lets see Who wrote this days later after my observation So why did the editors of Science give the OSU paper the special treatment sending out press releases arranging interviews etc Perhaps they were captured by the authors claim that the planet today is warmer than it has been during 70 to 80 percent of the time over the past 11 300 years But as British climate expert David Whitehouse points out Of course another way to put this is that current temperatures are colder than 28 of the Holocene According to this research the temperatures seen in the 20th century were about average for the Holocene Funny When I point out this aspect I m a cheerleader Huh Singer makes the same point as I did using Whitehouse Go attack them savant Poptech Posted Mar 15 2013 at 7 56 PM Permalink Interesting McIntyre deleted my last comment Steve I discourage food fights bernie1815 Posted Mar 13 2013 at 9 28 PM Permalink Astonishing work in such a short period of time It is hard to credit that all the authors are really willing to sign on to this once they see that the data does not bear their bold assertions Does it make sense to send to send this analysis directly to all three and directly ask for comments Again you may meet with exactly the same lack of helpfulness but we will know that they are going to hang together geo Posted Mar 13 2013 at 11 13 PM Permalink Were I King for a Day I d ban all further use of robust except in the context of red wines and red spaghetti sauces Skiphil Posted Mar 13 2013 at 11 22 PM Permalink I thought robust should only be used in reference to bodily odors Keith DeHavelle Posted Mar 13 2013 at 11 22 PM Permalink Here s a brief three minutes on alkenones Note the sparseness of data involved We have fats now as fossils no algae bones And new puzzles yet to be solved Did they change with time over centuries From this distance it s quite hard to tell But folks measure to small fractions of degrees In the hopes that they ll add to the sell Keith DeHavelle Hu McCulloch Posted Mar 14 2013 at 10 42 AM Permalink Thanks Keith the video is a very informative introduction for people like me who had never heard of this proxy before dfhunter Posted Mar 14 2013 at 7 02 PM Permalink agree with Hu thanks for the ref Keith but the music did my head in 0 still learned something tho michael hart Posted Mar 15 2013 at 2 30 AM Permalink Some unsaturated ketones readily undergo addition elimination reactions with nucleophiles such as thiols and amines to regenerate the starting materials or compounds where the double bond isomerizes or shifts position along the chain In the cell these processes are likely enzyme controlled but I wouldn t be surprised to see these compounds as substrates for biochemical processes external to the organism that produced them as well as being sensitive to sunlight oxygen pH and temperature I certainly wouldn t describe them as robust molecules There are a lot of unanswered questions about sample handling and their use as temperature proxies in my opinion Simon Brassell Posted Mar 17 2013 at 10 36 PM Permalink There is a wealth of literature about alkenones as paleotemperature proxies see http www ldeo columbia edu peter Resources Seminar readings Herbert AlkReview Treatise 01 pdf that demonstrates the veracity of the method The characteristics of these alkenone structures Primarily C37 and C38 molecules with E configured unsaturation at 7 carbon spacing do not exhibit the chemical behavior you describe and they have been reported in sediments as old as early Aptian 120 Ma which surely qualifies them as robust w w wygart Posted Mar 15 2013 at 10 21 AM Permalink Informative enough video though I agree with DFhunter the music WAS rather painful Dr D Andrea also doesn t seemed to have learned from some of his colleagues that conflating the term proxy into thermometer can rile some viewers Dr D Andrea uses the word thermometer in place of proxy four times in the video and three times on his Ice Stories page he uses the word proxy zero times and reconstruct only once I won t call it disingenuous but I will say its annoying The video s a bit old 2008 so presumably he s gotten further in calibrating his critters since but here is a comment from Billy D Andrea on July 31st 2008 that adds some context to the video 1 We d like to calibrate against algae cultures grown at different temperatures That is why this field season was aimed at capturing the algae fom sic the lakes and keeping them alive We ll grow them at different temperatures and measure the degree of alkenone saturation they produce at different temps In the meantime I ve calibrated the degree of saturation to temperature using the thermocline of the lake Since the water temperature gets colder with depth in these lakes we filtered alkenones from different depths and measured the water temperature and alkenone saturation at these depths 2 Only a handful of organisms on the planet make alkenones and they are all members of the class of algae called Haptophyta 3 People assumed they were cell wall compounds for a long time and they are found there but recent work has shown alkenones to be present all throughout the cell 4 We evaluate the degree of saturation with a flame ionozation sic detector FID after the gas chromatograph An FID is much more quantitative than a mass spectrometer for measuring absolute concentrations Seems to me we need to know an awful lot more about these creatures before we start packaging them as thermometers D Andrea is just down the street from me maybe I will pay him a visit W 3 Betapug Posted Mar 13 2013 at 11 50 PM Permalink We are heading for somewhere that is far off from anything we have seen in the past 10 000 years it s through the roof In my mind we are heading for a different planet to the one that we have been used to said Jeremy Shakun of Harvard University a co author of the study http www independent co uk environment climate change the world is hottest it has been since the end of the ice age and the temperatures still rising 8525089 html Marcott admitted he was apprehensive about charging into the