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  • March « 2015 « RealClimate
    inspection apparently is an artifact of incomplete and inhomogeneous weather station data More Comments pop up 119 Climate Sensitivity Week Filed under Aerosols Climate modelling Climate Science Greenhouse gases Instrumental Record IPCC Paleoclimate statistics gavin 22 March 2015 Some of you will be aware that there is a workshop on Climate Sensitivity this week at Schloss Ringberg in southern Germany The topics to be covered include how sensitivity is defined and whether it is even meaningful Spoiler yes it is what it means how it can be constrained what the different flavours signify etc There is an impressive list of attendees with a very diverse range of views on just about everything and so I am looking forward to very stimulating discussions More Comments pop up 26 Severe Tropical Cyclone Pam and Climate Change Filed under Climate Science Hurricanes stefan 18 March 2015 Guest post by Kerry Emanuel In the past 16 months two exceptionally intense tropical cyclones Haiyan and Pam have struck the western Pacific with devastating effect Haiyan may have had the highest wind speeds of any tropical cyclone on record but we will never know for sure because we do a poor job estimating the intensity of storms that are not surveyed by aircraft Currently only North Atlantic tropical cyclones are routinely reconnoitered by aircraft and only if they threaten populated regions within a few days Pam s analyzed intensity puts it within 10 knots of the most intense storms on record in the South Pacific but here again this is within the error bars of satellite derived intensity estimates More Comments pop up 62 Unforced variations March 2015 Filed under Climate Science Open thread group 6 March 2015 This month s open thread We ve burned out on mitigation topics again so please focus on climate science issues this month Comments pop up 278 Site Google Custom Search Recent Comments What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Jim Eager What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Patrick Eriksson What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Kevin McKinney Anti scientists Carbomontanus What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Spencer Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis SteveS What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Chris Colose Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System doiknow What is the best description of the greenhouse effect James Powell Unforced Variations Feb 2016 Jim Galasyn With Inline Responses Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis SteveS Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis steve s Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis Andrew Kerber Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System Hank Roberts Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System doiknow Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis MartinM Anti scientists Don McKenzie Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis Matt Skaggs Anti scientists

    Original URL path: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2015/03/ (2016-02-13)
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  • February « 2015 « RealClimate
    to global warming Indeed I have suggested this possibility before But the state of the art climate model simulations analyzed in our current study suggest that this phenomenon is a manifestation of purely random internal oscillations in the climate system This finding has potential ramifications for the climate changes we will see in the decades ahead As we note in the last line of our article Given the pattern of past historical variation this trend will likely reverse with internal variability instead adding to anthropogenic warming in the coming decades That is perhaps the most worrying implication of our study for it implies that the false pause may simply have been a cause for false complacency when it comes to averting dangerous climate change Comments pop up 158 The Soon fallacy Filed under Climate modelling Climate Science Sun earth connections gavin 24 February 2015 As many will have read there were a number of press reports NYT Guardian InsideClimate about the non disclosure of Willie Soon s corporate funding from Southern Company an energy utility Koch Industries etc when publishing results in journals that require such disclosures There are certainly some interesting questions to be asked by the OIG about adherence to the Smithsonian s ethics policies and the propriety of Smithsonian managers accepting soft money with non disclosure clauses attached However a valid question is whether the science that arose from these funds is any good It s certainly conceivable that Soon s work was too radical for standard federal research programs and that these energy companies were really taking a chance on blue sky high risk research that might have the potential to shake things up In such a case someone might be tempted to overlook the ethical lapses and conflicts of interest for the sake of scientific advancement though far too many similar post hoc justifications have been used to excuse horrific unethical practices for this to be remotely defendable Unfortunately the evidence from the emails and the work itself completely undermines that argument because the work and the motivation behind it are based on a scientific fallacy More Comments pop up 56 The mystery of the offset chronologies Tree rings and the volcanic record of the 1st millennium Filed under Aerosols Climate Science Paleoclimate group 19 February 2015 Guest commentary by Jonny McAneney Volcanism can have an important impact on climate When a large volcano erupts it can inject vast amounts of dust and sulphur compounds into the stratosphere where they alter the radiation balance While the suspended dust can temporarily block sunlight the dominant effect in volcanic forcing is the sulphur which combines with water to form sulphuric acid droplets These stratospheric aerosols dramatically change the reflectivity and absorption profile of the upper atmosphere causing the stratosphere to heat and the surface to cool resulting in climatic changes on hemispheric and global scales Interrogating tree rings and ice cores Annually resolved ice core and tree ring chronologies provide opportunities for understanding past volcanic forcing and

