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  • Anti-scientists « RealClimate
    of his key points echoed around the usual chambers Ross McKitrick points out that to get the new NOAA sea surface data they added 0 12 C to the buoy readings to make them more like the ship data That magic number came from Kennedy et al 2011 where the uncertainty was reported as wait for it 0 12 1 7 C So where did Ross get that By looking at this table It s a very simple convnional layout Karl et al have looked at thousands of pairings where shaips and buoys have readings made in reasonably close space time proximity The show or global and each ocean the mean difference the SD SE and number in sample But Ross has picked out the SD That is the standard deviation of the samples pairings and multiplied by 2 for good measure The uncertainty of the mean is of course SE the standard error of the mean This was all pointed out by a student But far worse than the bungle was the smokescreen Regarding the SD vs SE question there is no dispute that SE gives the variance of the estimated global mean if the unweighted global mean is what you are interested in What is really at issue is how good an approximation 0 12 is to each site specific adjustment The SD of the pairings used to estimate the bias adjustment has nothing whatever to do with site specific adjustments It has mostly to do with the degree to which the ship and buoy readings matched on those occasions now long past But this cover story persists in the McKitrick adjusted version That quote refers to a paper by Kennedy et al 2011 Table 5 5 which reports a mean bias of 0 12 C However Kennedy et al also note that the estimate estimated bias in each location is very uncertain it is 0 12 1 7 C Also In other words the estimated bias varies quite a bit by region And so the original elementary blunder lives on 8 Eli Rabett says 9 Feb 2016 at 11 49 PM The situation with MM07 is even worse with a series of typical blunders Moreover McKitrick was well aware of the correlation issue even before MM04 was published http rabett blogspot com 2016 02 nigel persaud dons his eyeshade and html 9 Carbomontanus says 10 Feb 2016 at 11 33 AM Benestad I have looked at Ole Humlums treatize on cycles in the history and I know him a bit personally from the monthly Klimapizza meetings in oslo I showed him Urnesdragene to give him better ideas of material cyclings and oscillations waves over waves and cycles over cycles and how to study it Those figures are an Icon for me in Musical acoustics that rather relates to the Helmholz and Herz Bjerknes school of physicas and acoustics And Bohr de Broglie I think Humlum as is obviously also the case of Nicola Scafetta and Richard Lindzen do find cycles and cyclings everywhere but they do not care to examine physical and material causes and possible reality sustainability and experimental reproducability Like I have to when I am to deliver finely regulated higly complex pnevmatic oscillat ors in molecular matter If you are unqualified and unable to do that then you rather have to cheat and to bluff if you also have to earn Unluckily that is where I find them They hardly discriminate between physical coherence phase couppled waves and moovement and corelation that may also occur on chaotic level but that cannot be made or constructed or predicted in any reliable way I Think that is rather near to what you also have found Fourier was a rather Redeemed Harmonical pythagorean who saw natural numeral harmonic swingings everywhere But as proper Pythagoreans we mus also see CHAOS in the Universe and the scientific systems and instruments not just CHOSMOS along with whishful thinking The sea serpent for instance is not a solid state dry matter phaenomena in virtual industrial political reality The Sea Serpent is of rather viscous nature Thus it hardly cycles it rather rumbles and splashes and shows a lot of Wolf im Ton also Just like like we have it in the radio transmitters on the sailships and in the rocket engines and in the orchestra in the musical instruments Fouriers principle and method is quite superbe and eminent as long as you have got to do with fine laminar and dynamic notes There the sublime complex sound figures are in order and fine just like the Urnes Dragons But by tone break and rumble and Wolf im Ton it fails Be aware of that essencial physical difference The Fourier principle is no universally appliciable method It is rather a very clumsy and unpractical theory when it comes to physical Chaos and to unlaminar catastrohic dis continous and irreversible events Fouriers very superbe theory of superposed harmonic oscillation is quite often severely mis used My judgement of Humlum al is that they hardly got the dicipline of looking after and checking possible physical causes also for their found and described forms and unable to discriminate and to look after material coherence or not The next study the consequent higher CO2 in the atmosphere following higher temperatures in the oceans is falsely ascribed to Henrys law by many Allthough Henrys law has no temperature parameter and only rules at constant temperatures What rather rules is Clausius Clappeyrons law of the champagne cooler and the cold cellar beer and the seething of natural water when you heat it up Stated like dP dT etc Because of that you can be certain to find what Humlum al has found if you blind out any other disturbing effect and measure it accurately enough But that real Clausius Clappeyron effect that Humlum al seems to have found is by magnitudes very much smaller than the whole reality as given by the Keeling curve Thus my judgement is

