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  • July « 2014 « RealClimate
    holdings and monthly holdings Every candidate station read in is compared to all target stations and one of three possible decisions is made First when a station match is found the candidate station is merged with the target station Second if the candidate station is determined to be unique it is added to the target dataset as a new station Third the available information is insufficient conflicting or ambiguous and the candidate station is withheld Stations are first compared through their metadata to identify matching stations Four tests are applied geographic distance height distance station name similarity and when the data record began Non missing metrics are then combined to create a metadata metric and it is determined whether to move on to data comparisons or to withhold the candidate station If a data comparison is deemed necessary overlapping data between the target and candidate station is tested for goodness of fit using the Index of Agreement IA At least five years of overlap are required for a comparison to be made A lookup table is used to provide two data metrics the probability of station match H1 and the probability of station uniqueness H2 These are then combined with the metadata metric to create posterior metrics of station match and uniqueness These are used to determine if the station is merged added as unique or withheld Stage Three Dataset Description The integrated data holding recommended and endorsed by ISTI contains over 32 000 global stations Figure 2 over four times as many stations as GHCN M version 3 Although station coverage varies spatially and temporally there are adequate stations with decadal and century periods of record at local regional and global scales Since 1850 there consistently are more stations in the recommended merge than GHCN M Figure 3 In GHCN M version 3 there was a significant drop in stations in 1990 reflecting the dependency on the decadal World Weather Records collection as a source which is ameliorated by many of the new sources which can be updated much more rapidly and will enable better real time monitoring Many thresholds are used in the merge and can be set by the user before running the merge program Changing these thresholds can significantly alter the overall result of the program Changes will also occur when the source priority hierarchy is altered In order to characterize the uncertainty associated with the merge parameters seven different variants of the Stage Three product were developed alongside the recommended merge This uncertainty reflects the importance of data rescue While a major effort has been undertaken through this initiative more can be done to include areas that are lacking on both spatial and temporal scales or lacking maximum and minimum temperature data Data Access Version 1 0 0 of the Global Land Surface Databank has been released and data are provided from a primary ftp site hosted by the Global Observing Systems Information Center GOSIC and World Data Center A at NOAA NCDC The Stage

    Original URL path: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2014/07/ (2016-02-13)
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  • June « 2014 « RealClimate
    Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis SteveS Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis steve s Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis Andrew Kerber Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System Hank Roberts Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System doiknow Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis MartinM Anti scientists Don McKenzie Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis Matt Skaggs Anti scientists mikeworst New On line Classes and Models Marcus Pages Acronym index Data Sources Categories Climate Science Aerosols Arctic and Antarctic Carbon cycle Climate impacts Climate modelling El Nino Geoengineering Greenhouse gases Hurricanes Instrumental Record IPCC Oceans Paleoclimate Sun earth connections Communicating Climate Reporting on climate skeptics Extras Attic Comment Policy Contributor Bio s FAQ Glossary In the News Reviews Supplemental data Tutorials hydrological cycle Open thread RC Forum Scientific practice statistics The Bore Hole Books Contributors Highlights Dummies Guide to the latest Hockey Stick controversy El Nino Global Warming and Anomalous U S Winter Warmth Hurricanes and Global Warming Myth vs Fact Regarding the Hockey Stick On attribution On mismatches between models and observations On Sensitivity Part I Tropical Glacier Retreat Water Vapour feedback or forcing Welcome to RealClimate Other Opinions A Few Things Ill Considered Accuweather Climate Blog And Then There s Physics Andrew Dessler Brave New Climate C2ES Christian Science Monitor Climate Change Education Climate Communication Climate Matters Columbia Climate Science Watch ClimateArk ClimateConservative Org Climatedenial org ClimatePhys ClimateProgress ClimateSight Cntr for Enviro Journalism Deep Climate Deltoid deSmogBlog DotEarth Earth Discovery Channel Ecologically Orientated Effets de Terre FR George Monbiot globalchange Grist Climate and Energy Horatio Algeranon Hot Topic HotWhopper James Empty Blog Jeff Masters Wunder Blog John Fleck Kate has

