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  • lorenz « Climate Audit
    and R Subscribe to CA Tip Jar Categories Categories Select Category AIT Archiving Nature Science climategate cg2 Data Disclosure and Diligence Peer Review FOIA General Holocene Optimum Hurricane Inquiries Muir Russell IPCC ar5 MBH98 Replication Source Code Spot the Hockey Stick Modeling Hansen Santer UK Met Office Multiproxy Studies Briffa Crowley D Arrigo 2006 Esper et al 2002 Hansen Hegerl 2006 Jones Mann 2003 Jones et al 1998 Juckes et al 2006 Kaufman 2009 Loehle 2007 Loehle 2008 Mann et al 2007 Mann et al 2008 Mann et al 2009 Marcott 2013 Moberg 2005 pages2k Trouet 2009 Wahl and Ammann News and Commentary MM Proxies Almagre Antarctica bristlecones Divergence Geological Ice core Jacoby Mann PC1 Medieval Noamer Treeline Ocean sediment Post 1980 Proxies Solar Speleothem Thompson Yamal and Urals Reports Barton Committee NAS Panel Satellite and gridcell Scripts Sea Ice Sea Level Rise Statistics Multivariate RegEM Spurious Steig at al 2009 Surface Record CRU GISTEMP GISTEMP Replication Jones et al 1990 SST Steig at al 2009 UHI TGGWS Uncategorized Unthreaded Articles CCSP Workshop Nov05 McIntyre McKitrick 2003 MM05 GRL MM05 EE NAS Panel Reply to Huybers Reply to von Storch Blogroll Accuweather Blogs Andrew Revkin Anthony Watts Bishop Hill Bob Tisdale Dan Hughes David Stockwell Icecap Idsos James Annan Jeff Id Josh Halpern Judith Curry Keith Kloor Klimazweibel Lubos Motl Lucia s Blackboard Matt Briggs NASA GISS Nature Blogs RealClimate Roger Pielke Jr Roger Pielke Sr Roman M Science of Doom Tamino Warwick Hughes Watts Up With That William Connolley WordPress com World Climate Report Favorite posts Bring the Proxies up to date Due Diligence FAQ 2005 McKitrick What is the Hockey Stick debate about Overview Responses to MBH Some thoughts on Disclosure Wegman and North Reports for Newbies Links Acronyms Latex Symbols MBH 98 Steve s Public Data Archive WDCP Wegman Reply to Stupak Wegman Report Weblogs and resources Ross McKitrick Surface Stations Archives Archives Select Month February 2016 January 2016 December 2015 September 2015 August 2015 July 2015 June 2015 April 2015 March 2015 February 2015 January 2015 December 2014 November 2014 October 2014 September 2014 August 2014 July 2014 June 2014 May 2014 April 2014 March 2014 February 2014 January 2014 December 2013 November 2013 October 2013 September 2013 August 2013 July 2013 June 2013 May 2013 April 2013 March 2013 January 2013 December 2012 November 2012 October 2012 September 2012 August 2012 July 2012 June 2012 May 2012 April 2012 March 2012 February 2012 January 2012 December 2011 November 2011 October 2011 September 2011 August 2011 July 2011 June 2011 May 2011 April 2011 March 2011 February 2011 January 2011 December 2010 November 2010 October 2010 September 2010 August 2010 July 2010 June 2010 May 2010 April 2010 March 2010 February 2010 January 2010 December 2009 November 2009 October 2009 September 2009 August 2009 July 2009 June 2009 May 2009 April 2009 March 2009 February 2009 January 2009 December 2008 November 2008 October 2008 September 2008 August 2008 July 2008 June 2008 May 2008 April 2008

    Original URL path: http://climateaudit.org/tag/lorenz/ (2016-02-09)
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  • rimbu « Climate Audit
    Santer UK Met Office Multiproxy Studies Briffa Crowley D Arrigo 2006 Esper et al 2002 Hansen Hegerl 2006 Jones Mann 2003 Jones et al 1998 Juckes et al 2006 Kaufman 2009 Loehle 2007 Loehle 2008 Mann et al 2007 Mann et al 2008 Mann et al 2009 Marcott 2013 Moberg 2005 pages2k Trouet 2009 Wahl and Ammann News and Commentary MM Proxies Almagre Antarctica bristlecones Divergence Geological Ice core Jacoby Mann PC1 Medieval Noamer Treeline Ocean sediment Post 1980 Proxies Solar Speleothem Thompson Yamal and Urals Reports Barton Committee NAS Panel Satellite and gridcell Scripts Sea Ice Sea Level Rise Statistics Multivariate RegEM Spurious Steig at al 2009 Surface Record CRU GISTEMP GISTEMP Replication Jones et al 1990 SST Steig at al 2009 UHI TGGWS Uncategorized Unthreaded Articles CCSP Workshop Nov05 McIntyre McKitrick 2003 MM05 GRL MM05 EE NAS Panel Reply to Huybers Reply to von Storch Blogroll Accuweather Blogs Andrew Revkin Anthony Watts Bishop Hill Bob Tisdale Dan Hughes David Stockwell Icecap Idsos James Annan Jeff Id Josh Halpern Judith Curry Keith Kloor Klimazweibel Lubos Motl Lucia s Blackboard Matt Briggs NASA GISS Nature Blogs RealClimate Roger Pielke Jr Roger Pielke Sr Roman M Science of Doom Tamino Warwick Hughes Watts Up With That William Connolley WordPress com World Climate Report Favorite posts Bring the Proxies up to date Due Diligence FAQ 2005 McKitrick What is the Hockey Stick debate about Overview Responses to MBH Some thoughts on Disclosure Wegman and North Reports for Newbies Links Acronyms Latex Symbols MBH 98 Steve s Public Data Archive WDCP Wegman Reply to Stupak Wegman Report Weblogs and resources Ross McKitrick Surface Stations Archives Archives Select Month February 2016 January 2016 December 2015 September 2015 August 2015 July 2015 June 2015 April 2015 March 2015 February 2015 January 2015 December 2014 November 2014 October 2014 September 2014 August 2014 July 2014 June 2014 May 2014 April 2014 March 2014 February 2014 January 2014 December 2013 November 2013 October 2013 September 2013 August 2013 July 2013 June 2013 May 2013 April 2013 March 2013 January 2013 December 2012 November 2012 October 2012 September 2012 August 2012 July 2012 June 2012 May 2012 April 2012 March 2012 February 2012 January 2012 December 2011 November 2011 October 2011 September 2011 August 2011 July 2011 June 2011 May 2011 April 2011 March 2011 February 2011 January 2011 December 2010 November 2010 October 2010 September 2010 August 2010 July 2010 June 2010 May 2010 April 2010 March 2010 February 2010 January 2010 December 2009 November 2009 October 2009 September 2009 August 2009 July 2009 June 2009 May 2009 April 2009 March 2009 February 2009 January 2009 December 2008 November 2008 October 2008 September 2008 August 2008 July 2008 June 2008 May 2008 April 2008 March 2008 February 2008 January 2008 December 2007 November 2007 October 2007 September 2007 August 2007 July 2007 June 2007 May 2007 April 2007 March 2007 February 2007 January 2007 December 2006 November 2006 October 2006 September 2006 August 2006 July 2006 June

    Original URL path: http://climateaudit.org/tag/rimbu/ (2016-02-09)
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  • upwelling « Climate Audit
    Modeling Hansen Santer UK Met Office Multiproxy Studies Briffa Crowley D Arrigo 2006 Esper et al 2002 Hansen Hegerl 2006 Jones Mann 2003 Jones et al 1998 Juckes et al 2006 Kaufman 2009 Loehle 2007 Loehle 2008 Mann et al 2007 Mann et al 2008 Mann et al 2009 Marcott 2013 Moberg 2005 pages2k Trouet 2009 Wahl and Ammann News and Commentary MM Proxies Almagre Antarctica bristlecones Divergence Geological Ice core Jacoby Mann PC1 Medieval Noamer Treeline Ocean sediment Post 1980 Proxies Solar Speleothem Thompson Yamal and Urals Reports Barton Committee NAS Panel Satellite and gridcell Scripts Sea Ice Sea Level Rise Statistics Multivariate RegEM Spurious Steig at al 2009 Surface Record CRU GISTEMP GISTEMP Replication Jones et al 1990 SST Steig at al 2009 UHI TGGWS Uncategorized Unthreaded Articles CCSP Workshop Nov05 McIntyre McKitrick 2003 MM05 GRL MM05 EE NAS Panel Reply to Huybers Reply to von Storch Blogroll Accuweather Blogs Andrew Revkin Anthony Watts Bishop Hill Bob Tisdale Dan Hughes David Stockwell Icecap Idsos James Annan Jeff Id Josh Halpern Judith Curry Keith Kloor Klimazweibel Lubos Motl Lucia s Blackboard Matt Briggs NASA GISS Nature Blogs RealClimate Roger Pielke Jr Roger Pielke Sr Roman M Science of Doom Tamino Warwick Hughes Watts Up With That William Connolley WordPress com World Climate Report Favorite posts Bring the Proxies up to date Due Diligence FAQ 2005 McKitrick What is the Hockey Stick debate about Overview Responses to MBH Some thoughts on Disclosure Wegman and North Reports for Newbies Links Acronyms Latex Symbols MBH 98 Steve s Public Data Archive WDCP Wegman Reply to Stupak Wegman Report Weblogs and resources Ross McKitrick Surface Stations Archives Archives Select Month February 2016 January 2016 December 2015 September 2015 August 2015 July 2015 June 2015 April 2015 March 2015 February 2015 January 2015 December 2014 November 2014 October 2014 September 2014 August 2014 July 2014 June 2014 May 2014 April 2014 March 2014 February 2014 January 2014 December 2013 November 2013 October 2013 September 2013 August 2013 July 2013 June 2013 May 2013 April 2013 March 2013 January 2013 December 2012 November 2012 October 2012 September 2012 August 2012 July 2012 June 2012 May 2012 April 2012 March 2012 February 2012 January 2012 December 2011 November 2011 October 2011 September 2011 August 2011 July 2011 June 2011 May 2011 April 2011 March 2011 February 2011 January 2011 December 2010 November 2010 October 2010 September 2010 August 2010 July 2010 June 2010 May 2010 April 2010 March 2010 February 2010 January 2010 December 2009 November 2009 October 2009 September 2009 August 2009 July 2009 June 2009 May 2009 April 2009 March 2009 February 2009 January 2009 December 2008 November 2008 October 2008 September 2008 August 2008 July 2008 June 2008 May 2008 April 2008 March 2008 February 2008 January 2008 December 2007 November 2007 October 2007 September 2007 August 2007 July 2007 June 2007 May 2007 April 2007 March 2007 February 2007 January 2007 December 2006 November 2006 October 2006 September 2006 August 2006 July

    Original URL path: http://climateaudit.org/tag/upwelling/ (2016-02-09)
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  • My Prediction for dO18 at Bona Churchill « Climate Audit
    epica Posted Sep 5 2006 at 5 46 AM Permalink 4 You can do whatever you want with the ice as long you dont melt it the water isotopes are robust Therefore one uses typically outer exposed ice to measure the isotope signal and reserves the inner part foe aerosols and gases MrPete Posted Sep 5 2006 at 5 48 AM Permalink Re 1 be careful about presuming the conclusion In fact that may be one of the major Big Idea lessons of Steve M s work If warming can produce both depletion and enrichment in a certain time space context then what just happened to dO18 as a direct temperacture proxy in that context Every time I return here I m amused and horrified by the latest careful demonstration of how easily people who are desperate to find guidance in the numbers will find what they re looking for MrPete Posted Sep 5 2006 at 6 13 AM Permalink Here is an interesting example of isotopes used for local analysis with much background and illustration of various factors that complexify the situation Steve McIntyre Posted Sep 5 2006 at 6 15 AM Permalink 1 epica absolutely not That s not what I said at all There s a natural tendency to want to get good results out faster than bad results In mining promotions promoters always find a way to rush good results out and delay bad results There s enough delay in the Bona Churchill results that give me ground to believe that they will be bad results Let s see if I m right I ve made an on the record prediction I certainly don t expect them to be totally withheld I expect them to be published after IPCC 4AR They have already missed the cut off date for inclusion I do believe that if they had shown anomalous 20th century values Thompson would have found a way to get them out in time to meet IPCC 4AR cut off dates I ve been on record here for some time about the fact that Hughes has not published a peep about his Sheep Mountain update in 2002 If these ring widths were off the chart I feel quite confident that we d have heard about it Again I predict the Sheep Mountain bristlecone ring widths did not go off the charts in the 1990s I would certainly not interpret a change to more depleted dO18 values at Bona Churchill in the 20th century as evidence against global warming I m quite convinced that 20th century temperatures are warmer than 19th century temperatures Don t set up straw men However such results from Bona Churchill would be inconvenient for an argument that less depleted dO18 values in the Himalayas are convincing EVIDENCE for an anomalous 20th century Steve McIntyre Posted Sep 5 2006 at 6 19 AM Permalink Let s not lose sight here of the interesting information in the paper by Fisher et al about regime changes epica Posted Sep 5 2006 at 6 35 AM Permalink Different parts and cores of Mount Logan were published before I think by three different groups working there Interpretation of nearly everything there seems extraordinarily difficult Neverless several publications made it to Science Nature and many others were published in high level journals I cant see anything why a particular trend on Mount Logan or on Bona Churchill is good and another is bad Certainly there is no problem to get these results out and published Thompson is working now with two drilling teams to finish as he puts it drilling before the last glaciers disappeared I doubt that he is much now more than 4 months per year at home I cant see anything particular in a 2003 drilling not being published yet The proposed regime shift was suggested in many papers on Logan Might be or the mountain is just a mess bender Posted Sep 5 2006 at 7 29 AM Permalink epica what do you make of the Fisher et al article Or do you think these results are meaningless given the mountain is a mess Dave Dardinger Posted Sep 5 2006 at 8 21 AM Permalink I think that the important thing from a warmer perspective about a changing wind pattern is that it removes the see how Alaska is melting must be global warming from the proof of to the compatable with category I e this is a normal sort of situation change