    Original URL path: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2016/02/anti-scientists/ (2016-02-13)
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  • Climate impacts « RealClimate
    twentieth century slowdown in Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation Nature Climate Change vol 5 pp 475 480 2015 http dx doi org 10 1038 nclimate2554 Comments pop up 33 Limiting global warming to 2 C why Victor and Kennel are wrong update Filed under Climate impacts Climate Science Instrumental Record IPCC stefan 1 October 2014 In a comment in Nature titled Ditch the 2 C warming goal political scientist David Victor and retired astrophysicist Charles Kennel advocate just that But their arguments don t hold water It is clear that the opinion article by Victor Kennel is meant to be provocative But even when making allowances for that the arguments which they present are ill informed and simply not supported by the facts The case for limiting global warming to at most 2 C above preindustrial temperatures remains very strong Let s start with an argument that they apparently consider especially important given that they devote a whole section and a graph to it They claim The scientific basis for the 2 C goal is tenuous The planet s average temperature has barely risen in the past 16 years More Comments pop up 71 Nenana Ice Classic Update Filed under Climate impacts Climate Science Instrumental Record gavin 25 April 2014 Somewhat randomly my thoughts turned to the Nenana Ice Classic this evening only to find that the ice break up had only just occurred 3 48 pm Alaskan Standard Time April 25 This is quite early the 7th earliest date regardless of details associated with the vernal equinox or leap year issues though perhaps unsurprising after the warm Alaskan winter this year 8th warmest on record This is in strong contrast to the very late break up last year Break up dates accounting for leap years and variations in the vernal equinox As mentioned in my recent post the Nenana break up date is a good indicator of Alaskan regional temperatures and despite last year s late anomaly the trends are very much towards a earlier spring This is also true for trends in temperatures and ice break up mostly everywhere else too despite individual years like 2013 2014 being anomalously cold for instance in the Great Lakes region As we ve often stressed it is the trends that are important for judging climate change not the individual years Nonetheless odds on dates as early as this years have more than doubled over the last century Comments pop up 29 Older Entries Site Google Custom Search Recent Comments What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Patrick Eriksson What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Kevin McKinney Anti scientists Carbomontanus What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Spencer Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis SteveS What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Chris Colose Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System doiknow What is the best description of the greenhouse effect James Powell Unforced Variations Feb 2016

    Original URL path: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/category/climate-science/climate-impacts/ (2016-02-13)
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  • Scientific practice « RealClimate
    Scientific practice rasmus 6 October 2015 What are the local consequences of a continued global warming And what kind of future climate can you expect for you children Do we expect more extreme events and will a global warming affect the statistics of storms Another question is how the local changes matters for local communities and the ecosystem It may be contrary to most people s impression We have a clearer picture of future climate changes on a global scale than of the local consequences associated with a global warming And we know why More Comments pop up 157 Let s learn from mistakes Filed under Climate Science Scientific practice skeptics rasmus 23 August 2015 The publication Learning from mistakes in climate research is the result of a long winded story with a number of surprises At least to me I have decided to share this story with our readers since it in some aspects is closely linked with RealClimate More Comments pop up 99 AGU 2014 Filed under Climate Science Communicating Climate Scientific practice group 14 December 2014 Once more unto the breach Fall AGU this year will be as last year the largest Earth Science conference on the planet and is where you will get previews of new science results get a sense of what other experts think about current topics and indulge in the more social side of being a scientist More Comments pop up 16 Older Entries Site Google Custom Search Recent Comments What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Patrick Eriksson What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Kevin