    Original URL path: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2014/06/ (2016-02-13)
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  • May « 2014 « RealClimate
    range of possibilities implied by some models allude to such an outcome but at this point the uncertainty is just too high While subsurface heat content levels are well above average March was the highest for that month since 1979 and April was the second highest ENSO prediction relies on many other variables and factors We also remain in the spring prediction barrier which is a more uncertain time to be making ENSO predictions Could El Niño predictions fizzle Yes there is roughly a 2 in 10 chance at this point that this could happen It happened in 2012 when an El Nino Watch was issued chances became as high as 75 and El Niño never formed Such is the nature of seasonal climate forecasting when there is enough forecast uncertainty that busts can and do occur In fact more strictly if the forecast probabilities are reliable an event with an 80 chance of occurring should only occur 80 of the time over a long historical record Therefore 20 of the time the event must NOT occur click here for a description of verification techniques While folks might prefer total certainty in our forecasts we live in an uncertain world El Niño is most likely to occur this year so please stay attentive to the various updates linked above and please visit our brand new ENSO blog Comments pop up 68 Unforced variations May 2014 Filed under Climate Science Open thread group 2 May 2014 This month s open thread In order to give everyone a break no discussion of mitigation options this month that has been done to death in previous threads Anything related to climate science is totally fine Carbon dioxide levels maybe or TED talks perhaps Comments pop up 394 Site Google Custom Search Recent Comments What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Jim Eager What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Patrick Eriksson What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Kevin McKinney Anti scientists Carbomontanus What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Spencer Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis SteveS What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Chris Colose Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System doiknow What is the best description of the greenhouse effect James Powell Unforced Variations Feb 2016 Jim Galasyn With Inline Responses Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis SteveS Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis steve s Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis Andrew Kerber Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System Hank Roberts Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System doiknow Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis MartinM Anti scientists Don McKenzie Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis Matt Skaggs Anti scientists mikeworst New On line Classes and Models Marcus Pages Acronym index Data Sources Categories Climate

    Original URL path: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2014/05/ (2016-02-13)
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  • April « 2014 « RealClimate
    economic growth and to a lesser extent to population growth To achieve climate protection fossil power generation without CCS has to be phased out almost entirely by the end of the century The mitigation of climate change constitutes a major technological and institutional challenge But It does not cost the world to save the planet This is how the new report was summarized by Ottmar Edenhofer Co Chair of Working Group III of the IPCC whose report was adopted on 12 April 2014 in Berlin after intense debates with governments The report consists of 16 chapters with more than 2000 pages It was written by 235 authors from 58 countries and reviewed externally by 900 experts Most prominent in public is the 33 page Summary for Policymakers SPM that was approved by all 193 countries At a first glance the above summary does not sound spectacular but more like a truism that we ve often heard over the years But this report indeed has something new to offer The 2 degree limit More Comments pop up 178 Shindell On constraining the Transient Climate Response Filed under Climate modelling Climate Science Instrumental Record group 8 April 2014 Guest commentary from Drew Shindell There has been a lot of discussion of my recent paper in Nature Climate Change Shindell 2014 That study addressed a puzzle namely that recent studies using the observed changes in Earth s surface temperature suggested climate sensitivity is likely towards the lower end of the estimated range However studies evaluating model performance on key observed processes and paleoclimate evidence suggest that the higher end of sensitivity is more likely partially conflicting with the studies based on the recent transient observed warming The new study shows that climate sensitivity to historical changes in the abundance of aerosol particles in the atmosphere is larger than the sensitivity to CO 2 primarily because the aerosols are largely located near industrialized areas in the Northern Hemisphere middle and high latitudes where they trigger more rapid land responses and strong snow ice feedbacks Therefore studies based on observed warming have underestimated climate sensitivity as they did not account for the greater response to aerosol forcing and multiple lines of evidence are now consistent in showing that climate sensitivity is in fact very unlikely to be at the low end of the range in recent estimates More References D T Shindell Inhomogeneous forcing and transient climate sensitivity Nature Climate Change vol 4 pp 274 277 2014 http dx doi org 10 1038 nclimate2136 Comments pop up 39 Older Entries Site Google Custom Search Recent Comments What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Jim Eager What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Patrick Eriksson What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Kevin McKinney Anti scientists Carbomontanus What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Spencer Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis SteveS What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Chris Colose Blizzard