and while it may be a natural reaction of the global climate to an overall warming trend it s not proof of it Steve McIntyre Posted Sep 5 2006 at 9 54 AM Permalink epica as I said in my post I m sure that there are many really excellent reasons why the Bona Churchill results have not been published to date My prediction stands the Bona Churchill dO18 series will not have elevated 20th century levels Do you agree with that prediction Steve McIntyre Posted Sep 5 2006 at 10 01 AM Permalink A thought experiment if the results at PRCol had been the opposite an upward step in dO18 levels would they have been reported differently perhaps as evidence of global warming and not as changing wind patterns Why are smaller changes at Dunde evidence of global warming rather than changing wind patterns Paul Dennis Posted Sep 5 2006 at 10 26 AM Permalink Guys I m back from my holiday and now about to go off for two weeks fieldwork in the west coast of Ireland It s a hard life Steve I m sorry I ll miss your trip to Europe I leave on the 9th and don t get back till the 23rd September Good luck at the conference and meetings I ve not read the Fisher paper yet just looked at the figure you ve posted My interpretation of the data as presented is that ca the mid 19th century there was a sudden change in the dominant source area for the precipitation The best evidence for this is the deuterium excess plot Deuterium excess is delta D 8 x delta 18 O The dominant control on the deuterium excess is the relative humidity in the source region where water is evaporating off the ocean Temperature and other local conditions at the site of precipitation have little effect on the deuterium excess The exception to this is where there is extensive evaporation of rain and surface water in arid regions However these can be identified by a low gradient 4 5 on a plot of deuterium versus 18 O My guess this isn t a problem for these samples Higher values are associated with kinetic isotope effects as a result of evaporation into an atmosphere of low relative humidity The shift to higher values ca 1840 would indicate a change in the evaporation conditions i e a change in the source region or a change in humidity of the source region The drop in delta 18 O doesn t necessarily indicate a cooling It is an indicator of the temperature difference between the source region and the area where precipitation is occurring Interpreting the change in delta 18 O and deuterium excess in terms of a shift of source region associated with a regime change in the dominant air flow seems reasonable A much more southerly source of vapour could produce both a depleted delta 18 O larger temperature difference and an elevated deuterium excess epica Posted Sep 6 2006 at 8 54 AM Permalink 13 I really hope that Bona Churchill has some more depleted values for recent periods because that would prove that Logan is not a very local or even perturbed record see the discussion in the paper on possible effects of wind scouring Any resemblance between the two records would be highly welcome since this would demonstrate a suffient regional significance something which has been demonstrated for Thompson s Andean icecores We have to live with any result but assuming the Bona Churchill would be exactly the inverse of what it is I dont see how this could make an argument in favor for the importance of GW happening or not Therefore your remark 14 is mainly a question about psychology and I leave it to you to imagine what other people think and what their motivation is and stuff Logan has huge variability which cant be explained by classical rainout intensity driven by condensation temperatures which is why there is also no nearby met stations which would show something resembling to the isotopes from Logan Dunde has relatively small variability and the 20th century rise is exceptional in a 1000 year perspective This does not necessarily mean that Dunde s isotopes mean Temperature alone but you could look at the different isotope records as a hydro climatological tracer in its own rights As Thompson s PNAS paper explains this isotopic tracer often and at different locations shows unusual 20th century values I have seen new soon to be published isotope records from completely independent archives showing something similar 15 Paul I agree with everything you say however condensation temps have a strong influence also on the XS and I am not sure if on Mount Logan circulation changes rather would produce something with opposite sign A circulation change to considerably warmer source temperatures would also rise condensation temperatures and usually the local effects dominate for the isotopes and for the XS The model Fisher uses should take all this into account but for the moment I am not yet convinced of the circulation argument In the Alps Monte Rosa thera are sites where you loose basically the entire winter snow and one could imagine that such scouring effects depend on comparably small wind strength changes Steve McIntyre Posted Sep 6 2006 at 9 26 AM Permalink Don t you have important scouring effects in the Andes as well Wouldn t the same argument apply When you say that regional significance has been established in the Andes what do you mean by that The plots for Quelccaya Sajama and Huascaran look pretty harum scarum to me epica Posted Sep 6 2006 at 9 38 AM Permalink Certainly there is some scouring however with much smaller impact due to the relatively small seasonal isotope cycle and the defined rainy season If you loose winter snow on Logan you shift the signal by nearly 10 or so The Andean records line up nicely on the decadal scale in the 20th century It is very probable that the decadal variability we see before 1900 would line up as well if you shift peaks and lows around withing dating uncertainties For the latter see the work of Stefie Knuesel from the University of Bern think JGR 2003 or so Steve McIntyre Posted Oct 22 2006 at 9 33 PM Permalink Just noticed this progress report from around Oct 2003 The analyses of the Bona Churchill ice cores are now underway in the laboratories at OSU s BPRC The primary measurements that are being made continuously along the length of all cores include the concentration and size distribution of insoluble microparticles dust àŽⲱ8O àŽⳄ and concentrations of the major anion and cation species The upper sections of the cores have been analyzed for total Beta radioactivity The annual accumulation rate has averaged 1100 mm of water equivalent over the recent past As of October 2003 we have analyzed 5600 àŽⲱ8O àŽⳄ dust and chemistry samples representing 320 meters of the 460 meter deep ice core The dust and calcium concentrations show distinct annual variations and the preliminary results suggest that the annually resolved record will cover more than 2500 years This bodes well for the recovery of a very high resolution record of past climatic and environmental variability from these cores It sure is taking a long time bender Posted Oct 22 2006 at 9 51 PM Permalink Re 19 Yes but not as long as those new unpublished bristlecone pine chronologies Steve McIntyre Posted Oct 25 2006 at 3 19 PM Permalink I finally broke down and bought An Inconvenient Truth In a rare bit of insight my local bookstore did not classify it in the Science section The clerk foraged around at first he thought that it was in the Soociology section which would have been an apt classification However it wasn t there He finally located it in the History section And indeed there are some nice vignettes of Al Gore s life interspersed through the book Gore is almost exactly the same age as me and the vignettes and pictures of the 1950s and 1970s have much resonance for me From his bio Gore seems like a very decent man with a fine family I also thought that he was shabbily treated in Bush v Gore I ll post some things about the book at length some time On page 60 61 is a beautiful photograph of the Bona Churchill glacier taken by Lonnie Thompson s team in 2002 MAybe Gore can get Thompson to release the dO18 values from Bona Churchill Dave Dardinger Posted Oct 25 2006 at 4 24 PM Permalink re 21 I also thought that he was shabbily treated in Bush v Gore That s because you weren t and probably still aren t aware of all the things which went on The fact is Gore never had a chance of prevailing given the Republican legislature in Florida and the the Republican majorities in the US Congress but still hoped against hope something would happen just as he buys the hockey stick unthinkingly The only really bad players in the 2000 election were the networks for declaring Gore the winner in Florida even before a number of polling places in the panhandle had closed and the Florida Supreme Court for riding roughshod over the Florida constitution welikerocks Posted Oct 25 2006 at 7 33 PM Permalink 21 22 And I hope you let me say this Steve most of us Americans were just glad the political news commercials for the election would stop and we could go back to normal But no Al would not go away It dragged on for months Every vote counts Al would say and on 20 20 he said it again and the interviewer Leslie Stall maybe said in frustration Yes of course they do and these votes have been counted 3 times sir I am sure Al Gore is a nice man but after awhile I thought he acted beneath the position he wanted to hold President Bush was inaugurated that January but the media didn t stop over and over for months everyone is mad and hating the President for stealing the election All news all the time It continued constantly 9 11 happened that changes the headlines of couse but the hate was still there and stewing and popped up all over the place and it continues I have several friends of various political parties and they voted for Bush both times for that very reason the hate coming from the other side was too incredible to believe in your face everywhere and they didn t want to be a part of it example much like that guy who posted here with CC initials The greatest threat to mankind IS the dis information coming from the media It creates the hate and the drama and is taking over the sciences too as we speak Slevdi Posted Dec 11 2007 at 11 23 AM Permalink I am not an academic so I don t know how to get from this abstract to the real paper http adsabs harvard edu abs 2004AGUFMPP23C 05T The abstract says the paper was published 3 years ago Title 1500 Years of Annual Climate and Environmental Variability as Recorded in Bona Churchill Alaska Ice Cores Authors Thompson L G Mosley Thompson E S Zagorodnov V Davis M E Mashiotta T A Lin P Affiliation AA Byrd Polar Research Center The Ohio State University 1090 Carmack Road Columbus OH 43210 United States Department of Geological Sciences The Ohio State University Columbus OH 43210 United States thompson 3 osu edu AB Byrd Polar Research Center The Ohio State University 1090 Carmack Road Columbus OH 43210 United States Department of Geography The Ohio State University Columbus OH 43210 United States thompson 4 osu edu AC Byrd Polar Research Center The Ohio State University 1090 Carmack Road Columbus OH 43210 United States zagorodnov 1 osu edu AD Byrd Polar Research Center The Ohio State University 1090 Carmack Road Columbus OH 43210 United States davis 3 osu edu AE Byrd Polar Research Center The Ohio State University 1090 Carmack Road Columbus OH 43210 United States mashiotta 1 osu edu AF Byrd Polar Research Center The Ohio State University 1090 Carmack Road Columbus OH 43210 United States lin 25 osu edu Publication American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2004 abstract PP23C 05 Publication Date 12 2004 Origin AGU AGU Keywords 9315 Arctic region 3344 Paleoclimatology 1827 Glaciology 1863 1600 GLOBAL CHANGE New category 1620 Climate dynamics 3309 Bibliographic Code 2004AGUFMPP23C 05T Hu McCulloch Posted Dec 11 2007 at 11 36 AM Permalink Slevdi 24 wrote I am not an academic so I don t know how to get from this abstract to the real paper http adsabs harvard edu abs 2004AGUFMPP23C 05T The abstract says the paper was published 3 years ago Title 1500 Years of Annual Climate and Environmental Variability as Recorded in Bona Churchill Alaska Ice Cores Authors Thompson L G Mosley Thompson E S Zagorodnov V Davis M E Mashiotta T A Lin P This looks like it s just the abstract of an AGU presentation not a published article But in the 11 12 07 thread Gleanings on Bona Churchill Steve turned up a graph of the data at least No CWP 3 Trackbacks By Kaufman et al Obstructed by Thompson and Jacoby Climate Audit on Jun 27 2011 at

    Original URL path: http://climateaudit.org/2006/09/04/my-prediction-for-do18-at-bona-churchill/ (2016-02-09)
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  • The Ocean2K “Hockey Stick” « Climate Audit