McKinney Anti scientists Carbomontanus What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Spencer Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis SteveS What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Chris Colose Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System doiknow What is the best description of the greenhouse effect James Powell Unforced Variations Feb 2016 Jim Galasyn What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Jack Barrett With Inline Responses Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis SteveS Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis steve s Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis Andrew Kerber Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System Hank Roberts Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System doiknow Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis MartinM Anti scientists Don McKenzie Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis Matt Skaggs Anti scientists mikeworst New On line Classes and Models Marcus Pages Acronym index Data Sources Categories Climate Science Aerosols Arctic and Antarctic Carbon cycle Climate impacts Climate modelling El Nino Geoengineering Greenhouse gases Hurricanes Instrumental Record IPCC Oceans Paleoclimate Sun earth connections Communicating Climate Reporting on climate skeptics Extras Attic Comment Policy Contributor Bio s FAQ Glossary In the News Reviews Supplemental data Tutorials hydrological cycle Open thread RC

    Original URL path: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/category/scientific-practice/ (2016-02-13)
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  • skeptics « RealClimate
    the Australian government known for its contradictory position on climate change offered the University of Western Australia UWA 4 million to make Lomborg professor which UWA first accepted but then after massive protest from its staff and students refused The Australian government was quick to label it a freedom of speech issue that Lomborg should get a university position and vowed to find another university that would host him However free speech doesn t guarantee everyone a university position there are also academic qualifications required More Comments pop up 205 Let s learn from mistakes Filed under Climate Science Scientific practice skeptics rasmus 23 August 2015 The publication Learning from mistakes in climate research is the result of a long winded story with a number of surprises At least to me I have decided to share this story with our readers since it in some aspects is closely linked with RealClimate More Comments pop up 99 The most popular deceptive climate graph Filed under Climate Science Communicating Climate Instrumental Record skeptics Sun earth connections stefan 8 December 2014 The World Climate Widget from Tony Watts blog is probably the most popular deceptive image among climate skeptics We ll take it under the microscope and show what it would look like when done properly So called climate skeptics deploy an arsenal of misleading graphics with which the human influence on the climate can be down played here are two other examples deconstructed at Realclimate The image below is especially widespread It is displayed on many climate skeptic websites and is regularly updated The World Climate Widget of US climate skeptic Anthony Watts with our explanations added The original can be found on Watts blog What would a more honest display of temperature CO 2 and sunspots look like More Comments pop up 217 Older Entries Site Google Custom Search Recent Comments What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Patrick Eriksson What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Kevin McKinney Anti scientists Carbomontanus What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Spencer Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis SteveS What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Chris Colose Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System doiknow What is the best description of the greenhouse effect James Powell Unforced Variations Feb 2016 Jim Galasyn What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Jack Barrett With Inline Responses Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis SteveS Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis steve s Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis Andrew Kerber Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System Hank Roberts Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System doiknow Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis MartinM Anti scientists Don McKenzie Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis Matt Skaggs Anti scientists mikeworst New On line

    Original URL path: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/category/communicating-climate/skeptics/ (2016-02-13)
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  • statistics « RealClimate