    Original URL path: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2015/02/ (2016-02-13)
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  • January « 2015 « RealClimate
    Climate Science Oceans eric 8 January 2015 Guest post by Sarah G Purkey and Gregory C Johnson University of Washington NOAA I solicited this post from colleagues at the University of Washington I found their paper particularly interesting because it gets at the question of sea level rise from a combination of ocean altimetry and density temperature salinity data This kind of measurement and calculation has not really been possible not at this level of detail until quite recently A key finding is that one can reconcile various different estimates of the contributions to observed sea level rise only if the significant warming of the deep ocean is accounted for There was a good write up in The Guardian back when the paper came out Eric Steig Sea leave rise reveals a lot about our changing climate A rise in the mean sea level can be caused by decreases in ocean density mostly reflecting an increase in ocean temperature this is steric sea level rise It can also be caused by an increase in ocean mass reflecting a gain of fresh water from land A third and smaller contribution to mean sea level is from glacial isostatic adjustment The contribution of glacial isostatic adjustment while small has a range of possible values and can be a significant source of uncertainty in sea level budgets Over recent decades very roughly half of the observed mean sea level rise is owing to changes in ocean density with the other half owing to the increased in ocean mass mostly from melting glaciers and polar ice sheets The exact proportion has been difficult to pin down with great certainty More References S G Purkey G C Johnson and D P Chambers Relative contributions of ocean mass and deep steric changes to sea level rise between 1993 and 2013 J Geophys Res Oceans vol 119 pp 7509 7522 2014 http dx doi org 10 1002 2014JC010180 Comments pop up 52 Unforced Variations Jan 2015 Filed under Climate Science Open thread group 7 January 2015 This month s open thread Sorry for the slow start you know what it s like after the holidays Comments pop up 226 Site Google Custom Search Recent Comments What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Jim Eager What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Patrick Eriksson What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Kevin McKinney Anti scientists Carbomontanus What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Spencer Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis SteveS What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Chris Colose Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System doiknow What is the best description of the greenhouse effect James Powell Unforced Variations Feb 2016 Jim Galasyn With Inline Responses Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis SteveS Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis steve s Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis

    Original URL path: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2015/01/ (2016-02-13)
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  • December « 2014 « RealClimate
    landscape for science blogging the public discourse on climate and our own roles in the scientific community have all changed radically over the last 10 years Blogging is no longer something that stands apart from professional communications the mainstream media or new online start ups The diversity of voices online has also increased widely scientists blogging and interacting directly with the public via Twitter and Facebook are much more prevalent than in 2004 The conversations have also changed and for the most part have become more nuanced And a bunch of early career researchers with enthusiasm time to spare and things to say have morphed into institute directors and administrators with lots of new pressures Obviously blogging frequency has decreased in the last year or so in response to these pressures and this raises the question where does RealClimate go now More Comments pop up 42 Ten Years of RealClimate Filed under Climate Science Communicating Climate group 10 December 2014 In the spring of 2004 when we individually first started talking to people about starting a blog on climate science almost everyone thought it was a great idea but very few thought it was something they should get involved in Today scientists communicating on social media is far more commonplace On the occasion of our 10 year anniversary today it is worth reflecting on the impact of those changes what we ve learned and where we go next More Comments pop up 37 Older Entries Site Google Custom Search Recent Comments What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Jim Eager What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Patrick Eriksson What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Kevin McKinney Anti scientists Carbomontanus What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Spencer Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis SteveS What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Chris Colose Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System doiknow What is the best description of the greenhouse effect James Powell Unforced Variations Feb 2016 Jim Galasyn With Inline Responses Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis SteveS Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis steve s Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis Andrew Kerber Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System Hank Roberts Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System doiknow Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis MartinM Anti scientists Don McKenzie Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis Matt Skaggs Anti scientists mikeworst New On line Classes and Models Marcus Pages Acronym index Data Sources Categories Climate Science Aerosols Arctic and Antarctic Carbon cycle Climate impacts Climate modelling El Nino Geoengineering Greenhouse gases Hurricanes Instrumental Record IPCC Oceans Paleoclimate Sun earth connections Communicating Climate Reporting on climate skeptics Extras Attic Comment Policy Contributor Bio s FAQ Glossary In the News Reviews Supplemental data Tutorials hydrological