    fish with their purse nets dependent of course on the appropriate subsidy being paid them by government The Minister of Fish Rescue says that he is very much taken with the idea as long as the Ministry does not have to subsidize the drying and salting of the rescued fish MikeN Posted Sep 4 2015 at 3 33 PM Permalink Reply To paraphrase Kevin Costner s wife in Field of Dreams What s it got to do with football Don B Posted Sep 4 2015 at 4 38 PM Permalink Reply whatever image one might choose to describe its shape Hockey Stick is not one of them I choose to describe it as a ski jump on the beginner s hill Keeping with the winter sports theme Glenn999 Posted Sep 5 2015 at 7 18 AM Permalink Reply I m thinking spatula though some were ladle like Jay Currie Posted Sep 5 2015 at 5 34 PM Permalink Reply Hockey stick lying on its side with the blade s curve just barely visible Andrew M Garland Posted Sep 4 2015 at 4 59 PM Permalink Reply McIntyre above Only one of the 57 series has a noticeable HS shape and by coincidence no doubt it is the only SST series from this collection that was cited by Appell It seems to me that the 57 series are reconstructions of sea surface temperature over the last 2000 years How is that possible Really The sea surface temperature of large sections of sea in the distant past These are said to be derived from proxy data They measured some other thing and assumed that this other thing was associated with sea surface temperature to within a fraction of a degree How does one prove that association eliminate all of the known confounding factors and bound the unknown ones Are those proxies reliable compared to today s measurements to within a fraction of a degree 57 series all proxies of the same thing the average sea surface temperature in some location or in different locations They don t match one another In peasant terminology they should all squiggle in about he same ways or have the same slopes after some amount of smoothing They don t seem to by my eye So after running complicated statistical alterations themselves prone to error and artifact I don t believe the results 57 series which don t match all proxies of the same thing mutually disprove the reliability of one another and the reconstructions Am I an uninformed peasant mpainter Posted Sep 4 2015 at 5 49 PM Permalink Reply Andrew Welcome to the world of climate science the paleoclimate reconstruction division unreconstructed Adam Gallon Posted Sep 5 2015 at 3 23 AM Permalink Reply Bang on target there Andrew The paleo reconstructors are well aware of this one of the Climategate emails noted this IIRC that all Skeptics had to do was point out how much variation there was and it d pretty well kill off their little industry admkoz Posted Sep 9 2015 at 9 05 AM Permalink Reply It s not quite that bad since the 57 series are from different parts of the ocean Lance Wallace Posted Sep 4 2015 at 5 38 PM Permalink Reply In the SI the authors state The reconstructions were selected from the Ocean2k metadatabase http www pages igbp org workinggroups ocean2k data They go on to provide the 7 criteria for selecting 57 datasets from this metadatabase It would have been nice if they had listed the datasets that did NOT make the cut Even nicer if they gave the reason for each database being deselected But they did not So I thought I would look at the complete set of datasets just to get an idea of the universe from which they selected but the link resulted in a 404 Not found error message I suppose further work would run it down but at that point I thought I better scrub down the outdoor furniture as suggested by the wife mpainter Posted Sep 4 2015 at 5 50 PM Permalink Reply Please let us know if you achieve any results in this most commendable endeavor kim Posted Sep 4 2015 at 7 24 PM Permalink Reply Yes very commendable I hope she s duly appreciative michael hart Posted Sep 4 2015 at 8 33 PM Permalink He could say Sorry honey I got a 404 on the outdoor furniture mpainter Posted Sep 4 2015 at 9 05 PM Permalink Reply And we will all be duly appreciative Maybe 4TimesAYear Posted Sep 4 2015 at 8 27 PM Permalink Reply Reblogged this on 4timesayear s Blog Steven Mosher Posted Sep 4 2015 at 10 56 PM Permalink Reply Appell has our paper listed as a HS he even said our instrument record was a proxy record Richard Drake Posted Sep 5 2015 at 12 31 PM Permalink Reply Stick appeaser Spence UK Posted Sep 5 2015 at 1 51 PM Permalink Reply When I told Appell the hockey stick was about the behaviour of temperatures in paleo times he accused me of lying and told me the stick was about 20th century temperatures He then corrected himself saying it was about temperatures whenever it goes back to apparently he couldn t remember Never has his eye off the ball our David davideisenstadt Posted Sep 8 2015 at 4 20 PM Permalink Reply I emailed him a comment by RGB duke and he threatened to report me to the police for harassment Stacey Posted Sep 5 2015 at 4 05 AM Permalink Reply Glad to see you back on the trail of the lonesome pine I suppose you mus be deflated with all that work you have carried out on footballs The guy got off Sorry slightly ot kim Posted Sep 5 2015 at 4 53 AM Permalink Reply It doesn t even occur to them does it that they better hope this reversal of 1800 years of cooling is predominantly natural If man has reversed that sort of trend we ve used a pitifully inadequate method to sustain it The Little Ice Age was the coldest depths of the Holocene and we re at half precession If the rebound is natural we have a chance of avoiding for longer the cliff at the end of the Holocene Steve let s not coatrack this larger issue kim Posted Sep 5 2015 at 10 29 AM Permalink Reply Okay I ll get me reconstructed hat Thanks for not zamboni ing my large pile of issue Jeff Id Posted Sep 5 2015 at 9 43 AM Permalink Reply I ve often written that it would be amazingly cool to see historic global temperatures After so many hours spent to actually know what the Earth climate had done hundreds and thousands of years ago would be a dream come true I still look at the noisy lines on the graph with hope that some piece of history will show itself The average of the lines is smooth enough that it appears to be a signal but alas with the various problems in the data it just isn t something we can conclude about These data simply don t appear to be very strongly related to temperature It is somewhat interesting to see a higher temp in history with so little uptick in recent years but only because so many proxies take on that shape boreholes for instance I can t convince myself that temperature is the cause of any of them mpainter Posted Sep 5 2015 at 10 30 AM Permalink Reply There is only one proxy that has a demonstrated relationship to temperature d18O It works very well in ice cores and foram deposits but is tricky when applied to cave deposits or corals None of the other proxies have such a well demonstrated relation to temperature For a reliable charting of the climate history of the Holocene see ice core d18O reconstructions These tell an entirely different tale than what the ideologues are trying to peddle with their dubious proxies richardswarthout Posted Sep 5 2015 at 3 16 PM Permalink Reply mpainter Can you post a plot that shows ice core proxie reconstructions or provide a link Thank you Richard mpainter Posted Sep 5 2015 at 4 26 PM Permalink Sorry no link I have seen the d18O paleoclimate reconstructions often my visits to climate blogs This is true science originating over fifty years ago very well understood precise definite at least in ice cores and ocean sediments forams All of your Pleistocene reconstructions are by d18O ice cores The paleoclimate of the whole of the Tertiary has been reconstructed from sediments forams There is really no need for any other temperature proxy but the ideologues hate it like the plague because it utterly refutes the message that they try to push with their tree rings etc However cave deposits and coral d18O are tricky due to other variables Our host Steve McIntyre performed a tree ring study using d18O an original That study was several years ago and you can locate in the archives richardswarthout Posted Sep 5 2015 at 5 29 PM Permalink mpainter Thank you harkin1 Posted Sep 5 2015 at 11 08 AM Permalink Reply So an appell picks cherries and produces a lemon richardswarthout Posted Sep 5 2015 at 3 46 PM Permalink Reply Steve While series with high resolution through the 20th century are not as common as one would like or expect there are some I ve done my own calculations with 20 year bins and will report on them in a later post I have followed your past posts on this and look forward to the upcoming post What wait do you give to Oppo et al 2009 and Rosehthal et al 2013 The Rosenthal paper provides evidence that the cores I believe from the Pacific Warm Pool represents the intermediate waters of the entire pacific Does this relate to the SST What is gained in the Ocean2K Reconstruction by combining all series in one plot Are not the locations of each series extremely important some locations more relative to the global SST than other locations Steve Ocean2K say that they do not include thermocline estimates Thus Rosenthal 2013 which uses thermocline forams is not included Whether it really represents intermediate waters of the entire PAcific is not necessarily graven in stone richardswarthout Posted Sep 5 2015 at 5 30 PM Permalink Reply Thank you Steve Neville Posted Sep 5 2015 at 6 44 PM Permalink Reply I agree with mpainter and wonder why the ice core studies show such a different result than some of the other proxies The Antarctic ice core studies of PAGES 2K showed a warmer period from 141 AD to 1250AD than temps today There was also a 30 year warmer spike from 1671 to 1700 as well The Great Walrus Posted Sep 5 2015 at 10 46 PM Permalink Reply The real reason for the 57 varieties from Wikipedia Heinz 57 is a shortened form of a historical advertising slogan 57 Varieties by the H J Heinz Company located in Pittsburgh Pennsylvania It has come to mean anything that is made from a large number of parts or origins It was developed from the marketing campaign that told consumers about the numerous products available from the Heinz company The first product to be promoted under the new 57 varieties slogan was prepared horseradish By 1940 the term Heinz 57 had become so synonymous with the company the name was used to market a steak sauce omanuel Posted Sep 5 2015 at 11 57 PM Permalink Reply Meltdown Proof Nuclear Reactors http junkscience com 2015 09 05 meltdown proof nuke reactors i vote yes Willis Eschenbach Posted Sep 6 2015 at 12 28 AM Permalink Reply raising the spectre that scarce resources would have to be diverted to providing swimming lessons to impacted fish Oooh that s gonna sting As usual Steve your insights and research far outpace that of the original authors and with your two successful predictions about Pages2K and the Bona Churchill results you ve made more successful predictions of the future than all the alarmists put together Thanks as always for your outstanding blog w See owe to Rich Posted Sep 6 2015 at 3 23 AM Permalink Reply Yes I loved that gentle sarcasm too And it s great to see ClimateAudit getting back to climate rather than weather on a football field Still having read the Financial Post article I can see why those statistical inferences intrigued SM Rich Paul Courtney Posted Sep 6 2015 at 9 39 AM Permalink Reply Not to mention the CAGW caused increased wind velocity too strong for birds to fly Thankfully the Federal agency for teaching birds to fly around windmills is fully staffed and will only need an increased budget to cover this extra task We ll need a whole new agency to make sure no fish is left behind tomdesabla Posted Sep 8 2015 at 3 24 PM Permalink Reply Why does all this teaching of fish to swim and birds to fly remind me of the Chinese Government and their work with Lucky their captive panda that they tried to reintroduce to the wild Supposedly they taught him how to howl and bite etc so he could survive back in the wild The result Wild pandas killed him Neville Posted Sep 6 2015 at 4 04 AM Permalink Reply BTW Dr Roy Spencer has posted the August results for UAH V 6 August is up 0 1c from July http www drroyspencer com 2015 09 uah v6 0 global temperature update for aug 2015 0 28 c mpainter Posted Sep 6 2015 at 8 00 AM Permalink Reply Data bins of 200 years I too eagerly await Steve s contribution to this study with his smaller data bins I also would be curious about any post 1900 data Blasphemous thought global SST anomalies are more determined by rate of meridional ocean overturning circulation than by air temperature by an order of magnitude Richard Drake Posted Sep 6 2015 at 8 20 PM Permalink Reply The blasphemous thought sounds like common sense to me How far beyond the pail can one get j ferguson Posted Sep 7 2015 at 5 45 AM Permalink Reply pail Craig Loehle Posted Sep 6 2015 at 9 37 AM Permalink Reply Sometimes one must conclude that what you are trying to do in science simply will not work Building a perpetual motion machine creating a human horse hybrid pills to turn us all into Einstein just give it up At least 80 of these proxies fall into that category either they don t measure temperature have too much noise or are confounded by other factors For example Esper has long believed that the usual methods for tree ring reconstruction damp out centennial scale fluctuations signals so he tried a new approach Esper J Konter O Krusic P J Saurer M Holzkämper S and Büntgen U 2015 Long term summer temperature variations in the Pyrenees from detrended stable carbon isotopes Geochronometria 42 53 59 I can t vouch for his approach but I applaud the effort Hu McCulloch Posted Sep 6 2015 at 11 35 AM Permalink Reply Although the Phys org press release quotes Evans in the third person it was provided to them by UMd Evans university so it wouldn t be at all surprising if he write it himself mpainter Posted Sep 6 2015 at 4 15 PM Permalink Reply Nor would it surprise anyone The name is Michael Evans He is Associate Professor at the University of Maryland s Department of Geology and Earth System Science Interdisplinary Center In short that institution has binned geology with the AGW crowd Horrid Hu McCulloch Posted Sep 6 2015 at 3 19 PM Permalink Reply In Section 7 of the SI the authors explain how they tested for significance of bin to bin changes We estimated the bin to bin change in standardized temperature dT as the median of all possible 2 point slopes calculable from the available values in the nth and n 1 th bins Supplementary Table S13 The Wilcoxon signed rank test was used to test the null hypothesis that the median slope dT was equal to zero and the z statistic approximation for large sample sizes was used Davis 2002 Thus for example in bin 1100 they have 45 observations and in bin 1300 they have 49 This