    2013 actually showed that several recent high impact extremes both heat waves and flooding events were associated with high amplitude quasi stationary waves More References J A Francis and S J Vavrus Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid latitudes Geophys Res Lett vol 39 pp n a n a 2012 http dx doi org 10 1029 2012GL051000 E A Barnes Revisiting the evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in midlatitudes Geophys Res Lett vol 40 pp 4734 4739 2013 http dx doi org 10 1002 grl 50880 V Petoukhov S Rahmstorf S Petri and H J Schellnhuber Quasiresonant amplification of planetary waves and recent Northern Hemisphere weather extremes Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences vol 110 pp 5336 5341 2013 http dx doi org 10 1073 pnas 1222000110 Comments pop up 44 The most common fallacy in discussing extreme weather events Update Filed under Climate Science Communicating Climate statistics stefan 25 March 2014 Does global warming make extreme weather events worse Here is the 1 flawed reasoning you will have seen about this question it is the classic confusion between absence of evidence and evidence for absence of an effect of global warming on extreme weather events Sounds complicated It isn t I ll first explain it in simple terms and then give some real life examples The two most fundamental properties of extreme events are that they are rare by definition and highly random These two aspects together with limitations in the data we have make it very hard to demonstrate any significant changes And they make it very easy to find all sorts of statistics that do not show an effect of global warming even if it exists and is quite large Would you have been fooled by this More Comments pop up 59 The global temperature jigsaw Filed under Aerosols Climate modelling Climate Science El Nino Instrumental Record Oceans statistics stefan 17 December 2013 Since 1998 the global temperature has risen more slowly than before Given the many explanations for colder temperatures discussed in the media and scientific literature La Niña heat uptake of the oceans arctic data gap etc one could jokingly ask why no new ice age is here yet This fails to recognize however that the various ingredients are small and not simply additive Here is a small overview and attempt to explain how the different pieces of the puzzle fit together Figure 1 The global near surface temperatures annual values at the top decadal means at the bottom in the three standard data sets HadCRUT4 black NOAA orange and NASA GISS light blue Graph IPCC 2013 More Comments pop up 83 Older Entries Site Google Custom Search Recent Comments What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Patrick Eriksson What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Kevin McKinney Anti scientists Carbomontanus What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Spencer Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis SteveS What is the

    Original URL path: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/category/statistics/ (2016-02-13)
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  • New On-line Classes and Models « RealClimate
    03 AM Tried the hurricane and permafrost models a little I think I need to play with them a lot more before I will understand them Python course needs the on demand mode because last time I started learning it I had to rush off to give information to the Illinois state legislature 8 Dee says 7 Feb 2016 at 11 15 AM I m nearly done with this round of Dr Archer s Coursera course The models are worth trying out If you decide to work with the models I highly recommend watching the videos explaining how to use them I also recommend the course The quizzes can be a bit frustrating at times some of the questions aren t all that clear but the course gets into some depth and really helps pull all the different parts of the subject together At least it does for me Response There s a way to lodge suggestions on question wording or grading People do that and I can go through and edit the questions and gradually the rough edges get smooothed out David 9 Antonio Sarmiento G says 7 Feb 2016 at 1 10 PM Thanks David your effort is really valuable for both teaching and reserach Cheers Antonio 10 Mal Adapted says 7 Feb 2016 at 1 57 PM Kevin Cowtan Python is an excellent choice it s a clean modern and well designed language it s our default choice for teaching students Well I feel old When I was taking programming classes Pascal was the clean modern and well designed language I write a lot of Python myself these days mostly as a replacement for Perl My Python scripts are still pretty much procedurally oriented but I profoundly appreciate all the work other public spirited programmers have done that I can just import In time Python scripts may need only one line from future import completeSolution O brave new world That has such technology in t 8 D Response I learned Python for this class never used it before Yes old David 11 Chris McGrath says 7 Feb 2016 at 4 21 PM Thanks David I always recommend your Global Warming Understanding the Forecast book to my environmental law students I ll add a recommendation for your online lectures Thanks so much for your ongoing and deep commitment to public education 12 Jacques Talbot says 8 Feb 2016 at 5 24 AM David You state that there are no longer any time constraints built into the Coursera system for your course However for me as of to day Coursera says that next session begins feb 22 and only the 6 preview is available Did I miss something Merci Response Yeah