    Original URL path: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2014/12/ (2016-02-13)
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  • November « 2014 « RealClimate
    is the best description of the greenhouse effect Patrick Eriksson What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Kevin McKinney Anti scientists Carbomontanus What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Spencer Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis SteveS What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Chris Colose Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System doiknow What is the best description of the greenhouse effect James Powell Unforced Variations Feb 2016 Jim Galasyn With Inline Responses Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis SteveS Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis steve s Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis Andrew Kerber Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System Hank Roberts Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System doiknow Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis MartinM Anti scientists Don McKenzie Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis Matt Skaggs Anti scientists mikeworst New On line Classes and Models Marcus Pages Acronym index Data Sources Categories Climate Science Aerosols Arctic and Antarctic Carbon cycle Climate impacts Climate modelling El Nino Geoengineering Greenhouse gases Hurricanes Instrumental Record IPCC Oceans Paleoclimate Sun earth connections Communicating Climate Reporting on climate skeptics Extras Attic Comment Policy Contributor Bio s FAQ Glossary In the News Reviews Supplemental data Tutorials hydrological cycle Open thread RC Forum Scientific practice statistics The Bore Hole Books Contributors Highlights Dummies Guide to the latest Hockey Stick controversy El Nino Global Warming and Anomalous U S Winter Warmth Hurricanes and Global Warming Myth vs Fact Regarding the Hockey Stick On attribution On mismatches between models and observations On Sensitivity Part I Tropical Glacier Retreat Water Vapour feedback or forcing

    Original URL path: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2014/11/ (2016-02-13)
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  • October « 2014 « RealClimate
    glad to see an increased emphasis on this topic The call from WMO WHO goes as follows Guest commentary from Joy Shumake Guillemot CALL FOR CASE STUDIES Climate Services for Health Enhancing Decision Support for Climate Risk Management and Adaptation Climate services for health are an emerging technical field for both the health and climate communities In 2012 WHO and WMO jointly published the Atlas on Climate and Health drawing attention to the key linkages between climate and health and how climate information can be used to understand and manage climate sensitive health risks A new follow up publication of Case Studies on Climate Services for Health is in preparation and will take a next step to outline with greater detail how a wide range of health applications can benefit from using climate and weather information what steps and processes can be used to co develop and use climate and weather information in the health sector and showcase how such partnerships and services can really make a difference to the health community Submission Guidance Deadline October 31 2014 We invite you to share your experiences and call attention to the increasing opportunities to solve health problems with climate service solutions Case studies should highlight existing partnerships and good practices that demonstrate the broad range of possible applications and the value of using climate information to inform health decisions Case studies from across health science and practice are welcomed including examples of climate services for integrated surveillance disease forecasting early warning systems risk mapping health service planning risk communication research evaluation infrastructure siting etc Additionally the publication aims to highlight the full range climate related health issues and risks i e nutrition NCDs air pollution allergens infectious diseases water and sanitation extreme temperatures and weather etc where health decision making can benefit from climate and weather knowledge at historic immediate seasonal or long term time scales Case studies should be short 600 words 2 pages incl images diagrams and references and designed to highlight the added value that climate services have made for managing climate risks to health Please find additional guidance on the structure and four elements to be included at http www gfcs climate org node 579 For questions and submission please contact Dr Joy Shumake Guillemot jshumake guillemot wmo int WHO WMO Climate and Health Office World Meteorological Organization Geneva Switzerland Comments pop up 5 Climate response estimates from Lewis Curry Filed under Climate modelling Climate Science Greenhouse gases Instrumental Record IPCC group 6 October 2014 Guest commentary from Richard Millar U Oxford The recent Lewis and Curry study of climate sensitivity estimated from the transient surface temperature record is being lauded as something of a game changer but how much of a game changer is it really More References N Lewis and J A Curry The implications for climate sensitivity of AR5 forcing and heat uptake estimates Clim Dyn vol 45 pp 1009 1023 2014 http dx doi org 10 1007 s00382 014 2342 y Comments pop