makes at most 45 series on which they have observed the change and on which they can reasonably use the Wilcoxon signed rank test to test for median change 0 Instead they construct 45 x 49 2205 unmatched pairs of observations and pretend that these are 2205 independent paired observations of changes In fact they re not independent and generally not even matched They have therefore grossly inflated the nominal sample size and hence their z scores It might still be that some of the bin to bin changes are significant but they haven t shown that They have enough series some of which are close together that spatial correlation that violates the test s assumption that pairs are drawn independently may be of concern However this is a much more subtle problem than their inflation of the sample sizes by duplication of data The test also assumes that the unspecified distribution of changes is symmetric about its median of 0 even though this is rarely stated explicitly When symmetry is present this makes the signed rank test more powerful than a simple signs test However it s not an unreasonable assumption in the present instance Hu McCulloch Posted Sep 7 2015 at 8 50 AM Permalink Reply The absurdity of the z scores in SI section 7 and SI table S13 should have been a clue to the reviewers for Nature Geoscience if not to the authors that something was amiss with their calculations For the change in temperature between 1100 and 1300 they report a z score of 14 80 which implies a 2 tailed p value the probability of a type I error of 1 47e 49 Such certainty can never be obtained from noisy data like this Craig Loehle Posted Sep 7 2015 at 10 00 AM Permalink Reply Great catch I have never seen anyone do such a thing The observations ARE paired in the real world they are measurements at two times at the same site To compare all pairs is really unique Hu McCulloch Posted Sep 7 2015 at 10 22 AM Permalink Reply Thanks Craig Using the same innovative technology they are able to claim that even the minuscule decline from 300 median 0 58 sdu to 500 median 0 39 sdu barely visible on the graph is way significant with a z score of 3 58 and a p value of 00003 I d guess that running the test correctly would reduce their z scores by factors of 6 to 7 leaving maybe two of the declines 1100 1300 and 1300 1500 just significant at the 5 level Michael Jankowski Posted Sep 6 2015 at 8 02 PM Permalink Reply The spaghetti of FAQ Fig 1 is ridiculous I have a hard time believing the error envelope wouldn t include the entirety of the bins Streetcred Posted Sep 7 2015 at 4 33 AM Permalink Reply Posted Sep 4 2015 at 10 57 AM and still no response from the bad appel this must be a record somewhere in the world Hu McCulloch Posted Sep 7 2015 at 9 37 AM Permalink Reply Contrary to my earlier comments above at http climateaudit org 2015 09 04 the ocean2k hockey stick comment 763048 it occurs to me now that it would be quite easy to recover the temperature units from their composite of the standardized series They have divided each series x i by its standard deviation sd i and then have taken the average of these n series The coefficient on each x i is therefore 1 n sd i Since these coefficients don t add to 1 this is not a weighted average and the resulting series no longer has temperature units However if the resulting composite is simply multiplied by n sum 1 sd i then it is a weighted average and the temperature units are restored without re calibration In fact under the assumption of this exercise that each temperature calibrated series consists of a common global temperature plus a variable amount of noise this weighted average is in fact a move in the direction of the theoretically optimal Weighted Least Squares rather than in the opposite direction as I had feared the variance of each series will be the variance of the common signal plus the variance of its noise so that the procedure will in fact give less weight to the worst series However any average weighted or unweighted runs up against the problem I mentioned in my earlier comment that Classical Calibration Estimates UC s CCE are the ratio of two normal random variables and hence have infinite absolute first moments and so may not obey a Law of Large Numbers A median based estimator might therefore be more appropriate A median analogue of WLS would be the following Take the equally weighted median of all the series at each point in time Compute the Mean Absolute Deviation MAD across time of each series from the common medians Then assign Importance Weights as in Monte Carlo importance sampling to each series proportional to 1 MAD i and scaled to sum to 1 Then take the weighted median of the series using these importance weights in place of 1 n Use the signs test appropriately modified for the weighting to construct a confidence interval or if you are willing to assume symmetry the Wilcoxon signed rank test Guillaume Leduc Posted Sep 7 2015 at 6 44 PM Permalink Reply it occurs to me now that it would be quite easy to recover the temperature units from their composite of the standardized series Wow Hu it s GREAT you re a GENIUS FYI next time instead of re multiplying by n sum 1 sd i just click on the articles links provided everywhere to get the C numbers or perhaps you just enjoy the idea that the other idiots think that you re smart in such a case just go ahead with your little equations Ed Snack Posted Sep 7 2015 at 7 05 PM Permalink Reply Nice Another snip coauthor heard from Hu McCulloch Posted Sep 7 2015 at 10 06 PM Permalink Reply I see a list of URLs of the temperature calibrated input proxies in the SI but no link to the composite reconstruction in dC values Perhaps you can point us to the page and paragraph PS Ed Leduc is one of the co authors of the McGregor Evans et al study miker613 Posted Sep 8 2015 at 7 46 AM Permalink Leduc is one of the co authors of the McGregor Evans et al study I m sorry to hear that He has done a real good job as presenting himself as a partisan rather than a scientist Ed Snack Posted Sep 10 2015 at 3 57 PM Permalink Hu I got that but based on the snark my opinion stands Sucks to have to polish turds like this because consensus doesn t Guillaume seanbrady Posted Sep 14 2015 at 4 47 PM Permalink Is it possible that the comment is not actually from Guillaume Leduc but from a troll using his name to stir the pot I half expected the last sentence to continue with In such a case just go ahead with your little equations I don t want to talk to you no more you empty headed animal food trough wiper I fart in your general direction Your mother was a hamster and your father smelt of elderberries Steve McIntyre Posted Sep 8 2015 at 7 50 AM Permalink Reply Dear Dr Leduc while the members of your team may be knowledgeable about foraminifera none of the authors to my knowledge are experienced statisticians In my opinion the paper makes a number of dubious methodological choices not least of which are various decisions to degrade data including the decision to bin in 200 year periods and standardize this data a topic on which I plan to post I don t know whether you fully understand the degree of data degradationm but here s what you did to six high resolution some better than 10 year series Two series Pahnke were NA ed out as only in one bin Four series were in two bins and all were set at sqrt 2 2 as shown below extracted from your archive This data degradation is really stupid Also note that the Pahnke data has data for two bins as well but was incorrectly transcribed in your dataset though this clerical error is not material to the results You might also be sure that your facts are right before being quite so chippy I have looked closely at the SI to the article and it does not include the reconstructions as re scaled from SD Units to deg C nor is such calculation shown in the source code which ends with the calculation of Figure 2 Please note that Hu s interest here was in the reconstruction as he and I recognize that the authors have commendably archived their data as used admkoz Posted Sep 8 2015 at 9 21 AM Permalink Is what they did really to make well over half the cells read NaN Or is that just on my screen Hu McCulloch Posted Sep 8 2015 at 11 10 AM Permalink Admkoz It s normal for missing data to be coded as NaN Not a Number since a blank might be misinterpreted as a zero Programs like Matlab and R will recognize this and even have functions that will take averages etc of only the non NaN values Some of the proxy series have no data in several of the bins and hence will be coded NaN there It will be interesting to see what they did with a proxy that had data for only half a bin is it the average of the available data or is it NaN since it is incomplete It will be doubly interesting to learn where these sqrt 2 2 s came from Michael Jankowski Posted Sep 8 2015 at 12 16 PM Permalink That was quite a polite response to a horrible and unprofessional drive by snark from a co author As usual your behavior is commendable Steve even though it had been directed at Hu and not you personally mpainter Posted Sep 8 2015 at 4 34 PM Permalink I have examined the links to the names of the fifteen authors and their fields of study are climatology paleoclimatology oceanography earth science geochemistry biology etc Not one has any mathematical or statistical expertise I doubt that it occurred to any that their study would wind up being dissected at Climate Audit admkoz Posted Sep 9 2015 at 9 08 AM Permalink Hu McCullough The problem I have is I think an issue of calibration The author regularly posts things that make the study look like something I would describe as laughably wrong He then uses a descriptor such as data degradation I am left wondering whether I have misunderstood or whether it s just Canadian understatement Geoff Sherrington Posted Sep 10 2015 at 2 30 AM Permalink Steve that 0 7071 catch is a beaut example of what I have been rabbiting about over at Judith s My contention is that people working with numbers can gain a feel for them that sometimes says Hello there s a number I know better look into this I suspect there are many numbers people who have in their minds a set of numbers useful for work better than looking them up Examples sin 30 0 5 sin 60 0 8660 tan 45 1 pi 3 141592653 Main Fibonacci series 1 1 2 3 5 8 13 21 etc found in the patterns of seed growth in flowers sqrt 2 1 4142 sqrt 3 1 7221 sqt 0 5 0 70710678 0 5 sqrt 2 A solid correlation coefficient is greater than 0 8 speed of light in vacuum 299 792 458 m sec and so on depending a little on your discipline Australians use toilet paper at a velocity over 1 500 km hr faster than the speed of sound Normal body temperature is around 38 deg C Rust On Your Gear Box Is Vile for colours of the rainbow For chemists LIttle BEryl Bates Cries Nightly Over Freddy NAughty Maggie ALan SIngs Poor Sappy CLod to remember the start of the periodic table Gas constant R is 0 082057 L atm mol 1K 1 and so on Those who lack the feel for numbers are prone to carry too many or too few places of significance and might well miss that 0 7071 figure which casts a whole new significance on the data Am I being led by my mind into a realm of foolishness or do others do this too Geoff jeez Posted Sep 10 2015 at 3 13 AM Permalink Geoff I live walking distance from http www sparcsf org and many others So I m with you mpainter Posted Sep 8 2015 at 2 03 PM Permalink Reply Guillaume Leduc given as CNRS Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique France Area of study Paleoclimatology Paleooceanography Seems to have a good command of English Listed as forth of fifteen I think authors of the Oceans 2K study Guillaume congratulations on getting your study published I wonder if you would share with us the reasons for the lengthy interval before publication My guess would be the choosing of a methodology for treating and presenting the data and the lengthy conferences that this process would entail Is this correct kim Posted Sep 9 2015 at 10 29 AM Permalink Sing a song of sixpence The pie is full of lies Break the breaded crust whence Out swarm all the flies The Duke is in his counting house His servant piles it high He scurries so the tim rous mouse The Masque of Paris nigh admkoz Posted Sep 8 2015 at 9 30 AM Permalink Reply I am not a statistician and have no experience with statistics and am more than happy to be shown to be wrong but I just don t get how it is at all valid to average together the standard deviations of different series and then attempt to convert that back to deg C Obviously if you take two random series with two totally different standard deviations and you graph those series separately it would make sense to graph them in SD units if you are trying to show how much they changed But I just don t get how anything meaningful happens when you combine those two in SD units One series could have a standard deviation that is 100 times the other series That smaller series could go up by 10 standard deviations and it would be utterly meaningless in terms of the combined system It would be interesting in terms of the smaller series itself but nothing of relevance for the overall system necessarily happened My salary plods along with a very low standard deviation while my minuscule stock holdings jump all over the place in value However the stocks could go up 10 times more than they usually do without me being more than 1 richer for the year I d love to be able to convert the SD units back to dollars and conclude that I was 1000 richer but sadly that does not work Michael Jankowski Posted Sep 7 2015 at 11 51 AM Permalink Reply Makes me wonder what Mann s reconstructions such as http www ncdc noaa gov paleo pubs mann2003b mann2003b html would look like binned especially under a methodology which is not mining for hockey sticks Seems at first glance that