fully mobilized troll army but said he was grateful scientists like Mann had gone through hell before him to build a support network for harassed climate scientists Mann himself who literally wrote the book on attacks on climate scientists said in an email to Climate Desk that he was certain that professional climate change deniers will attack the study and the authors in an effort to discredit this important work especially given the close ties between the two scientists research http www theatlantic com technology archive 2013 03 were screwed 11 000 years worth of climate data prove it 273870 tomwys Posted Mar 14 2013 at 12 17 AM Permalink Does the lack of Robustness warrant the word Unprecedented I could live with Possible but apparently Mr Revkin couldn t Lance Wallace Posted Mar 14 2013 at 12 31 AM Permalink So if Science has strengthened its rules regarding access to the code would now be a good time to test that by asking Dr Marcott for the code Might clear up the Mystery faster than reverse engineering NikFromNYC Posted Mar 14 2013 at 12 50 AM Permalink This is a fun proxy type an armchair explanation of which is that cold blooded animals and smaller critters suffer overly stiff cell membranes in cold water so they add more double bonds to their long chain fatty acid membrane units to reduce crystallinity simply by being a different shape than usual Cholesterol acts in this arena too as a literal reinforcement beam DR UK Posted Mar 14 2013 at 3 20 AM Permalink Re NikFromNYC Mar 14 00 50 Apparently you can find the same effect in reindeers legs There was a similar gradient in composition of unsaturated triacylglycerol fatty acids in the fatty bone marrow from shoulder or hip to hooves making it clear that the hooves are normally much cooler The Fats of Life Pond 1998 p92 Hockey Schtick Posted Mar 14 2013 at 2 11 AM Permalink The authors infill missing data using a computer algorithm and state that without the infill data there would be 0 6C less warming over the past 60 years before the present 1890 1950 the effect of which would be to completely disappear their hockey stick blade http hockeyschtick blogspot com 2013 03 author admits blade of new hockey stick html Steve infilling is one issue but you ve got it backwards With infilled data the blade is eliminated there s something to complain about here but it s not as simple as you claim Mindert Eiting Posted Mar 14 2013 at 2 40 AM Permalink I thought that the meaning of robust is insensitive to departures from theoretical assumptions applying at some statistical procedure In his response letter the author uses not robust as applying at a result A result is not a procedure This gives me the impression of cargo cult wording for due to observational sampling procedural soft ware error Steve I wish you a lot of success but sooner than later the whole study should be replicated and published Steve paleoclimate has developed a sort of pidgin version of statistical language Their use of robust is an example Jos Posted Mar 14 2013 at 2 49 AM Permalink Steve From going through the actual underlying data I noted that basically there are only two time series that show an early 20th century upswing LAW DOME C Antarctic and Agassiz Renland Canadian Arctic See also figure 2 J K where the 30 90 N S stacks show a similar fast rise in temperature close to 0 BP Both also are one of the few to apparently provide information at a time step of 20 years This appears relevant as the supplementary information figure S10 shows that only the reconstruction with a 20 year time step has this upswing not in the 100 and 200 year time step reconstruction Steve Yup But neither ought to be contributing to the alkenone reconstruction I ve spent lots of time in the past on both Agassiz and Law Dome and will comment on each separately A Scott Posted Mar 14 2013 at 5 05 AM Permalink Re Jos Mar 14 02 49 Jos The EPICA DOME C data ends at BP 38 or 1912 It does show a sharp rise but that was from 1877 to 1886 increasing 3 46 deg C 2 69 deg C 1886 1895 alone It then fell nearly as sharply from 1895 to 1912 dropping 2 16 deg C The hockey stick in the Marcott graph appears to begin at approx 1900 with temps shown as falling the prior approx 100 years During the period 1895 to the last reading in 1912 for DOME C which is the period of DOME C that would fall within the blade the temp at DOME C dropped 2 16 deg C By all appearances that decline would more than offset the Agassiz Renland increase 1 54 deg C from 1880 to 1940 which the authors admit was the primary cause of the blade Something is still quite fishy it would seem Additionally I would note the DOME C data is highly irregular I copied last couple hundred years below and you can see large excursions in short time frames both up and down Which would seem to make it largely useless for any type short term assumptions http wattsupwiththat files wordpress com 2013 03 marcott a 10001 jpg w 640 h 430 EPICA DOME C Publish age Actual Published Temperature yr BP Year deg C 38 1912 0 8800 47 1903 1 8400 55 1895 3 0400 64 1886 0 3500 73 1877 0 4200 82 1868 0 0500 91 1859 0 0500 100 1850 0 5200 110 1840 0 7900 119 1831 0 5500 129 1821 1 1100 140 1810 0 3800 150 1800 0 4000 161 1789 1 0500 171 1779 0 2800 181 1769 0 7200 191 1759 1 2300 202 1748 0 5100 212 1738 2 4400 Nick Stokes Posted Mar 14 2013 at 6 34 AM Permalink Check Fig S10d That s just Antarctic and qualitatively seems to follow that behaviour though on a diminished scale nevilb Posted Mar 14 2013 at 8 44 AM Permalink Nick I know the commentators at CA like to poke fun at you but you are obviously a smart guy and I always think it is valuable to hear the other perspective I am genuinely curious how do you think Marcott was able to achieve the uptick Do you think the authors should have better disclosed their methodology and that they could have been more responsive in their reply to Steve s email Nick Stokes Posted Mar 14 2013 at 5 53 PM Permalink nevilb I don t know I originally thought it must have incorporated the Mann 2008 composite but now I don t I suspect that as Marcott seems