I see what you re saying I m not sure I put in a query to my contact at Coursera and will advise It could be that they start a new batch of people every month or something The genius of the Coursera system is to get traffic going in discussion forums so they do want to keep some sort of critical mass going a large enough group of people at the same point in the course But once you re enrolled in the class you can go as fast or slow as you like although there are suggested deadlines to keep you on track with email reminders David 13 pjkar says 8 Feb 2016 at 10 12 AM I took this course 2014 and found it to be an excellent comprehensive overview of the sciece of global warming issues The number cruncher exercises were challenging but provided insight into the modeling of climate science phenomena I continue to use the climate models the course provided to test out scenarios of interest in a back of the envelope kind of way Very insightful These kind of things definitely bring you closer to the science The best thing about this course is that the professor is a dedicated climate scientist and teacher who excells at both I think anyone not a professional in the field but with a hight degree of interest in it as most of us here would find this course to be a very rewarding learning experience I know I did 14 Jacques Talbot says 8 Feb 2016 at 10 32 AM David Thanks for a fast answer Batching makes sense to me Jacques Response I got this from my contact at Coursera The default now is a cohort model new every 4 weeks which groups learners together for a more structured experience to learn with others Although there are deadlines no one is penalized for lateness and they can transfer from one cohort into the next if for any reason they do not complete This is an article in more detail for learners https learner coursera help hc en us articles 206713063 Session Schedules Also please encourage the learners to reach out to the Learner Help Center as that is the best place for them to get questions answered quickly 15 Chris Colose says 8 Feb 2016 at 3 10 PM David Brian Rose at University of Albany has a Python based climlab package that is appropriate for studying N layer greenhouse models among other things like insolation distribution e g plotting latitudinal seasonal changes on orbital timescales basic heat transport concepts etc You may find it useful in the future 16 dominik says 8 Feb 2016 at 6 53 PM Isn t there also at least one python c crosscompiler so you get the best of both worlds 17 richard pauli says 8 Feb 2016 at 10 20 PM Thanks for your excellent paper on why you don t believe in an immanent methane catastrophe I scanned it briefly but it leaves open the question of rapid methane releases that could strongly influence Arctic regional climates If Spikes of methane emission during late deglaciation become somewhat more intense then should rapid increased heating by methane be possible because of too many unknown factors Seeking

    Original URL path: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2016/02/new-on-line-classes-and-models/ (2016-02-13)
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  • Unforced Variations: Feb 2016 « RealClimate
    they have professional science journalists on staff to create a steady flow of articles This site should not compete with that but complement it When something significant even significantly stupid comes out this is where I look for a competent analysis 13 singletrack says 1 Feb 2016 at 10 47 PM In a thread having a preamble suggesting we need more interest I apologize for having only a relatively boring question or cluster of questions Having read a lot about solar radiation at the top of atmosphere I have seen virtually nothing about where exactly that is For the purposes of measuring radiation budget what altitude is considered top of atmosphere realizing it s no doubt somewhat arbitrary in any case Where do measurements of this value come from 14 Hank Roberts says 2 Feb 2016 at 1 51 AM top of atmosphere I m just a reader not a scientist all I did was try your question in oogle Here s one discussion there s no single answer to the question http mynasadata larc nasa gov glossary top of atmosphere Another simple enough answer oogle turns up it s where you can assume that The only quantitatively important energy sources to the whole system are radiative fluxes to and from space TOA top of atmosphere fluxes That s from ATM 623 Climate Modeling Brian E J Rose University at Albany Lecture 1 Planetary energy budget which would be worth looking through as a good introduction to the idea 15 MA Rodger says 2 Feb 2016 at 4 16 AM Spencer has posted for January The interest in the satellite data is what it shows of the El Nino Note this is UAH TLT v6 0beta Spencer is posting The Jan 2016 figure is still below the peak of the 1998 El Nino temperatures and is the 5th warmest on record at 0 54ºC for comparison Jan 2016 is 0 05ºC above Jan 1998 with top spot still held by April 1998 at 0 742ºC The UAH rise continues at a lower pace than 1997 98 Nov to Jan was 0 21ºC which compares with the 1997 98 figure of 0 398ºC While we await to see what RSS will do it does begin to suggest that the temperature measured by the satellites through this El Nino up at 4 000m may not exceed the 