such a global land ocean reconstruction would devastate most of his notable conclusions especially considering how much weight the oceans should get compared to land Richard Drake Posted Sep 7 2015 at 12 34 PM Permalink Reply Oh that they were binned Michael Jankowski Posted Sep 7 2015 at 8 18 PM Permalink Reply Second their money graphic is denominated in SD Units rather than deg C anomaly even though all of the 57 series in their database alkenone Mg Ca foraminifera are denominated in deg C This seems to me and is a pointless degradation of the data that ought to be avoided Particularly when they want to be able to express the decline in deg C as they do in a later table To do so they convert their composite back from SD Units to deg C anomaly using a complicated home made technique I think that there s an easy way of accomplishing what they want to do using conventional statistical techniques I ll show this in a subsequent post According to a post here from a supposed co author the easy way to do it is to just click on the articles links provided everywhere to get the deg C numbers admkoz Posted Sep 8 2015 at 9 31 AM Permalink Reply Which is great for the individual series but not the composite reconstruction John A Hunter Posted Sep 8 2015 at 12 53 AM Permalink Reply Until about 3 months ago I was a lifelong true believer in CAGW then I found this Blog and have been researching both sides since I am astounded at what passes for science in the Alarmist camp and am now convinced that there is NO dependable Alarmist research that is there is so much bias that I can t trust any of it This is a tragedy because we are wasting money and effort that should be used to study the Whole climate system There Will be huge volcanoes or other apocalyptic events as seen on the used to be about Science Channel for which we will need that information to That was by way of introduction as I am a first time poster The comment I wanted to make about this thread is that looking at graphs of Milankovic cycles there appears to be some mechanism that makes temperatures fall relatively slowly during a cooling period and each cooling ends with a much more rapid warming It s obvious looking at the 100 000 year cycles but seems to be true at all scales Does this process have a name If this is a genuine phenomenon then we should be expecting rapid warming now as we come out of the LIA even 20 times faster than we cooled It seems that we should anticipate a hockey stick under natural forcing Then proof of AGW would require some sort of Super Hockey Stick In other words the alarmist not only need to demonstrate a hockey stick but that is steeper than all other natural hockey sticks Or am I drinking out of the toilet David Jay Posted Sep 8 2015 at 11 25 AM Permalink Reply John Nice to have you joining the discussion Let me make a quick observation Steve likes to keep his posts narrowly tailored to the subject of the post Your question would probably receive more responses at one of the more generalist skeptic blogs Can t speak to your source of hydration kim Posted Sep 8 2015 at 7 32 PM Permalink Reply Respect for the Porcelain Empress embraced oft of Sunday Morning Coming Down javiervinos Posted Sep 15 2015 at 8 05 PM

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  • The Ocean2K “Hockey Stick” « Climate Audit
    the impacted fish with their purse nets dependent of course on the appropriate subsidy being paid them by government The Minister of Fish Rescue says that he is very much taken with the idea as long as the Ministry does not have to subsidize the drying and salting of the rescued fish MikeN Posted Sep 4 2015 at 3 33 PM Permalink Reply To paraphrase Kevin Costner s wife in Field of Dreams What s it got to do with football Don B Posted Sep 4 2015 at 4 38 PM Permalink Reply whatever image one might choose to describe its shape Hockey Stick is not one of them I choose to describe it as a ski jump on the beginner s hill Keeping with the winter sports theme Glenn999 Posted Sep 5 2015 at 7 18 AM Permalink Reply I m thinking spatula though some were ladle like Jay Currie Posted Sep 5 2015 at 5 34 PM Permalink Reply Hockey stick lying on its side with the blade s curve just barely visible Andrew M Garland Posted Sep 4 2015 at 4 59 PM Permalink Reply McIntyre above Only one of the 57 series has a noticeable HS shape and by coincidence no doubt it is the only SST series from this collection that was cited by Appell It seems to me that the 57 series are reconstructions of sea surface temperature over the last 2000 years How is that possible Really The sea surface temperature of large sections of sea in the distant past These are said to be derived from proxy data They measured some other thing and assumed that this other thing was associated with sea surface temperature to within a fraction of a degree How does one prove that association eliminate all of the known confounding factors and bound the unknown ones Are those proxies reliable compared to today s measurements to within a fraction of a degree 57 series all proxies of the same thing the average sea surface temperature in some location or in different locations They don t match one another In peasant terminology they should all squiggle in about he same ways or have the same slopes after some amount of smoothing They don t seem to by my eye So after running complicated statistical alterations themselves prone to error and artifact I don t believe the results 57 series which don t match all proxies of the same thing mutually disprove the reliability of one another and the reconstructions Am I an uninformed peasant mpainter Posted Sep 4 2015 at 5 49 PM Permalink Reply Andrew Welcome to the world of climate science the paleoclimate reconstruction division unreconstructed Adam Gallon Posted Sep 5 2015 at 3 23 AM Permalink Reply Bang on target there Andrew The paleo reconstructors are well aware of this one of the Climategate emails noted this IIRC that all Skeptics had to do was point out how much variation there was and it d pretty well kill off their little industry admkoz Posted Sep 9 2015 at 9 05 AM Permalink Reply It s not quite that bad since the 57 series are from different parts of the ocean Lance Wallace Posted Sep 4 2015 at 5 38 PM Permalink Reply In the SI the authors state The reconstructions were selected from the Ocean2k metadatabase http www pages igbp org workinggroups ocean2k data They go on to provide the 7 criteria for selecting 57 datasets from this metadatabase It would have been nice if they had listed the datasets that did NOT make the cut Even nicer if they gave the reason for each database being deselected But they did not So I thought I would look at the complete set of datasets just to get an idea of the universe from which they selected but the link resulted in a 404 Not found error message I suppose further work would run it down but at that point I thought I better scrub down the outdoor furniture as suggested by the wife mpainter Posted Sep 4 2015 at 5 50 PM Permalink Reply Please let us know if you achieve any results in this most commendable endeavor kim Posted Sep 4 2015 at 7 24 PM Permalink Reply Yes very commendable I hope she s duly appreciative michael hart Posted Sep 4 2015 at 8 33 PM Permalink He could say Sorry honey I got a 404 on the outdoor furniture mpainter Posted Sep 4 2015 at 9 05 PM Permalink Reply And we will all be duly appreciative Maybe 4TimesAYear Posted Sep 4 2015 at 8 27 PM Permalink Reply Reblogged this on 4timesayear s Blog Steven Mosher Posted Sep 4 2015 at 10 56 PM Permalink Reply Appell has our paper listed as a HS he even said our instrument record was a proxy record Richard Drake Posted Sep 5 2015 at 12 31 PM Permalink Reply Stick appeaser Spence UK Posted Sep 5 2015 at 1 51 PM Permalink Reply When I told Appell the hockey stick was about the behaviour of temperatures in paleo times he accused me of lying and told me the stick was about 20th century temperatures He then corrected himself saying it was about temperatures whenever it goes back to apparently he couldn t remember Never has his eye off the ball our David davideisenstadt Posted Sep 8 2015 at 4 20 PM Permalink Reply I emailed him a comment by RGB duke and he threatened to report me to the police for harassment Stacey Posted Sep 5 2015 at 4 05 AM Permalink Reply Glad to see you back on the trail of the lonesome pine I suppose you mus be deflated with all that work you have carried out on footballs The guy got off Sorry slightly ot kim Posted Sep 5 2015 at 4 53 AM Permalink Reply It doesn t even occur to them does it that they better hope this reversal of 1800 years of cooling is predominantly natural If man has reversed that sort of trend we ve used a pitifully inadequate method to sustain it The Little Ice Age was the coldest depths of the Holocene and we re at half precession If the rebound is natural we have a chance of avoiding for longer the cliff at the end of the Holocene Steve let s not coatrack this larger issue kim Posted Sep 5 2015 at 10 29 AM Permalink Reply Okay I ll get me reconstructed hat Thanks for not zamboni ing my large pile of issue Jeff Id Posted Sep 5 2015 at 9 43 AM Permalink Reply I ve often written that it would be amazingly cool to see historic global temperatures After so many hours spent to actually know what the Earth climate had done hundreds and thousands of years ago would be a dream come true I still look at the noisy lines on the graph with hope that some piece of history will show itself The average of the lines is smooth enough that it appears to be a signal but alas with the various problems in the data it just isn t something we can conclude about These data simply don t appear to be very strongly related to temperature It is somewhat interesting to see a higher temp in history with so little uptick in recent years but only because so many proxies take on that shape boreholes for instance I can t convince myself that temperature is the cause of any of them mpainter Posted Sep 5 2015 at 10 30 AM Permalink Reply There is only one proxy that has a demonstrated relationship to temperature d18O It works very well in ice cores and foram deposits but is tricky when applied to cave deposits or corals None of the other proxies have such a well demonstrated relation to temperature For a reliable charting of the climate history of the Holocene see ice core d18O reconstructions These tell an entirely different tale than what the ideologues are trying to peddle with their dubious proxies richardswarthout Posted Sep 5 2015 at 3 16 PM Permalink Reply mpainter Can you post a plot that shows ice core proxie reconstructions or provide a link Thank you Richard mpainter Posted Sep 5 2015 at 4 26 PM Permalink Sorry no link I have seen the d18O paleoclimate reconstructions often my visits to climate blogs This is true science originating over fifty years ago very well understood precise definite at least in ice cores and ocean sediments forams All of your Pleistocene reconstructions are by d18O ice cores The paleoclimate of the whole of the Tertiary has been reconstructed from sediments forams There is really no need for any other temperature proxy but the ideologues hate it like the plague because it utterly refutes the message that they try to push with their tree rings etc However cave deposits and coral d18O are tricky due to other variables Our host Steve McIntyre performed a tree ring study using d18O an original That study was several years ago and you can locate in the archives richardswarthout Posted Sep 5 2015 at 5 29 PM Permalink mpainter Thank you harkin1 Posted Sep 5 2015 at 11 08 AM Permalink Reply So an appell picks cherries and produces a lemon richardswarthout Posted Sep 5 2015 at 3 46 PM Permalink Reply Steve While series with high resolution through the 20th century are not as common as one would like or expect there are some I ve done my own calculations with 20 year bins and will report on them in a later post I have followed your past posts on this and look forward to the upcoming post What wait do you give to Oppo et al 2009 and Rosehthal et al 2013 The Rosenthal paper provides evidence that the cores I believe from the Pacific Warm Pool represents the intermediate waters of the entire pacific Does this relate to the SST What is gained in the Ocean2K Reconstruction by combining all series in one plot Are not the locations of each series extremely important some locations more relative to the global SST than other locations Steve Ocean2K say that they do not include thermocline estimates Thus Rosenthal 2013 which uses thermocline forams is not included Whether it really represents intermediate waters of the entire PAcific is not necessarily graven in stone richardswarthout Posted Sep 5 2015 at 5 30 PM Permalink Reply Thank you Steve Neville Posted Sep 5 2015 at 6 44 PM Permalink Reply I agree with mpainter and wonder why the ice core studies show such a different result than some of the other proxies The Antarctic ice core studies of PAGES 2K showed a warmer period from 141 AD to 1250AD than temps today There was also a 30 year warmer spike from 1671 to 1700 as well The Great Walrus Posted Sep 5 2015 at 10 46 PM Permalink Reply The real reason for the 57 varieties from Wikipedia Heinz 57 is a shortened form of a historical advertising slogan 57 Varieties by the H J Heinz Company located in Pittsburgh Pennsylvania It has come to mean anything that is made from a large number of parts or origins It was developed from the marketing campaign that told consumers about the numerous products available from the Heinz company The first product to be promoted under the new 57 varieties slogan was prepared horseradish By 1940 the term Heinz 57 had become so synonymous with the company the name was used to market a steak sauce omanuel Posted Sep 5 2015 at 11 57 PM