to be saying that it comes from big fluctuations in a few proxies with data in the period The non robust spike probably would have been better not shown because it distracts from the logic of this kind of analysis Paleo is paleo and we find out about it as best we can by proxies Recent is much better covered by thermometers and proxy data especially from the few recent proxies is too uncertain to add information to that I think their Fig 3 it s not in the SI makes this logic clearer They show instrumental data from 1900 1909 and 2000 2009 against the distribution of proxy data The difference is considerable on that scale Then they show how modelled projections go way beyond this range Steven Mosher Posted Mar 14 2013 at 11 19 PM Permalink I don t know I originally thought it must have incorporated the Mann 2008 composite but now I don t I suspect that as Marcott seems to be saying that it comes from big fluctuations in a few proxies with data in the period That was my impression as well and the impression of some other folks knowledgeable in the field who I consulted so you re not alone in that FWIW Steve Marcott did not say this in the article but sort of admitted it when confronted with a question in my email Nor is this exactly right There are no big fluctuations in the relevant proxies The reason for the uptick is a little different Brandon Shollenberger Posted Mar 15 2013 at 12 16 AM Permalink For the life of me I cannot see how anyone reached that conclusion Jeff Norman Posted Mar 15 2013 at 6 39 AM Permalink Brandon I cannot see how anyone reached that conclusion using just the paleo data referenced in the paper knr Posted Mar 14 2013 at 3 26 AM Permalink not robust short for I knew that to please the IPCC do get this into AR5and to get the Team on board what this research needed to show the stick and so that is what I did Well with cleverly use of data you can just about prove anything Logicophilosophicus Posted Mar 14 2013 at 3 45 AM Permalink I am vaguely reminded of a controversy in the field of education dating back to 1968 Rosenthal and Jacobson identified the Pygmalion Effect In their study teachers were given false data on individual students prior attainment They found in particular that previously weaker students performed better on tests of IQ if the teacher had higher expectations i e deliberately heightened expectations during the teaching period The study was flawed in many ways as detailed by Elashoff and Snow 1970 but presumably because it showed what everyone wanted to believe about children s potential Pygmalion in the Classroom continued to be cited as an authority and still is Elashoff and Snow used a scattergun approach pointing out many flaws but the one which I always thought was the clincher is this the only group of students whose performance increased on the standardised test were students for whom there were no norms on the test I just googled Pymalion Effect and I see according to Wikipedia that it is alive and kicking When there is a great moral crusade any outlier will do Stacey Posted Mar 14 2013 at 4 14 AM Permalink In construction if a structure is not robust then it is likely to fail Robert Christopher Posted Mar 14 2013 at 5 21 AM Permalink the reconstruction over the past 60 yrs before present the years 1890 1950 CE is probably not robust We are not even sure it is not robust only probably Don Keiller Posted Mar 14 2013 at 6 19 AM Permalink It matters not a jot that the 1920 to 1940 uptick is not robust or an artifact The paper has achieved its primary purposes Headline news and to raise the Hockey Stick from the grave just in time for AR5 The duplicity of these guys is beyond belief knr Posted Mar 14 2013 at 6 33 AM Permalink You got it in one its actual scientific validity is not the important point that is its political usefulness to the cause We have been here many times before the original scare gets big coverage but the following taking to bits of its claims and so the death of the scare gets little or nothing Jeff Condon Posted Mar 14 2013 at 7 15 AM Permalink There are all kinds of things wrong with this paper Besides the fact that calibration prior to averaging doesn t help variance loss issues how do you get a high frequency spike at the end of a reconstruction comprised entirely of very low frequency series Why weren t the authors concerned about that Richard Drake Posted Mar 14 2013 at 7 17 AM Permalink Why weren t the authors concerned about that It s a total mystery Steve McIntyre Posted Mar 14 2013 at 9 07 AM Permalink Jeff I agree that they should have been concerned about the closing spike If the spike had had gone the other way we know that the authors and reviewers would have been on it like a dog on a bone Some portion of the spike as I mentioned is an artifact of high negative series dropping out and no allowance being made for this in the Grid5x5 series But there s something else that s bizarre and could be almost anything In Briffa s original Tornetrask reconstruction he had a singleton spike in the closing value of his reconstruction which was regression using density from the year and the next year Instead of showing NA for the final reconstruction year he inadvertently used cycled the data using the value from the first year of core nearly 2000 years earlier The 1940 alkenone reconstruction is very close to the opening alkenone reconstruction value in the early Holocene Checking their code for inadvertent cycling is something that i d check if I get access to it Not saying that this is an explanation I have no idea right now Could be almost anything Could be something obvious that I m overlooking as well Richard Drake Posted Mar 14 2013 at 9 23 AM Permalink Hmm 2000 years ago is worse than we thought Jean S Posted Mar 14 2013 at 10 44 AM Permalink Re Steve McIntyre Mar 14 09 07 But there s something else that s bizarre and could be almost anything A bizarre thing is the way they perturbed SI l 81 82 most of their Mg Ca proxies as far as I understand their procedure it seems that they added Gaussian symmetric noise to both coefficients A