1998 values 16 tony lynch says 2 Feb 2016 at 5 02 AM Well something had to be said 17 barry says 2 Feb 2016 at 6 04 AM singletrack 13 I have had the same question for years For the purposes of measuring radiation budget what altitude is considered top of atmosphere TOA Tropopause Outer limit of the exosphere 18 Barton Paul Levenson says 2 Feb 2016 at 6 43 AM Singletrack The Top of Atmosphere is technically at 100 km altitude the Karman Line In practice 99 or more of the mass of the atmosphere is below the stratopause at about 48 km up The Solar constant at TOA averages about 1360 8 W m 2 according to the latest figures Since Earth is a sphere 4 π R 2 as opposed to just π R 2 this means 340 2 W m 2 on average over the whole surface With an albedo somewhere around 0 3 modern estimates range from 0 28 to 0 33 a disappointingly huge set of error bars the climate system absorbs 238 14 W m 2 I ve got too many significant digits here of course corresponding to an emission temperature of 254 6 K 19 zebra says 2 Feb 2016 at 8 01 AM Since comments about off topic comments appear to be on topic let me try to inject a little scientific inquiry into the mix What makes it signal and what makes it noise And what kind of noise is it I can t get the analogy right in my mind but pink red white whatever help would be appreciated Subjectively or eyeballing the graph it strikes me that there is a lot of repetition including actual cut and paste of exactly the same language Also lots of long winded rambling type diatribes containing those repetitions That kind of thing is what I find most off putting not just uninteresting But it s also the kind of thing that could be moderated by a clever algorithm which I don t have the skills to produce but I suspect someone out there does Lacking that something as simple as an upper limit on comments for individuals would probably be beneficial As to whether something is off topic I think the moderators could help by being clearer about this perhaps even by tagging comments as such rather than censoring them We advanced chimps are capable of learning coughbeingconditionedcough that way after all I m also going to point out that some of the questions that are clearly specific to climate science don t get answered maybe they could also be directed by a simple tag to FAQ where appropriate 20 JCH says 2 Feb 2016 at 8 18 AM discussion about the TOA top of the atmoshere As a layperson I think of it as the lowest atmospheric layer at which the only energy leaving from within in my world reflected SW has never been within the earth system is long wave radiation 21 wili says 2 Feb 2016 at 11 20 AM theo 8 for heaven s sake How much clearer could I be that I am not talking about banning people for asking the occasional odd question Reading comprehension much But there needs to be some warning system and then a hard limit on people who get stuck on one off topic topic and use up all the oxygen in the room I do think that it would be a good idea to have a set of alternative sites to point them to if they want to discuss their particular bugbear But often these trolls are already well aware of those alternative sites Tell me what it is in your case that you so desperately and oddly want to discuss and maybe I could find such a site for you 22 wili says 2 Feb 2016 at 12 35 PM New work on the to me anyway interesting possible causal connections between climate change and volcanic activity http phys org news 2016 02 volcanic eruptions ice age caps html Increase in volcanic eruptions at the end of the ice age caused by melting ice caps and erosion much faster warming than cooling can t be caused solely by changes in the Earth s orbit it must be at least to some extent related to something within the Earth system itself Erosion by contributing to unload the Earth s surface and enhance volcanic CO2 emissions may be the missing factor required to explain such persistent climate asymmetry Pietro Sternai et al Deglaciation and glacial erosion a joint control on magma productivity by continental unloading Geophysical Research Letters 2016 DOI 10 1002 2015GL067285 23 Patrick says 2 Feb 2016 at 2 30 PM Ya ll need a Facebook 24 Hank Roberts says 2 Feb 2016 at 6 00 PM Facebook Twit 25 Hank Roberts says 2 Feb 2016 at 6 02 PM Click it that s a link to climatescientists A public list 26 Susan Anderson says 2 Feb 2016 at 10 55 PM Well that s rather sad One of the boringest serial offenders has already held forth above It s not about being wrong it s about being so sure one is right one loses a sense of perspective It isn t necessary to be wrong to be a bore and or overly free with your opinions of others On the whole as a layperson I exercise some care about posting here but I do sometimes find gems and useful information such as the identification of the 300 scientists going after NOAA via the political anti science zoo now in charge of our Congress I m sure I ll be seeing that one around and it is useful to be forewarned We are in a pickle aren t we I m strongly for the climate science from climate scientists idea Circumstances have changed day jobs but the detailed analysis sits in the background for people like myself who exercise their amateurism in hopes of alleviating the ranker forms of wrong For a wonderful bit of advice on