    Original URL path: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2014/10/ (2016-02-13)
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  • September « 2014 « RealClimate
    Bertrand Russell The contrary assumption implies there are no a priori reasons to think any scientific body of work is credible which while consistent is not one that I have ever found anyone professing in practice Far more common is a selective rejection of science dependent on other reasons and that is not a coherent philosophical position at all Analogies do have their place of course usually to demonstrate that a supposedly logical point falls down completely when applied to a different but analogous case For instance an implicit claim that all correct scientific theories are supported by a unanimity of Nobel Prize winners members of the National Academies is easily dismissed by reference to Kary Mullis or Peter Duesberg A claim that CO 2 can t possibly have a significant effect solely because of its small atmospheric mixing ratio can be refuted as a general claim by reference to other substances such as arsenic plutonium or Vitamin C whose large effects due to small concentrations are well known Or if a claim is made that all sciences except climate science are devoid of uncertainty this is refuted by reference to well any other scientific field To be sure I am not criticising the use of metaphor in a more general sense Metaphors that use blankets to explaining how the greenhouse effect works income and spending in your bank account to stand in for the carbon cycle what the wobbles in the Earth s orbit look like if the planet was your head or conceptualizing the geologic timescale by compressing it to a day for instance all serve useful pedagogic roles The crucial difference is that these mappings don t come dripping with over extended value judgements Another justification for the kind of analogy I m objecting to is that it is simply for amusement Of course I m not really comparing my opponents to child molesters food adulterers mass murderers why can t you take a joke However if you need to point out to someone that a joke for adults at least needs to have more substance than just calling someone a poopyhead it is probably not worth the bother It would be nice to have a moratorium on all such analogical arguments though obviously that is unlikely to happen The comment thread here can assess this issue directly but most such arguments on other threads are ruthlessly condemned to the bore hole where indeed many of them already co exist But perhaps we can put some pressure on users of these fallacies by pointing to this post and then refusing to engage further until someone actually has something substantive to offer It may be pointless but we can at least try Comments pop up 210 Unforced variations September 2014 Filed under Climate Science Open thread group 2 September 2014 This month s open thread People could waste time rebunking predictable cherry picked claims about the upcoming Arctic sea ice minimum or perhaps discuss a selection of 10

    Original URL path: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2014/09/ (2016-02-13)
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  • August « 2014 « RealClimate
    Comments pop up 196 How much methane came out of that hole in Siberia Filed under Arctic and Antarctic Carbon cycle Climate Science Greenhouse gases david 13 August 2014 Siberia has explosion holes in it that smell like methane and there are newly found bubbles of methane in the Arctic Ocean As a result journalists are contacting me assuming that the Arctic Methane Apocalypse has begun However as a climate scientist I remain much more concerned about the fossil fuel industry than I am about Arctic methane Short answer It would take about 20 000 000 such eruptions within a few years to generate the standard Arctic Methane Apocalypse that people have been talking about Here s where that statement comes from More Comments pop up 106 Unforced variations Aug 2014 Filed under Climate Science Open thread group 5 August 2014 This month s open thread Keeping track of the Arctic sea ice minimum is interesting but there should be plenty of other climate science topics to discuss if people can get past the hype about the Ebola outbreak or imaginary claims about anomalous thrusting As with last month pleas no discussion of mitigation strategies it unfortunately does not bring out the best in the commentariat Comments pop up 222 Site Google Custom Search Recent Comments What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Jim Eager What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Patrick Eriksson What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Kevin McKinney Anti scientists Carbomontanus What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Spencer Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis SteveS What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Chris Colose Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System doiknow What is the best description of the greenhouse effect James Powell Unforced Variations Feb 2016 Jim Galasyn With Inline Responses Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis SteveS Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis steve s Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis Andrew Kerber Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System Hank Roberts Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System doiknow Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis MartinM Anti scientists Don McKenzie Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis Matt Skaggs Anti scientists mikeworst New On line Classes and Models Marcus Pages Acronym index Data Sources Categories Climate Science Aerosols Arctic and Antarctic Carbon cycle Climate impacts Climate modelling El Nino Geoengineering Greenhouse gases Hurricanes Instrumental Record IPCC Oceans Paleoclimate Sun earth connections Communicating Climate Reporting on climate skeptics Extras Attic Comment Policy Contributor Bio s FAQ Glossary In the News Reviews Supplemental data Tutorials hydrological cycle Open thread RC Forum Scientific practice statistics The Bore Hole Books Contributors Highlights Dummies Guide to the latest Hockey Stick controversy El Nino Global Warming and Anomalous U S Winter Warmth Hurricanes and Global

    Original URL path: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2014/08/ (2016-02-13)
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