and B in the exponential model SI l 47 That should have an effect of increasing the temperature value on average It does not explain the mystery but it may well explain why the Mg Ca stack has an even more profound blade than the Alkenone stack I have a gut feeling that the key to the mystery lies in the implementatioon of step 3 of their Monte Carlo procedure SI l 85 88 Craig Loehle Posted Mar 14 2013 at 2 11 PM Permalink Jean is absolutely right The Mg Ca eqn is exponential in the temperature calibration MgCaRatio B b exp A a T You don t assume a normal distribution for the exponent parameter you would need to test for this Yikes But also this means that since you actually measure the Mg Ca ratio your estimate of temperature is T Log MgCaRatio A B So in 2 places you are adding random noise to a parameter that you divide by in one case inside the Log expression Simulation shows that this will lead to inflated T temperature values on average when you do Monte Carlo sampling RomanM Posted Mar 14 2013 at 2 29 PM Permalink The problem goes deeper than just that The process does not take into account the random error term in the equation when it is generating the new random observations since all of these will be exactly on the perturbed regression curve This understates the variability of the actual observations which in turn would result in an underestimate of the error bounds on the reconstruction Did you notice the statement Ice core We conservatively assumed an uncertainty of 30 of the temperature anomaly 1σ 30 of an anomaly How much is 30 of 0 Skiphil Posted Mar 14 2013 at 2 28 PM Permalink Re Jean S Mar 14 10 44 I can t assess this except to say that when Jean S and Craig L agree something is important then that is an excellent sign that there is smoke and then something more good spot for auditors to keep probing UC Posted Mar 20 2013 at 3 38 PM Permalink RomanM would result in an underestimate of the error bounds on the reconstruction They have invented something new instead of using well known statistical calibration methods And the result is underestimation of error bounds Tonight on It s the Mind we examine the phenomenon of deja vu Jeff Norman Posted Mar 14 2013 at 9 21 AM Permalink Why weren t the reviewers Mervyn Posted Mar 14 2013 at 7 41 AM Permalink snip this type of piling on over editorializing is against blog policy JamesG Posted Mar 14 2013 at 8 49 AM Permalink I wonder if Mann was the main reviewer The infilling with Mann09 could well have been his idea It s not something that most folk would even consider Infilling an uptick at the end of a downturning dataset is an unscientific assumption led conclusion and in the hard sciences this would not get through the peer review process you d hope Steve there s no evidence that they infilled with Mann09 I for one don t believe that they did though I don t know what they did At this site please do not present things that are merely unfounded speculations as facts zctek Posted Mar 14 2013 at 9 34 AM Permalink Mervyn they probably had advice from Mr Mann Paul Matthews Posted Mar 14 2013 at 7 44 AM Permalink Just in case others are puzzled about exactly which stack Steve is plotting it s column AJ of the Temperature Stacks labelled standard Uk 37 Matlab code ds xlsread Marcott SM database S1 xlsx 3 plot ds 27 ds 34 o set gca XDir reverse Jeff Norman Posted Mar 14 2013 at 9 05 AM Permalink Steve Please accept my most sincere thanks for taking on this Sisyphusian task Imagine if you will some fifteen years ago after the MBH s first started making the rounds people all over the world sitting in the dark waiting for someone to start asking their questions Someone with enough vision stamina and a voice of authority to see through the hand waving to break through the stone walling There were years of sitting in the dark until you came along You have brought sunshine back to this particular part of the world Shine On You Crazy Diamond since everyone else seems to be doing it Though I m now thinking more along the lines of the stygian stables stygian darkness what had to be cleaned up thomaswfuller2 Posted Mar 14 2013 at 8 04 PM Permalink Sisyphean task Augean stables Swcharzneggerian taking out of trash Jeff Norman Posted Mar 15 2013 at 7 05 AM Permalink Thomaswfuller the 2nd LOL I find my memory is a less than satisfactory proxy for Greek mythology and other topics But a quick almost instantaneous review of the interweb lead me to believe my results were robust amac78 Posted Mar 14 2013 at 9 25 AM Permalink Side note as shown in A Scott s comment Mar 14 2013 at 5 05 AM the earth sciences convention for BP before present is to consider the present to be 1950 Wikipedia cite Espen Posted Mar 14 2013 at 9 48 AM Permalink Do you know the sources of these alkenone series Do they represent SSTs or inland seas bernie1815 Posted Mar 14 2013 at 10 45 AM Permalink They are also plotted in the SI David L Hagen Posted Mar 14 2013 at 10 12 AM Permalink Re Detecting Outliers vis Figure 1 Marcott 2013 Alkenone reconstruction Considering Marcott s 2013 reconstruction appears to cover the major portion of the warm part of the current interglacial period a simple model would be the positive portion near the peak of a sinusoid By eyeball the standard deviation from such a sinusoid may be of the order of 0 2 deg The last point of Marcott s Alkenone Stack appears to be about 1 4 deg above the previous one i e about six to seven standard deviations Are there statistically reliable methods to detect outliers and robustly differentiate them from a hockey stick blade in paleoclimatology The probability of six to seven standard deviations from a simple hypothesis seems to be a bit remote Latimer Alder Posted Mar 14 2013 at 11 01 AM Permalink From Shaun Marcott s homepage Part of the pleasure I receive from my research comes from working on new approaches to long standing problems in glacial geology and paleoclimatology the ability to split my time between the lab and field and working with a number of different people and friends who share similar professional interests but who