how to make a difference I strongly recommend Admiral Titley s commentary advice here https www washingtonpost com news capital weather gang wp 2015 12 14 commentary after the paris pact thoughts on the ted cruz climate change hearing 27 Chris Dudley says 3 Feb 2016 at 9 02 AM It seems to me that climate models do tell us something about planning for future infrastructure Recently anticipated effects on stream flows and temperature were analyzed for power generation http m phys org news 2016 01 worldwide electricity production vulnerable climate html edit new rules 28 richard pauli says 3 Feb 2016 at 9 34 AM Thank you Susan the subject is dynamic and touches everything I get the most interesting links from comments here but yes it requires personal filtering I must pass along a great interview with George Monbiot one of the foremost progressive political thinkers in Britain today Very recent https youtu be X9ViX90ehOQ 1 hour is worth it He writes for the Guardian 29 Ric Merritt says 3 Feb 2016 at 12 51 PM I recommend not getting your knickers in more of a twist than necessary about silly comments that is which may render sterner measures from the moderators unnecessary For example Susan Anderson 26 mentioned a serial offender who already appears in the comments to this post I had to scroll up to see the forgotten comment whose contents I hadn t read the first time scrolling by and didn t read at this second glance either I ve never bothered with more ingeniously managed filtering but I use quick scrolling quite a bit Works for me 30 Magma says 3 Feb 2016 at 2 12 PM For whatever it matters the updated signatory list of the petition supporting Lamar Smith s harassment of NOAA scientists now lists 302 names As before most are retired many are not scientists and few worked in any field relevant to climate 82 of the signers are non Americans working or living outside the U S 58 signers also signed the 2010 petition to the APS about its climate change statement 31 Mal Adapted says 3 Feb 2016 at 2 47 PM I m a regular visitor here and an occasional commenter The contributions of knowledgeable people on climate science issues and context for the science that s being discussed elsewhere are of great value to me and even the UV threads are worth winnowing for those BPL s reply to Singletrack at 18 is an example Where else could I so conveniently ask a question like Singletrack s and get that kind of concise and specific answer Serial bores can be exasperating but I m aware of the timesink heavy moderation would entail for the site maintainers and I m not really bothered by content free comments Like Ric Merritt I don t find it hard to skim over boring exchanges by quick scrolling If other commenters call my attention to something worth noting by a serial bore I can simply scroll back to those comments and respond or not as I feel appropriate If I don t check in with the monthly UV thread for a few days I usually haven t missed much What s the problem 32 Hank Roberts says 3 Feb 2016 at 4 59 PM Barry and Singletrack a more elaborate amateur attempt mostly in hopes of drawing out a real scientist to correct my poetry here top of atmosphere gets defined in various papers because it s not a definite physical target everyone can point to When you read a paper do you find it defined for that paper s purposes It may simply be a known term that s assumed to mean what it means in context TOA would be where a photon headed out toward space isn t likely to encounter a molecule that would absorb it for radiation physics TOA would be where where one molecule heading outward isn t likely to bounce off another molecule for diffusion I d guess TOA would be where when ultraviolet breaks up water molecules there s a good chance the hydrogen will be swept off into outer space instead of recombining chemically with oxygen or something else That s apparently how Venus and Mars lost their water the hydrogen got away escaping at the top of their atmospheres tho for different reasons Venus close to the Sun sunblasted Mars no magnetic field to hold the solar wind at a distance that sort of thing It s where you can assume there s no atmosphere on the outward bound path That has to be an assumption of not enough matter there nothing likely to make an impact on whatever particular question is being looked at 33 MA Rodger says 3 Feb 2016 at 6 44 PM RSS is also posted for January with very similar outcome to UAH The Jan 2016 figure is still below the peak of the 1998 El Nino temperatures and is the 4th UAH 5th warmest monthly anomaly on record at 0 663ºC UAH 0 54ºC This is 0 113ºC UAH 0 05ºC above the equivalent period back then Jan 1998 with the warmest anomaly on record still April 1998 at 0 857ºC UAH 0 742ºC Both satellite records show a slower paced rise than 1997 98 Today s RSS Nov to Jan rise was 0 234ºC UAH 0 21ºC which compares with the 1997 98 figure of 0 392ºC UAH 0 398ºC This does suggest that the temperature measured by the satellites through this El Nino up at 4 000m may struggle to exceed the 1998 values A graph comparing temperature records for the two El Ninos is here usually 2 clicks to download your attachment MEI for January will be posted in a day or so Not graphed there NINO3 4 continues to track a little above 1997 98 with predictions