Permalink Reply Meltdown Proof Nuclear Reactors http junkscience com 2015 09 05 meltdown proof nuke reactors i vote yes Willis Eschenbach Posted Sep 6 2015 at 12 28 AM Permalink Reply raising the spectre that scarce resources would have to be diverted to providing swimming lessons to impacted fish Oooh that s gonna sting As usual Steve your insights and research far outpace that of the original authors and with your two successful predictions about Pages2K and the Bona Churchill results you ve made more successful predictions of the future than all the alarmists put together Thanks as always for your outstanding blog w See owe to Rich Posted Sep 6 2015 at 3 23 AM Permalink Reply Yes I loved that gentle sarcasm too And it s great to see ClimateAudit getting back to climate rather than weather on a football field Still having read the Financial Post article I can see why those statistical inferences intrigued SM Rich Paul Courtney Posted Sep 6 2015 at 9 39 AM Permalink Reply Not to mention the CAGW caused increased wind velocity too strong for birds to fly Thankfully the Federal agency for teaching birds to fly around windmills is fully staffed and will only need an increased budget to cover this extra task We ll need a whole new agency to make sure no fish is left behind tomdesabla Posted Sep 8 2015 at 3 24 PM Permalink Reply Why does all this teaching of fish to swim and birds to fly remind me of the Chinese Government and their work with Lucky their captive panda that they tried to reintroduce to the wild Supposedly they taught him how to howl and bite etc so he could survive back in the wild The result Wild pandas killed him Neville Posted Sep 6 2015 at 4 04 AM Permalink Reply BTW Dr Roy Spencer has posted the August results for UAH V 6 August is up 0 1c from July http www drroyspencer com 2015 09 uah v6 0 global temperature update for aug 2015 0 28 c mpainter Posted Sep 6 2015 at 8 00 AM Permalink Reply Data bins of 200 years I too eagerly await Steve s contribution to this study with his smaller data bins I also would be curious about any post 1900 data Blasphemous thought global SST anomalies are more determined by rate of meridional ocean overturning circulation than by air temperature by an order of magnitude Richard Drake Posted Sep 6 2015 at 8 20 PM Permalink Reply The blasphemous thought sounds like common sense to me How far beyond the pail can one get j ferguson Posted Sep 7 2015 at 5 45 AM Permalink Reply pail Craig Loehle Posted Sep 6 2015 at 9 37 AM Permalink Reply Sometimes one must conclude that what you are trying to do in science simply will not work Building a perpetual motion machine creating a human horse hybrid pills to turn us all into Einstein just give it up At least 80 of these proxies fall into that category either they don t measure temperature have too much noise or are confounded by other factors For example Esper has long believed that the usual methods for tree ring reconstruction damp out centennial scale fluctuations signals so he tried a new approach Esper J Konter O Krusic P J Saurer M Holzkämper S and Büntgen U 2015 Long term summer temperature variations in the Pyrenees from detrended stable carbon isotopes Geochronometria 42 53 59 I can t vouch for his approach but I applaud the effort Hu McCulloch Posted Sep 6 2015 at 11 35 AM Permalink Reply Although the Phys org press release quotes Evans in the third person it was provided to them by UMd Evans university so it wouldn t be at all surprising if he write it himself mpainter Posted Sep 6 2015 at 4 15 PM Permalink Reply Nor would it surprise anyone The name is Michael Evans He is Associate Professor at the University of Maryland s Department of Geology and Earth System Science Interdisplinary Center In short that institution has binned geology with the AGW crowd Horrid Hu McCulloch Posted Sep 6 2015 at 3 19 PM Permalink Reply In Section 7 of the SI the authors explain how they tested for significance of bin to bin changes We estimated the bin to bin change in standardized temperature dT as the median of all possible 2 point slopes calculable from the available values in the nth and n 1 th bins Supplementary Table S13 The Wilcoxon signed rank test was used to test the null hypothesis that the median slope dT was equal to zero and the z statistic approximation for large sample sizes was used Davis 2002 Thus for example in bin 1100 they have 45 observations and in bin 1300 they have 49 This makes at most 45 series on which they have observed the change and on which they can reasonably use the Wilcoxon signed rank test to test for median change 0 Instead they construct 45 x 49 2205 unmatched pairs of observations and pretend that these are 2205 independent paired observations of changes In fact they re not independent and generally not even matched They have therefore grossly inflated the nominal sample size and hence their z scores It might still be that some of the bin to bin changes are significant but they haven t shown that They have enough series some of which are close together that spatial correlation that violates the test s assumption that pairs are drawn independently may be of concern However this is a much more subtle problem than their inflation of the sample sizes by duplication of data The test also assumes that the unspecified distribution of changes is symmetric about its median of 0 even though this is rarely stated explicitly When symmetry is present this makes the signed rank test more powerful than a simple signs test However it s not an unreasonable assumption in the present instance Hu McCulloch Posted Sep 7 2015 at 8 50 AM Permalink Reply The absurdity of the z scores in SI section 7 and SI table S13 should have been a clue to the reviewers for Nature Geoscience if not to the authors that something was amiss with their calculations For the change in temperature between 1100 and 1300 they report a z score of 14 80 which implies a 2 tailed p value the probability of a type I error of 1 47e 49 Such certainty can never be obtained from noisy data like this Craig Loehle Posted Sep 7 2015 at 10 00 AM Permalink Reply Great catch I have never seen anyone do such a thing The observations ARE paired in the real world they are measurements at two times at the same site To compare all pairs is really unique Hu McCulloch Posted Sep 7 2015 at 10 22 AM Permalink Reply Thanks Craig Using the same innovative technology they are able to claim that even the minuscule decline from 300 median 0 58 sdu to 500 median 0 39 sdu barely visible on the graph is way significant with a z score of 3 58 and a p value of 00003 I d guess that running the test correctly would reduce their z scores by factors of 6 to 7 leaving maybe two of the declines 1100 1300 and 1300 1500 just significant at the 5 level Michael Jankowski Posted Sep 6 2015 at 8 02 PM Permalink Reply The spaghetti of FAQ Fig 1 is ridiculous I have a hard time believing the error envelope wouldn t include the entirety of the bins Streetcred Posted Sep 7 2015 at 4 33 AM Permalink Reply Posted Sep 4 2015 at 10 57 AM and still no response from the bad appel this must be a record somewhere in the world Hu McCulloch Posted Sep 7 2015 at 9 37 AM Permalink Reply Contrary to my earlier comments above at http climateaudit org 2015 09 04 the ocean2k hockey stick comment 763048 it occurs to me now that it would be quite easy to recover the temperature units from their composite of the standardized series They have divided each series x i by its standard deviation sd i and then have taken the average of these n series The coefficient on each x i is therefore 1 n sd i Since these coefficients don t add to 1 this is not a weighted average and the resulting series no longer has temperature units However if the resulting composite is simply multiplied by n sum 1 sd i then it is a weighted average and the temperature units are restored without re calibration In fact under the assumption of this exercise that each temperature calibrated series consists of a common global temperature plus a variable amount of noise this weighted average is in fact a move in the direction of the theoretically optimal Weighted Least Squares rather than in the opposite direction as I had feared the variance of each series will be the variance of the common signal plus the variance of its noise so that the procedure will in fact give less weight to the worst series However any average weighted or unweighted runs up against the problem I mentioned in my earlier comment that Classical Calibration Estimates UC s CCE are the ratio of two normal random variables and hence have infinite absolute first moments and so may not obey a Law of Large Numbers A median based estimator might therefore be more appropriate A median analogue of WLS would be the following Take the equally weighted median of all the series at each point in time Compute the Mean Absolute Deviation MAD across time of each series from the common medians Then assign Importance Weights as in Monte Carlo importance sampling to each series proportional to 1 MAD i and scaled to sum to 1 Then take the weighted median of the series using these importance weights in place of 1 n Use the signs test appropriately modified for the weighting to construct a confidence interval or if you are willing to assume symmetry the Wilcoxon signed rank test Guillaume Leduc Posted Sep 7 2015 at 6 44 PM Permalink Reply it occurs to me now that it would be quite easy to recover the temperature units from their composite of the standardized series Wow Hu it s GREAT you re a GENIUS FYI next time instead of re multiplying by n sum 1 sd i just click on the articles links provided everywhere to get the C numbers or perhaps you just enjoy the idea that the other idiots think that you re smart in such a case just go ahead with your little equations Ed Snack Posted Sep 7 2015 at 7 05 PM Permalink Reply Nice Another snip coauthor heard from Hu McCulloch Posted Sep 7 2015 at 10 06 PM Permalink Reply I see a list of URLs of the temperature calibrated input proxies in the SI but no link to the composite reconstruction in dC values Perhaps you can point us to the page and paragraph PS Ed Leduc is one of the co authors of the McGregor Evans et al study miker613 Posted Sep 8 2015 at 7 46 AM Permalink Leduc is one of the co authors of the McGregor Evans et al study I m sorry to hear that He has done a real good job as presenting himself as a partisan rather than a scientist Ed Snack Posted Sep 10 2015 at 3 57 PM Permalink Hu I got that but based on the snark my opinion stands Sucks to have to polish turds like this because consensus doesn t Guillaume seanbrady Posted Sep 14 2015 at 4 47 PM Permalink Is it possible that the comment is not actually from Guillaume Leduc but from a troll using his name to stir the pot I half expected the last sentence to continue with In such a case just go ahead with your little equations I don t want to talk to you no more you empty headed animal food trough wiper I fart in your general direction Your mother was a hamster and your father smelt of elderberries Steve McIntyre Posted Sep 8 2015 at 7 50 AM Permalink Reply Dear Dr Leduc while the members of your team may be knowledgeable about foraminifera none of the authors to my knowledge are experienced statisticians In my opinion the paper makes a number of dubious methodological choices not least of which are various decisions to degrade data including the decision to bin in 200 year periods and standardize this data a topic on which I plan to post I don t know whether you fully understand the degree of data degradationm but here s what you did to six high resolution some better than 10 year series Two series Pahnke were NA ed out as only in one bin Four series were in two bins and all were set at sqrt 2 2 as shown below extracted from your archive This data degradation is really stupid Also note that the Pahnke data has data for two bins as well but was incorrectly transcribed in your dataset though this clerical error is not material to the results You might also be sure that your facts are right before being quite so chippy I have looked closely at the SI to the article and it does not include the reconstructions as re scaled from SD Units to deg C nor is such calculation shown in the source code which ends with the calculation of Figure 2 Please note that Hu s interest here was in the reconstruction as he and I recognize that the authors have commendably archived their data as used admkoz Posted Sep 8 2015 at 9 21 AM Permalink Is what they did really to make well over half the cells read NaN Or is that just on my screen Hu McCulloch Posted Sep 8 2015 at 11 10 AM Permalink Admkoz It s normal for missing data to be coded as NaN Not a Number since a blank might be misinterpreted as a zero Programs like Matlab and R will recognize this and even have functions that will take averages etc of only the non NaN values Some of the proxy series have no data in several of the bins and hence will be coded NaN there It will be interesting to see what they did with a proxy that had data for only half a bin is it the average of the available data or is it NaN since it is incomplete It will be doubly interesting to learn where these sqrt 2 2 s came from Michael Jankowski Posted Sep 8 2015 at 12 16 PM Permalink That was quite a polite response to a horrible and unprofessional drive by snark from a co author As usual your behavior is commendable Steve even though it had been directed at Hu and not you personally mpainter Posted Sep 8 2015 at 4 34 PM Permalink I have examined the links to the names of the fifteen authors and their fields of study are climatology paleoclimatology oceanography earth science geochemistry biology etc Not one has any mathematical or statistical expertise I doubt that it occurred to any that their study would wind up being dissected