approach the scientific questions much differently than I Not always it seems http proglacial com Proglacial Home html David L Hagen Posted Mar 14 2013 at 11 15 AM Permalink David Middleton shows the consequence of 140 year resolution filtering vs 1 or 21 year resolution This Alkanone series does not appear to have the resolution to even detect such transitions emphasizing how strong an outlier is the last point Furthermore Don Easterbrook observes The highest rates occurred at the transition from the Ice Age to Holocene when warming rates in Greenland were 20 to 24 F per century and the huge continental ice sheets that covered large areas of North America and Eur Asia melted dramatically As shown in Figure 4B the rate for the past century 0 7 C is puny indeed compared to late Ice Age early Holocene rates Marcott et al s conclusion A heat spike like this has never happened before at least not in the last 11 300 years is clearly contrary to measured real time data and thus fails the Feynman test i e their conclusion is wrong Such 1 C decade rates should be detectable with current measurement Harris Posted Mar 14 2013 at 11 29 AM Permalink Hockey stick This new one looks more like an ice pick Rud Istvan Posted Mar 14 2013 at 11 33 AM Permalink It is worth noticing curious Figure 1H which corresponds to 1B the hockey stick that agrees with Mann 2008 discussed over

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  • “More and more concerned about our statement” « Climate Audit
    the processes that drive the sedimentary record of the interglacial SST evolution may be unexpectedly complex and our understanding is only fragmentary Although the alkenone derived SST trends previously identified are robust they are not reproduced by the Mg Ca derived SST records On the low latitude warming indicated in the alkenone data and relied upon by IPCC they observe Why the global and persistent warming trend is recorded in almost all of the low latitude alkenone records as such a strong Holocene SST feature Figs 1 and 3 a c is more puzzling and can only be explained if alkenone derived SST records are assumed to reflect the boreal winter season since it coincides with an insolation increase in the tropics Therefore another factor may have had an impact at low latitudes e g nutrient availability instead of light since light is not a limiting factor for primary productivity at low latitudes Possible is that in the permanently stratified tropical ocean where light is no limited low nutrient surface waters are influenced seasonally by upwelling that acts synchronously to increase the surface water nutrient content favouring primary productivity and to decrease SST potentially making coccolithophorids susceptible to blooms when SSTs are below the mean annual average A feature that is in agreement with recent satellite observations for an inverse relationship at low latitudes between net primary productivity and temperature the link between these processes being the upper ocean stratification Behrenfeld et al 2006 Like this Like Loading Related This entry was written by Steve McIntyre posted on Apr 8 2010 at 6 56 PM filed under climategate Holocene Optimum and tagged alkenone holocene optimum leduc lorenz overpeck upwelling Bookmark the permalink Follow any comments here with the RSS feed for this post Both comments and trackbacks are currently closed Dealing a Mortal Blow to the MWP Overpeck s Hammer 42 Comments timetochooseagain Posted Apr 8 2010 at 7 36 PM Permalink In Climate Of Extremes Michaels and Balling discuss figure 6 9 and an oddity with regard to how it was put together It underwent several interesting revisions Look at slide 40 here http www washingtonpolicy org Centers environment PDF Pat Michaels PowerPoint pdf That s what it looked like in the First Order Draft The very next slide is the final version shown above in this post Although Michaels focused on the changes in how MacDonald 2000 on Siberia was cited the graphic VASTLY understates what he found notice how the tropical cool spot changes first it s tropical atlantic and east pacific and in the final it somehow becomes the North Indian and the entire tropical pacific The period also gets longer The lengthening of the tropical cool period versus the shortening of the Siberian warmth is a stark contrast AFAIK the references the IPCC gave were the same for all versions of the figure timetochooseagain Posted Apr 8 2010 at 8 30 PM Permalink Correction for some reason the figure shown above doesn t seem to match Michaels final version quite right Steve is that the final version of the figure I looks more like the Second Order Draft figure in Michaels book PaulM Posted Apr 9 2010 at 3 46 AM Permalink Re timetochooseagain Apr 8 20 30 You are right Steve s picture is not the final version of IPCC fig 6 9 The final version is similar but has a couple more red patches in the NH Nordic seas North Eurasia Steve has used the version from the 2nd order draft March 2006 probably because this is the version they were discussing in these emails The Michaels presentation uses the FOD and the final version Steve I ll annotate the caption accordingly ML Posted Apr 8 2010 at 7 48 PM Permalink There is a link to woodoo science as called by IPCC Guru http moef nic in downloads public information MoEF 20Discussion 20Paper 20 him pdf Long but you can start from page 48 Chapter 8 Global Warming and the Glacier Retreat A Review steve off topic Nothing to do with the Early Holocene artwest Posted Apr 8 2010 at 8 36 PM Permalink Hate to nit pick but I assume you d prefer to know about apparent typos Steve The above sentence is relied upon by Overpeck et al rely on in arguing against a global Holocene Optimum Nor did Overpeck and associates didn t report that glaciers justbeau Posted Apr 8 2010 at 9 34 PM Permalink The title is more concerned while the email is more concern justbeau Posted Apr 8 2010 at 9 43 PM Permalink Splendid essay by McIntyre The East Anglia emails provide a wonderful contemporaneous record by shedding light on misinterpretations as they happenned Willis Eschenbach