indicating to an El Nino very slightly longer in duration than in 1997 98 when NINO3 4 hit zero at the beginning of June SOI has been having a bit of a rest over recent days 34 Chris Colose says 3 Feb 2016 at 7 10 PM wili 22 We had a two week Volcanoes and Climate summer school out in Iceland back in late summer both Peter Huybers and Charlie Langmuir attended who have advocated feedbacks between volcanic activity and glaciation deglaciation e g here If you asked me whether it was important before this event I would have said no since we usually think of the oceans as dominating the carbon cycle changes on this timescale A lot of the geophysics was new to me but I ve been convinced that volcanic activity does listen to de glacial like changes in ice volume sea level with some nuances about what type of volcanoes you re talking about and that there s good evidence of this in the past Still the CO2 feedback might be on the order of 5 ppm so I still think it is second order when trying to reach carbon cycle closure at the orbital timescale and not big enough to have substantially altered climate 35 Hank Roberts says 3 Feb 2016 at 7 23 PM Hmmmm Is there a statistical geological epidemiologist in the house Is there a worst case for vulcanism triggered by deglaciation If we melt the ice caps say 100x faster than nature did in the past does the geology respond with the events in 1 100th the time That could shake things up Only a few years ago nobody knew about subduction earthquakes or the likelihood and possible magnitude of them nor about remotely triggered earthquakes What other rate of change event surprises may be in store 36 Hank Roberts says 3 Feb 2016 at 7 26 PM Pictures speak louder sometimes they whine or scream from the link I just posted follow it to this map Locations of remotely triggered earthquakes in 1812 1886 wow http pasadena wr usgs gov office hough triggered eqs jpg 37 Killian says 3 Feb 2016 at 10 42 PM Re 29 Ric Merritt said I recommend not getting your knickers in more of a twist than necessary about silly comments that is which may render sterner measures from the moderators unnecessary For example Susan Anderson 26 mentioned a serial offender who already appears in the comments to this post I had to scroll up to see the forgotten comment whose contents I hadn t read the first time scrolling by and didn t read at this second glance either I ve never bothered with more ingeniously managed filtering but I use quick scrolling quite a bit Works for me Someone with a modicum of intelligence and self control Whaddaya know It matters not that you don t like someone Susan The trick is to keep your mouth shut about it because surprise they likely think the same of you Or more likely don t give even the tiniest rats hind end what you think Pointless to even bother Solve problems leave your ego and judgment out of it Simple 38 Robert McLachlan says 4 Feb 2016 at 2 54 AM Does anyone know the status of Richard Seager s theory http www ldeo columbia edu res div ocp gs on the relatively small effect of the Gulf Stream on climate Seems relevant in view of the current influence of AMOC slowdown on the weather on the eastern seaboard and on local sealevel rise 39 B

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  • Open thread « RealClimate
    arise Comments pop up 270 Unforced Variations Nov 2015 Filed under Climate Science Open thread group 2 November 2015 This month s open thread Comments pop up 198 Older Entries Site Google Custom Search Recent Comments What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Patrick Eriksson What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Kevin McKinney Anti scientists Carbomontanus What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Spencer Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis SteveS What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Chris Colose Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System doiknow What is the best description of the greenhouse effect James Powell Unforced Variations Feb 2016 Jim Galasyn What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Jack Barrett With Inline Responses Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis SteveS Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis steve s Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis Andrew Kerber Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System Hank Roberts Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System doiknow Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis MartinM Anti scientists Don McKenzie Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis Matt Skaggs Anti scientists mikeworst New On line Classes and Models Marcus Pages Acronym index Data Sources Categories Climate Science Aerosols Arctic and Antarctic Carbon cycle Climate impacts Climate modelling El Nino Geoengineering Greenhouse gases Hurricanes Instrumental Record IPCC Oceans Paleoclimate Sun earth connections Communicating Climate Reporting on climate skeptics Extras Attic Comment Policy Contributor Bio s FAQ Glossary In the News Reviews Supplemental data Tutorials hydrological cycle Open thread RC Forum Scientific practice statistics The Bore Hole Books Contributors Highlights Dummies

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