at Climate Audit admkoz Posted Sep 9 2015 at 9 08 AM Permalink Hu McCullough The problem I have is I think an issue of calibration The author regularly posts things that make the study look like something I would describe as laughably wrong He then uses a descriptor such as data degradation I am left wondering whether I have misunderstood or whether it s just Canadian understatement Geoff Sherrington Posted Sep 10 2015 at 2 30 AM Permalink Steve that 0 7071 catch is a beaut example of what I have been rabbiting about over at Judith s My contention is that people working with numbers can gain a feel for them that sometimes says Hello there s a number I know better look into this I suspect there are many numbers people who have in their minds a set of numbers useful for work better than looking them up Examples sin 30 0 5 sin 60 0 8660 tan 45 1 pi 3 141592653 Main Fibonacci series 1 1 2 3 5 8 13 21 etc found in the patterns of seed growth in flowers sqrt 2 1 4142 sqrt 3 1 7221 sqt 0 5 0 70710678 0 5 sqrt 2 A solid correlation coefficient is greater than 0 8 speed of light in vacuum 299 792 458 m sec and so on depending a little on your discipline Australians use toilet paper at a velocity over 1 500 km hr faster than the speed of sound Normal body temperature is around 38 deg C Rust On Your Gear Box Is Vile for colours of the rainbow For chemists LIttle BEryl Bates Cries Nightly Over Freddy NAughty Maggie ALan SIngs Poor Sappy CLod to remember the start of the periodic table Gas constant R is 0 082057 L atm mol 1K 1 and so on Those who lack the feel for numbers are prone to carry too many or too few places of significance and might well miss that 0 7071 figure which casts a whole new significance on the data Am I being led by my mind into a realm of foolishness or do others do this too Geoff jeez Posted Sep 10 2015 at 3 13 AM Permalink Geoff I live walking distance from http www sparcsf org and many others So I m with you mpainter Posted Sep 8 2015 at 2 03 PM Permalink Reply Guillaume Leduc given as CNRS Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique France Area of study Paleoclimatology Paleooceanography Seems to have a good command of English Listed as forth of fifteen I think authors of the Oceans 2K study Guillaume congratulations on getting your study published I wonder if you would share with us the reasons for the lengthy interval before publication My guess would be the choosing of a methodology for treating and presenting the data and the lengthy conferences that this process would entail Is this correct kim Posted Sep 9 2015 at 10 29 AM Permalink Sing a song of sixpence The pie is full of lies Break the breaded crust whence Out swarm all the flies The Duke is in his counting house His servant piles it high He scurries so the tim rous mouse The Masque of Paris nigh admkoz Posted Sep 8 2015 at 9 30 AM Permalink Reply I am not a statistician and have no experience with statistics and am more than happy to be shown to be wrong but I just don t get how it is at all valid to average together the standard deviations of different series and then attempt to convert that back to deg C Obviously if you take two random series with two totally different standard deviations and you graph those series separately it would make sense to graph them in SD units if you are trying to show how much they changed But I just don t get how anything meaningful happens when you combine those two in SD units One series could have a standard deviation that is 100 times the other series That smaller series could go up by 10 standard deviations and it would be utterly meaningless in terms of the combined system It would be interesting in terms of the smaller series itself but nothing of relevance for the overall system necessarily happened My salary plods along with a very low standard deviation while my minuscule stock holdings jump all over the place in value However the stocks could go up 10 times more than they usually do without me being more than 1 richer for the year I d love to be able to convert the SD units back to dollars and conclude that I was 1000 richer but sadly that does not work Michael Jankowski Posted Sep 7 2015 at 11 51 AM Permalink Reply Makes me wonder what Mann s reconstructions such as http www ncdc noaa gov paleo pubs mann2003b mann2003b html would look like binned especially under a methodology which is not mining for hockey sticks Seems at first glance that such a global land ocean reconstruction would devastate most of his notable conclusions especially considering how much weight the oceans should get compared to land Richard Drake Posted Sep 7 2015 at 12 34 PM Permalink Reply Oh that they were binned Michael Jankowski Posted Sep 7 2015 at 8 18 PM Permalink Reply Second their money graphic is denominated in SD Units rather than deg C anomaly even though all of the 57 series in their database alkenone Mg Ca foraminifera are denominated in deg C This seems to me and is a pointless degradation of the data that ought to be avoided Particularly when they want to be able to express the decline in deg C as they do in a later table To do so they convert their composite back from SD Units to deg C anomaly using a complicated home made technique I think that there s an easy way of accomplishing what they want to do using conventional statistical techniques I ll show this in a subsequent post According to a post here from a supposed co author the easy way to do it is to just click on the articles links provided everywhere to get the deg C numbers admkoz Posted Sep 8 2015 at 9 31 AM Permalink Reply Which is great for the individual series but not the composite reconstruction John A Hunter Posted Sep 8 2015 at 12 53 AM Permalink Reply Until about 3 months ago I was a lifelong true believer in CAGW then I found this Blog and have been researching both sides since I am astounded at what passes for science in the Alarmist camp and am now convinced that there is NO dependable Alarmist research that is there is so much bias that I can t trust any of it This is a tragedy because we are wasting money and effort that should be used to study the Whole climate system There Will be huge volcanoes or other apocalyptic events as seen on the used to be about Science Channel for which we will need that information to That was by way of introduction as I am a first time poster The comment I wanted to make about this thread is that looking at graphs of Milankovic cycles there appears to be some mechanism that makes temperatures fall relatively slowly during a cooling period and each cooling ends with a much more rapid warming It s obvious looking at the 100 000 year cycles but seems to be true at all scales Does this process have a name If this is a genuine phenomenon then we should be expecting rapid warming now as we come out of the LIA even 20 times faster than we cooled It seems that we should anticipate a hockey stick under natural forcing Then proof of AGW would require some sort of Super Hockey Stick In other words the alarmist not only need to demonstrate a hockey stick but that is steeper than all other natural hockey sticks Or am I drinking out of the toilet David Jay Posted Sep 8 2015 at 11 25 AM Permalink Reply John Nice to have you joining the discussion Let me make a quick observation Steve likes to keep his posts narrowly tailored to the subject of the post Your question would probably receive more responses at one of the more generalist skeptic blogs Can t speak to your source of hydration kim Posted Sep 8 2015 at 7 32 PM Permalink Reply Respect for the Porcelain Empress embraced oft of Sunday Morning Coming Down javiervinos Posted Sep 15 2015 at 8

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  • Ocean sediment « Climate Audit
    Comments 32 David Black Cariaco and Prompt Archiving Oct 30 2007 1 49 PM David Black and associates have just Oct 2007 published a new paper showing a reconstruction of SST from Cariaco sediments using Mg Ca for the period 1221 1990 thanks to Eduardo Zorita for alerting me to the study In this case I am happily able to report that the relevant data was archived at WDCP contemporary with By Steve McIntyre Also posted in Proxies Tagged bulloides cariaco david black PL07 73 BC Comments 19 A Coarse Fraction Bias in Arabian Sea G Bulloides Oct 28 2007 1 21 PM In our recent discussion of the Arabian Sea G Bulloides series I noticed a remarkable increase in the coarse fraction percentage in the top 1 3 cm of the critical RC2730 core Willis has also commented on this In core 2730 there is a correlation of 0 91 between the fraction of coarse particles and the percentage By Steve McIntyre Tagged arabian sea RC2730 Comments 45 The Arabian Splice Oct 26 2007 10 16 PM One of the reasons why scientists have been so quick to use tree ring information despite all the problems is that for the most part there is excellent dating control on tree ring chronologies something which can be problematic in other proxies Today I want to document some notes on dating the Arabian Sea G By Steve McIntyre Also posted in Moberg 2005 Proxies Comments 19 Older posts Newer posts Tip Jar The Tip Jar is working again via a temporary location Pages About Blog Rules and Road Map CA Assistant CA blog setup Contact Steve Mc Econometric References FAQ 2005 Gridded Data High Resolution Ocean Sediments Hockey Stick Studies Proxy Data Station Data Statistics and R Subscribe to CA Tip Jar Categories Categories Select Category AIT Archiving Nature Science climategate cg2 Data Disclosure and Diligence Peer Review FOIA General Holocene Optimum Hurricane Inquiries Muir Russell IPCC ar5 MBH98 Replication Source Code Spot the Hockey Stick Modeling Hansen Santer UK Met Office Multiproxy Studies Briffa Crowley D Arrigo 2006 Esper et al 2002 Hansen Hegerl 2006 Jones Mann 2003 Jones et al 1998 Juckes et al 2006 Kaufman 2009 Loehle 2007 Loehle 2008 Mann et al 2007 Mann et al 2008 Mann et al 2009 Marcott 2013 Moberg 2005 pages2k Trouet 2009 Wahl and Ammann News and Commentary MM Proxies Almagre Antarctica bristlecones Divergence Geological Ice core Jacoby Mann PC1 Medieval Noamer Treeline Ocean sediment Post 1980 Proxies Solar Speleothem Thompson Yamal and Urals Reports Barton Committee NAS Panel Satellite and gridcell Scripts Sea Ice Sea Level Rise Statistics Multivariate RegEM Spurious Steig at al 2009 Surface Record CRU GISTEMP GISTEMP Replication Jones et al 1990 SST Steig at al 2009 UHI TGGWS Uncategorized Unthreaded Articles CCSP Workshop Nov05 McIntyre McKitrick 2003 MM05 GRL MM05 EE NAS Panel Reply to Huybers Reply to von Storch Blogroll Accuweather Blogs Andrew Revkin Anthony Watts Bishop Hill Bob Tisdale Dan Hughes David Stockwell Icecap Idsos

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  • Important New North American East Coast Proxy Data « Climate Audit
    ever the skeptic I would be concerned about two proximately located proxy sites converging and diverging significantly over time in proxy response both in absolute temperature and trends I see your intent to show proxy series in opposition to those as presented by Marcott but I am wondering if you could make a case for using alkenone response as temperature proxies and what potential problems could exist in making this relationship I am ever optimistic that a proper search from the basic physics and not after the fact selection for reliable temperature proxies could find some even if the response was not always direct and needed adjustments I would also think that proxies where the physical understanding is most straightforward and best understood would be the most fertile ground for those searches Those promising ones are listed in the links below and include alkenones http en wikipedia org wiki Paleothermometer http en wikipedia org wiki Alkenone Matt Skaggs Posted Jan 22 2015 at 3 43 PM Permalink Kenneth wrote I would be concerned about two proximately located proxy sites converging and diverging significantly over time in proxy response both in absolute temperature and trends Quite so They are proximate but in different sedimentation regimes so once again there are questions about whether all the variables are properly controlled I wonder if anyone has tried taking two cores that are very proximate like within a quarter mile of each other to show consistency michael hart Posted Jan 23 2015 at 12 13 PM Permalink Alkenones have different issues to tree rings etc But ultimately they are still biological proxies where nobody really knows why they produce the amounts ratios they do I have certainly seen nutrient run off from the land mentioned as a confounding factor RichardS Posted Jan 23 2015 at 11 10 PM Permalink A thought from the back of the room Is it a mistake to pursue a global reconstruction Would regional reconstructions be more accurate The following paper developed a regional reconstruction which could be useful to those working on attribution I might be wrong On The Natural Variability of the Pre Industrial European Climate Bengtsson et al 2006 Here is an excerpt We suggest that climate variability in Europe for the pre industrial period 1500 1900 is fundamentally a consequence of internal fluctuations of the climate system http www glerl noaa gov seagrant ClimateChangeWhiteboard Resources Uncertainty Mac1 bengtsen06PR pdf Thank you for listening Richard Matt Skaggs Posted Jan 23 2015 at 2 12 PM Permalink With a little research I see that Emerald Basin has been extensively cored I was hoping to see if I could pull out some quality assurance data core to core consistency but too much is paywalled ducdorleans Posted Jan 22 2015 at 1 11 PM Permalink what worries me a bit is that I don t see any MWP of LIA on these charts or are they that futile on a 12000 year scale Dr Norman Page Posted Jan 22 2015 at 1 38 PM Permalink For these details see Figs 5 9 and 10 C D at http climatesense