Posted Apr 8 2010 at 10 18 PM Permalink Y know every time I read one of these forays into the fetid depths of the CRU emails I come away more amazed at the brazen quality of how they describe what they are doing They are not looking for a scientific effort they are looking for a dismissive effort They don t want to find out the truth about the MWP they are interested in dealing a mortal blow to the MWP I know I shouldn t be surprised but I was born yesterday I m still not used to this kind of science Back to the point The Bermuda Station S records Keigwin 1996 subscription only overview here show very clear cooling over the period of the late Holocene They show a cooling of more than 2 C in the Bermuda 32 N SST So if they want to claim the Early Holocene was cool I d have to ask Compared to what To the present To the later Holocene Also I truly don t understand their claim in Fig 6 9 above that the Western Tropical Pacific was only warmer more than a half degree than the present from about 11 000 to 9 000 years ago Their reference for this is Stott 2004 but Stott shows three drill cores and only one of the three shows that pattern The other two show the warm period extending much closer to the present And all three show a pattern of a general decrease in SST from around 8 10 000 years ago One of the three MD81 shows SSTs a full degree warmer in the last thousand years get out the mallet we have to smash that high temperature down Me I suspect that because Keigwin clearly shows both the Little Ice Age and the MWP it was unable to survive the mortal blow to the MWP Steve McIntyre Posted Apr 8 2010 at 11 26 PM Permalink Re Willis Eschenbach Apr 8 22 18 Willis your observation that the IPCC characterization of Stott et al 2004 is entirely correct IPCC reviewer Michel Cricufix made the same point in First Draft Comments as follows 6 1036 A 21 57 22 1 east Pacific warming This statement is not backed by the quoted references Rimbu et al only consider the Atlantic while Stott et al Nature document a this is the title decline of surface temperature in the western Pacific ocean in the Holocene IPCC merely replied New Lorentz et al GRL paper Willis Eschenbach Posted Apr 9 2010 at 12 03 AM Permalink That s good to know Steve because my interpretation of the Stott paper s data was so far afield from the IPCC interpretation that I was afraid that I was missing something obvious Jeff Id Posted Apr 8 2010 at 10 31 PM Permalink Steve I thought about sending this as an email but then reconsidered with climategate in mind I said it before you are the single non government person familiar enough with the various proxies and methods to put the whole mess into context It cannot be done by someone as interested as myself b c there is too much foundation work to learn Each email to my eyes even those having so many suggestive over conclusions requires many hours of study People don t realize just how much work you have into this The MWP is not dead Nic sent me to a stack of papers tonight and despite my new dad exhaustion I m still reading Every reader here should understand that AGW has got to kill the MWP if they don t then today is not that exceptional It s a very big pressure on the political class of the science It s enough of a pressure that some scientists aren t clean It doesn t mean that the scientists in question aren t right it does mean that many efforts of dotting i s and t s aren t being completed in a fashion which demonstrates their conclusions We the hapless are left with a big pile of Swiss cheese logic and a political consensus result Steve McIntyre Posted Apr 8 2010 at 11 21 PM Permalink I ve edited this post to include a discussion of Lorenz et al 2006 Figure 4 As noted in the post I am presently unable to identify the non Figure 3 sites since the dataset is password protected I anticipate adding back some commentary if and when I m able to identify the sites richard telford Posted Apr 9 2010 at 2 27 AM Permalink The data might be protected at http www pangaea de Projects GHOST but the reference list isn t Open ocean sedimentation rates are typically rather low insufficient for Holocene scale reconstructions Upwelling areas have high biological productivity so high sedimentation rates sometimes even with anoxia reducing bioturbation Great places for a high resolution record but not necessarily representative of the open ocean Steve An article being relied upon by IPCC for a result should not have password protected data End of story Climate scientists should be the ones who need to be most offended by this not me Dave McK Posted Apr 9 2010 at 6 30 AM Permalink You do excellent work Steve Real work There s not a pundit I wouldn t be happy to chase out of a dark alley with a mop but I m glad I ll never be on the wrong side of a McIntyre I d rather climb into a dumpster full of lawyers Nobody is tty Posted Apr 9 2010 at 6 43 AM Permalink Most of the data from figure 4 seems to be summarized and referenced in this paper Leduc G Schneider R Kim J H Lohmann G 2010 Holocene and Eemian sea surface temperature trends as revealed by alkenone and Mg Ca paleothermometry Quaternary Science Reviews 29 7 8 989 1004 available at http epic awi de Publications Led2010a pdf Interestingly it indicates that Alkenone and Mg Ca proxies give opposite temporal trends for tropical waters The paper suggests that this is due to the proxies sampling different seasons I don t find this wholly convincing since alkenone also indicates rising tropical SST temperatures during the previous interglacial while all other proxies palynology fauna oxygen isotopes speleothems etc I ve ever heard of agree that temperatures were highest early in the interglacial and then declined Jason Lewis Posted Apr 9 2010 at 7 54 AM Permalink It looks like a classic case of confirmation bias Let s be critical of information that conflicts with our preconceived beliefs and accepting of what confirms them Steve I hope that you pay your staff well for for all the hard work and overtime they do to compile and analyze all of this data Craig Loehle Posted Apr 9 2010 at 9 25 AM Permalink Confirmation bias is why peer review is required everyone is susceptible to it Imagine if authors could over rule ignore all reviewer comments as IPCC chapter authors do Tom C Posted Apr 9 2010 at 10 15 PM Permalink Actually it s not a classic case of confirmation bias A classic case would be subtle and hard to discern This is blatant and egregious More like pathological obsessive gang like confirmation bias PaulM Posted Apr 9 2010 at 11 36 AM Permalink The Porter Review paper that Olgo Solomina refers to that the IPCC did not cite is Onset of Neoglaciation in the Southern Hemisphere JOURNAL OF QUATERNARY SCIENCE 2000 15 4 395 408 It is mainly about the onset of a cool period neoglaciation around 5000 years BP as determined by advancing glaciers The statement We do not cite Porter s paper for the reason that we actually do not know how to explain this is alarming If scientists adopted this attitude scientific progress would be minimal Clearly she felt awkward about it but must have been persuaded by the evidence free statements of her co authors that the glacier increase was due to increased precipitation rather than falling temperature Here is one interesting sentence from Porter s paper relevant to the alleged cool tropics Thouret et al 1996 inferred that the timberline in the Colombian Andes was 300 500 m higher than now between ca 7400 and 3600 yr ago implying air temperatures 1 2 C warmer than now and a higher snowline No prizes for guessing whether Thouret et al was cited by the IPCC tty Posted Apr 9 2010 at 4 43 PM Permalink Unless the lapse rate is somehow much lower in Colombia than elsewhere a 300 500 m higher treeline implies approximately 2 0 3 5 degrees centigrade warming Duster Posted Apr 9 2010 at 6 26 PM Permalink Those two observations taken together are quite interesting They imply 1 advancing glaciers 5 000 years ago 2 DURING a period 7 400 to 3 600 years when the Colombian Andes timber line climbed between about 1 000 and 1 6000 feet Conjointly that suggests that either glaciers advanced during a warm period or that timberlines were NOT responding to temperature as a limiting factor tty Posted Apr 10 2010 at 4 31 AM Permalink The neoglaciation was in the southern Andes and southern New Zealand i e southern temperate zone The Colombian Andes are in the northern Tropics climate changes need not be synchronous I would say that in the Northern Andes temperature is probably the limiting factor except for a few dry valleys on the eastern side of the main range UK John Posted Apr 9 2010 at 2 19 PM Permalink An example of Vodoo science Ryan Maue Posted Apr 9 2010 at 3 10 PM Permalink Try this Steve http ghost pangaea de Data Steve thanks strange http ghost pangaea de data html has a password protection tty Posted Apr 9 2010 at 4 54 PM Permalink Oh dear these are genuine computer wizards They have password protection if you follow the regular entry in but forgot to protect the actual data subdirectory Ryan N Maue Posted Apr 9 2010 at 7 04 PM Permalink Actually they have dutifully archived the data in a Scientific Commons type website that directly links to the active directories These folks should be applauded for archiving the data Also Google helped immensely http en scientificcommons org 9610544 oneuniverse Posted Apr 10 2010 at 7 55 AM Permalink Re Ryan Maue Apr 9 15 10 The Excel files on the Data page of the GHOST project s home site http ghost pangaea de are password protected for some reason The data files are accessible if searched for via http www pangaea de Brooks Hurd Posted Apr 9 2010 at 4 03 PM Permalink Steve Once again great work Willis put it very well above They don t want to find out the truth I really do not understand how people can call themselves scientists and cherry pick some data and completely ignore other data to prove their pre conceived notions justbeau Posted Apr 9 2010 at 8 16 PM Permalink Peck needs to save the Earth He is a confounding director for the Institute for the Environment a big man on campus A Nobel laureate thanks to epic service to the IPCC Peck has volunteered to save the Earth against the terrible threat that has been identified by Al and Captain Jim It would take a lot of backbone for Peck to say wait a minute there is no clear evidence of warming Peck does what one would reasonably expect Don t worry Olga assures Peck your thoughtful concerns and good science will be accommodated How is Dr Olga going to find out about Peck s double cross from the Kamchatka OldUnixHead Posted Apr 10 2010 at 3 13 PM Permalink justbeau on Apr 9 2010 at 8 16 PM confounding director Freudian justbeau Posted Apr 10 2010 at 3 34 PM Permalink While sometimes I typo to err is human and all that this particular typo was deliberate 1DandyTroll Posted Apr 9 2010 at 6 09 PM Permalink So essentially you have now shoved two true gigantic torpedoes up Overpecks behind which of course need proper time to be felt Barclay E MacDonald Posted Apr 9 2010 at 8 40 PM Permalink In the LeDuc et al quote above it states Although the alkenone derived SST trends previously identified are robust they are not reproduced by the Mg Ca derived SST records I m not sure what is meant by robust As used here it appears inherently contradictory Or maybe robust just means something like thorough or complete tty Posted Apr 10 2010 at 4 35 AM Permalink I should think that in this context it means that the data are reproducible and that the trends are consistent and statistically significant It is the interpretation that is shaky Steve McIntyre Posted Apr 9 2010 at 9 35 PM Permalink This is a little utility script to read the alkenone data library xlsReadWrite loc http ghost pangaea de Data Holocene AlkenoneSST Holocene PANGAEA2004 xls download file loc temp xls mode wb test read xls temp xls sheet 2 colClasses rep c

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  • Holocene Optimum « Climate Audit