norpag blogspot com 2014 07 climate forecasting methods and cooling html BallBounces Posted Jan 22 2015 at 1 17 PM Permalink Flawed ulent bwahahaha He tawt he taw a puddy tat but it was entirely flawed ulent An Elmer Fuddism at its best EdeF Posted Jan 22 2015 at 5 45 PM Permalink Wondering why the Emerald Basin proxy in the left hand side of Fig 2 has elevated values before 11kyr BP The three other proxies have reduced values increasing to about 11 kyr BP and then diminishing as expected When does Emerald Basin realize its highest value Very interesting data but I am having a hard time understanding the gigantic differences in deltaT among the proxies for a given year in the past Imagine being somewhere in the northern hemisphere 11 kyr BP in July You are at perihelion and also the NH is tilted toward the sun SPF 4000 anyone EdeF Posted Jan 22 2015 at 10 34 PM Permalink Forgot for a moment about the top like behaviour of the earth about its vertical axis It also precesses about this axis as it makes its loop around the sun don t recall the rate of this but we can t guarantee that maximum solar radiance will strike the NH when it is also at Perihelion Looking again at Fig 2 above are we not in or close to being in a transition period for emerging from an 11 kyr slide in temperatures in the NH and then an equally start of a decline in SH temperatures Those would tend to balance out but if we have many more proxies and also WX stations in the NH wouldn t a natural uptick in the NH data look like a systemic rise in world temperatures Stu Miller Posted Jan 22 2015 at 7 39 PM Permalink Steve In paragraph 5 of the discussion you forgot to note that there is an odor of flawed ulence clinging to the Marcott paper Nick Stokes Posted Jan 22 2015 at 8 51 PM Permalink As high resolution ocean SST data over the past two millennia the new Sicre data is also relevant to the popular two millennium reconstruction period but the new data is about as opposite to a Hockey Stick as one can imagine The whole point of Sicre s paper is that they chose sites that are very sensitive to movements in the Labrador Current These are not only not coordinated with global SST but seem to move in anti phase Their Fig 6 for example emphasises how during the MWP when alkenone SST was high near Iceland it dropped substantially at the NE site and less so at the SE site Their conclusion In contrast the NE Newfoundland record shows that LC circulation is tightly linked to Arctic atmospheric conditions NAM which in turn modulate the advection pathway of cold ice loaded Polar Waters from the Arctic This is illustrated by virtue of a generally enhanced LC during the MCA and an overall weaker LC and likely decreased AMOC during the LIA Lund et al 2006 If this MCA LIA pattern is to be considered analogous to generally warmer colder climates in the subpolar North Atlantic it would suggest the possibility of increasing LC strength in a future warmer climate This would not only imply a colder future climate off eastern Canada IOW recent warming should result in cooler Newfoundland SST Steve if global warming causes both warmer and cooler SSTs almost anything can be rationalized ex post At face value I presume that you agree that neither the Iceland alkenone SST data nor the Newfoundland alkenone SST supports a Hockey Stick No doubt you have ex post rationalizations but on this simple point it would be helpful if you clarify your agreement on this simple point so we can see whether there are any points of agreement to build on Second I presume that you agree that the alkenone SST data indicates substantially warmer mid Holocene East Coast temperatures than 20th century temperatures Again if you wish to argue that this is an expected theoretical outcome and provide references to authors who previously advocated this position I d be happy to consider your references but in the meantime it would be helpful to understand whether there are any points of agreement or whether you are simply indulging in shut eyed denial mpainter Posted Jan 26 2015 at 10 20 AM Permalink Anti phase Nick Do you mean that if SST cools globally that the LC will warm Nicκ Stoκes Posted Jan 23 2015 at 1 26 AM Permalink As high resolution ocean SST data over the past two millennia the new Sicre data is also relevant to the popular two millennium reconstruction period but the new data is about as opposite to a Hockey Stick as one can imagine The whole point of Sicre s paper is that they chose sites that are very sensitive to movements in the Labrador Current These are not only not coordinated with global SST but seem to move in anti phase Their Fig 6 for example emphasises how during the MWP when alkenone SST was high near Iceland it dropped substantially at the NE site and less so at the SE site Their conclusion In contrast the NE Newfoundland record shows that LC circulation is tightly linked to Arctic atmospheric conditions NAM which in turn modulate the advection pathway of cold ice loaded Polar Waters from the Arctic This is illustrated by virtue of a generally enhanced LC during the MCA and an overall weaker LC and likely decreased AMOC during the LIA Lund et al 2006 If this MCA LIA pattern is to be considered analogous to generally warmer colder climates in the subpolar North Atlantic it would suggest the possibility of increasing LC strength in a future warmer climate This would not only imply a colder future climate off eastern Canada IOW recent warming should result in cooler Newfoundland SST Here is Fig 6 from Sicre et al Steven Mosher Posted Jan 23 2015 at 12 54 PM Permalink IOW recent warming should result in cooler Newfoundland SST a quick look at KNMI says guesses folks Steve McIntyre Posted Jan 23 2015 at 1 40 PM Permalink Here is KNMI JJAS HadiSST for 47N 55W Placentia Bay h t Mosher for suggestion Obviously they do not show the cooler Newfoundland SSTs which Stokes reported As too often Stokes appears to have made stuff up rather than checking Steven Mosher Posted Jan 23 2015 at 1 51 PM Permalink IOW recent warming should result in cooler Newfoundland SST except when it doesn t there much better Nicκ Stoκes Posted Jan 23 2015 at 1 31 PM Permalink Steve if global warming causes both warmer and cooler SSTs almost anything can be rationalized ex post I think the point Sicre et al are making is that in the region they have chosen SST is dominated by movements of the Labrador current Global conditions except insofar as they influence that play a lesser role You pointed to remarkable Holocene warmth which far exceeds what is generally observed elsewhere The natural explanation is a shift from LC toward Gulf Stream conditions at that time We know what a difference that can make these ice prone places are south of England There is no doubt in Fig 6 that in the MWP the NE Newf site SST went down when Iceland SST went up Steve I had observed in the post Sachs observed that a relatively small coastward displacement of the Gulf Stream could account for the difference and plausibly speculated that the Gulf Stream hugged the East Coast much more closely in the mid Holocene Stokes says The natural explanation is a shift from LC toward Gulf Stream conditions at that time Once again Stokes has presented a comment already made in the post as his own and by failing to acknowledge the observation in the post implied an error This practice is far too characteristic of his commentary Nor is Stokes theory of a cold MWP in Labrador consistent with other information discussed here It would also surprise Robert Way Steve McIntyre Posted Jan 23 2015 at 2 09 PM Permalink Gifford Miller whose work has been discussed here on several occasions provided convincing evidence of more or less synchronous MWP LIA changes in Baffin Island and Iceland Here we present precisely dated records of ice cap growth from Arctic Canada and Iceland showing that LIA summer cold and ice growth began abruptly between 1275 and 1300 AD followed by a substantial intensification 1430 1455 AD Perhaps Nick s most recent spitball applies only to Placentia Bay Steve McIntyre Posted Jan 26 2015 at 12 13 PM Permalink As high resolution ocean SST data over the past two millennia the new Sicre data is also relevant to the popular two millennium reconstruction period but the new data is about as opposite to a Hockey Stick as one can imagine The whole point of Sicre s paper is that they chose sites that are very sensitive to movements in the Labrador Current These are not only not coordinated with global SST but seem to move in anti phase As too often Nick Stokes is in such a hurry to throw spitballs that he s once again presenting a combination of untrue statements and or look squirrel Stokes says that Sicre et al chose sites that are very sensitive to movements in the Labrador Current This is either an error or a fabrication in respect to the Placentia Bay site used in the main comparison with Sachs et al 2007 Laurentian Fan site While the NE Bonavista Bay site was chosen by Sicre et al to be representative of the Labrador Current the SE Placentia Bay site was not so chosen Sicre et al explicitly stated that the SE site Placentia Bay was in the boundary zone between the Labrador Current and the Gulf Stream This location is somewhat to the north of the Sachs et al 2007 Laurentian Fan site but appears to be in a location that provides information on how the 20th century alkenone SSTs would unfold in this area as shown in the main graphic of this post My interest as I stated explicitly was in comparing 20th century to Holocene data especially as used in Marcott et al 2013 and the comparison of Placentia Bay and GGC26 seemed apt to me and still seems so The location map in my post taken from Sachs et al 2007 shows and emphasizes the boundary zone to the north of the Gulf Stream along the North American East Coast and Gulf of St Lawrence My post had reported Sachs theory of northward movement of the Gulf Stream in the Holocene In previous comments Stokes had ignored this direct statement in the post Nothing in Stokes comments contradicts or rebuts ANY direct statement in my post Stokes asserts that Sicre et al 2014 postulated an antiphase relationship between the NE Bonavista Bay site in the Labrador Current and offshore Iceland Their discussion is based on comparing late medieval values of the Bonavista Bay alkenone SST series with MD99 2275 offshore Iceland alkenone series There is no observable antiphase relationship between the Placentia Bay site and MD99 2275 So to that extent the existence or non existence of an antiphase relationship between Bonavista Bay and MD99 2275 is somewhat of a look squirrel in relation to the comparison of Placentia Bay and GGC26 That s not to say that it s an uninteresting issue I had been planning to write on the offshore Iceland alkenone SST series anyway and will address it but Stokes comment does not contradict anything in the post And for what it s worth though Stokes failed to mention it none of the four cores Laurentian Fan Placentia Bay Bonavista Bay MD99 2275 have Hockey Stick shapes mpainter Posted Jan 23 2015 at 9 10 AM Permalink Steve Interesting post at WUWT yesterday by Willis concerning Argo The post includes sea surface anomaly graphic This graphic shows extraordinary warming anomaly off eastern N Am at about the latitude of the Gulf of St L No one could explain it on that thread mpainter Posted Jan 23 2015 at 9 15 AM Permalink I should have added that there is an cool anomaly to the northeast of this warm anomaly in an extraordinary juxtaposition seen nowhere else on the planet pdtillman Posted Jan 23 2015 at 7 55 PM Permalink Steven Mosher says quoting Nuck Stokes Jan 23 2015 at 1 26 AM IOW recent warming should result in cooler Newfoundland SST except when it doesn t Heh 3 Pay attention Nick R Graf Posted Jan 25 2015 at 9 08 AM Permalink The whole point of Sicre s paper is that they chose sites that are very sensitive to movements in the Labrador Current These are not only not coordinated with global SST but seem to move in anti phase Did Sicre et al make these predictions micro climate created currents prior to his expedition or after he needed to explain his data If there was a prior prediction was it published anywhere If it was then in my mind the highest value of the study was to be able to independently test the validity of the Alkenone s use as an accurate proxy If such tests of the proxy in known micro climates have already been done elsewhere please supply Steve there are hundreds of alkenone measurements Go to http www pangaea de and search alkenone Like any proxy there are puzzles but there is a great deal to recommend them relative to other proxies Sicre is a she Nor did Sicre et al purport to make such a prediction in advance R Graf Posted Jan 25 2015 at 12 38 PM Permalink The point of the study laid out in her application for funding Are such applications a matter of public record If not I would propose they should be No matter how well established the proxy tool I think it behooves the investigator to add to the tools value for all by making a prediction particularly if the expectation is an anomaly in the data R Graf Posted Jan 25 2015 at 1 18 PM Permalink If I was funding I would require a clear point the expedition along with a prediction of findings I would then recruit a competing expedition preferably with different expectations to visit the same locations concurrently thereby ground truthing each s methods along with the consistency of their proxy I would require them both to publish their data at the same hour and compare results Nιck Stοkes Posted Jan 25 2015 at 4 13 PM Permalink Did Sicre et al make these predictions

    Original URL path: http://climateaudit.org/2015/01/21/important-new-north-american-east-coast-proxy-data/ (2016-02-09)
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