    By Steve McIntyre Tagged driftwood ellesmere Comments 57 Lorenz et al 2006 Tropical Cooling Jan 2 2007 2 14 PM Despite the protestations of the Team it seems to be a consensus of other paleoclimatologists that the Holocene Optimum was warmer at high southern latitudes For now I ll take this as read although it s well worth canvassing the literature Some citations are at ukweatherworld The next line of Team attack on the Holocene Optimum is By Steve McIntyre Also posted in Ocean sediment Tagged 56KA alkenone lorenz rimbu upwelling Comments 26 Holocene Optimum Jan 1 2007 2 33 PM Since Hansen s article in September we re starting to hear the phrase warmest in 12000 years google warmest 12000 years and you ll see recent coverage This immediately raises the question of the Holocene Optimum a period from about 8000 to 5200 BP in which there is undisputed evidence of significant NH warmth The Team has By Steve McIntyre Comments 42 Tip Jar The Tip Jar is working again via a temporary location Pages About Blog Rules and Road Map CA Assistant CA blog setup Contact Steve Mc Econometric References FAQ 2005 Gridded Data High Resolution Ocean Sediments Hockey Stick Studies Proxy Data Station Data Statistics and R Subscribe to CA Tip Jar Categories Categories Select Category AIT Archiving Nature Science climategate cg2 Data Disclosure and Diligence Peer Review FOIA General Holocene Optimum Hurricane Inquiries Muir Russell IPCC ar5 MBH98 Replication Source Code Spot the Hockey Stick Modeling Hansen Santer UK Met Office Multiproxy Studies Briffa Crowley D Arrigo 2006 Esper et al 2002 Hansen Hegerl 2006 Jones Mann 2003 Jones et al 1998 Juckes et al 2006 Kaufman 2009 Loehle 2007 Loehle 2008 Mann et al 2007 Mann et al 2008 Mann et al 2009 Marcott 2013 Moberg 2005 pages2k Trouet 2009 Wahl and Ammann News and Commentary MM Proxies Almagre Antarctica bristlecones Divergence Geological Ice core Jacoby Mann PC1 Medieval Noamer Treeline Ocean sediment Post 1980 Proxies Solar Speleothem Thompson Yamal and Urals Reports Barton Committee NAS Panel Satellite and gridcell Scripts Sea Ice Sea Level Rise Statistics Multivariate RegEM Spurious Steig at al 2009 Surface Record CRU GISTEMP GISTEMP Replication Jones et al 1990 SST Steig at al 2009 UHI TGGWS Uncategorized Unthreaded Articles CCSP Workshop Nov05 McIntyre McKitrick 2003 MM05 GRL MM05 EE NAS Panel Reply to Huybers Reply to von Storch Blogroll Accuweather Blogs Andrew Revkin Anthony Watts Bishop Hill Bob Tisdale Dan Hughes David Stockwell Icecap Idsos James Annan Jeff Id Josh Halpern Judith Curry Keith Kloor Klimazweibel Lubos Motl Lucia s Blackboard Matt Briggs NASA GISS Nature Blogs RealClimate Roger Pielke Jr Roger Pielke Sr Roman M Science of Doom Tamino Warwick Hughes Watts Up With That William Connolley WordPress com World Climate Report Favorite posts Bring the Proxies up to date Due Diligence FAQ 2005 McKitrick What is the Hockey Stick debate about Overview Responses to MBH Some thoughts on Disclosure Wegman and North Reports for Newbies Links Acronyms Latex

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  • 56KA « Climate Audit
    al 2008 Mann et al 2009 Marcott 2013 Moberg 2005 pages2k Trouet 2009 Wahl and Ammann News and Commentary MM Proxies Almagre Antarctica bristlecones Divergence Geological Ice core Jacoby Mann PC1 Medieval Noamer Treeline Ocean sediment Post 1980 Proxies Solar Speleothem Thompson Yamal and Urals Reports Barton Committee NAS Panel Satellite and gridcell Scripts Sea Ice Sea Level Rise Statistics Multivariate RegEM Spurious Steig at al 2009 Surface Record CRU GISTEMP GISTEMP Replication Jones et al 1990 SST Steig at al 2009 UHI TGGWS Uncategorized Unthreaded Articles CCSP Workshop Nov05 McIntyre McKitrick 2003 MM05 GRL MM05 EE NAS Panel Reply to Huybers Reply to von Storch Blogroll Accuweather Blogs Andrew Revkin Anthony Watts Bishop Hill Bob Tisdale Dan Hughes David Stockwell Icecap Idsos James Annan Jeff Id Josh Halpern Judith Curry Keith Kloor Klimazweibel Lubos Motl Lucia s Blackboard Matt Briggs NASA GISS Nature Blogs RealClimate Roger Pielke Jr Roger Pielke Sr Roman M Science of Doom Tamino Warwick Hughes Watts Up With That William Connolley WordPress com World Climate Report Favorite posts Bring the Proxies up to date Due Diligence FAQ 2005 McKitrick What is the Hockey Stick debate about Overview Responses to MBH Some thoughts on Disclosure Wegman and North Reports for Newbies Links Acronyms Latex Symbols MBH 98 Steve s Public Data Archive WDCP Wegman Reply to Stupak Wegman Report Weblogs and resources Ross McKitrick Surface Stations Archives Archives Select Month February 2016 January 2016 December 2015 September 2015 August 2015 July 2015 June 2015 April 2015 March 2015 February 2015 January 2015 December 2014 November 2014 October 2014 September 2014 August 2014 July 2014 June 2014 May 2014 April 2014 March 2014 February 2014 January 2014 December 2013 November 2013 October 2013 September 2013 August 2013 July 2013 June 2013 May 2013 April 2013 March 2013 January 2013 December 2012 November 2012 October 2012 September 2012 August 2012 July 2012 June 2012 May 2012 April 2012 March 2012 February 2012 January 2012 December 2011 November 2011 October 2011 September 2011 August 2011 July 2011 June 2011 May 2011 April 2011 March 2011 February 2011 January 2011 December 2010 November 2010 October 2010 September 2010 August 2010 July 2010 June 2010 May 2010 April 2010 March 2010 February 2010 January 2010 December 2009 November 2009 October 2009 September 2009 August 2009 July 2009 June 2009 May 2009 April 2009 March 2009 February 2009 January 2009 December 2008 November 2008 October 2008 September 2008 August 2008 July 2008 June 2008 May 2008 April 2008 March 2008 February 2008 January 2008 December 2007 November 2007 October 2007 September 2007 August 2007 July 2007 June 2007 May 2007 April 2007 March 2007 February 2007 January 2007 December 2006 November 2006 October 2006 September 2006 August 2006 July 2006 June 2006 May 2006 April 2006 March 2006 February 2006 January 2006 December 2005 November 2005 October 2005 September 2005 August 2005 July 2005 June 2005 May 2005 April 2005 March 2005 February 2005 January 2005 December 2004 October 2004 January 2000

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