    Original URL path: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2014/04/ (2016-02-13)
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  • March « 2014 « RealClimate
    ocean contains about half of the carbon we ve ever released from fossil fuels We ve also cut down a lot of trees which has been more or less compensated for by uptake into other parts of the land biosphere So as a fraction of our total carbon footprint fuels trees the oceans contain about a third At any rate the oceans are acting as a CO 2 buffer meaning that it s absorbing CO 2 as it tries to limit the change to the atmospheric concentration If we suddenly pulled atmospheric CO 2 back down to 280 ppm by putting it all in cans of soda perhaps the oceans would work in the opposite direction to buffer our present day higher concentration by giving up CO 2 The land biosphere is kind of a loose cannon in the carbon cycle hard to predict what it will do Ten layers of soda cans covering the whole earth sounds like a lot But most of a soda can is soda rather than CO 2 Here s another statistic If the CO 2 in the atmosphere were to freeze out as dry ice depositing on the ground the dry ice layer would only be about 7 millimeters thick I guess cans of soda pop might not be the most efficient or economical means of CO 2 sequestration For a better option look to saline aquifers which are porous geological formations containing salty water that no one would want to drink or irrigate with anyway CO 2 at high pressure forms a liquid then ultimately reacts with igneous rocks to form CaCO 3 Further Reading Tans Pieter An accounting of the observed increase in oceanic and atmospheric CO2 and an outlook for the Future Oceanography 22 4 26 35 2009 Carbon dioxide capture and storage IPCC Report 2005 Comments pop up 23 Can we make better graphs of global temperature history Filed under Climate Science Communicating Climate Instrumental Record Paleoclimate gavin 13 March 2014 I m writing this post to see if our audience can help out with a challenge Can we collectively produce some coherent properly referenced open source scalable graphics of global temperature history that will be accessible and clear enough that we can effectively out compete the myriad inaccurate and misleading pictures that continually do the rounds on social media More Comments pop up 123 Older Entries Site Google Custom Search Recent Comments What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Jim Eager What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Patrick Eriksson What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Kevin McKinney Anti scientists Carbomontanus What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Spencer Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis SteveS What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Chris Colose Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System doiknow What is the best description of the greenhouse effect James Powell Unforced Variations Feb 2016 Jim Galasyn With

    Original URL path: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2014/03/ (2016-02-13)
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  • February « 2014 « RealClimate
    signal not the noise Yet despite these basics of climate physics any slowdown in the overall temperature trend sees lobby groups falsely claim that global warming is over Never mind that the globe our planet spans the oceans atmosphere land and ice systems in their entirety This was one of the motivations for our study out this week in Nature Climate Change England et al 2014 With the global average surface air temperature SAT more or less steady since 2001 scientists have been seeking to explain the climate mechanics of the slowdown in warming seen in the observations during 2001 2013 One simple way to address this is to examine what is different about the recent decade compared to the preceding decade when the global mean SAT metric accelerated This can be quantified via decade mean differences or via multi decadal trends which are roughly equivalent if the trends are more or less linear or if the focus is on the low frequency changes More References G Foster and S Rahmstorf Global temperature evolution 1979 2010 Environ Res Lett vol 6 pp 044022 2011 http dx doi org 10 1088 1748 9326 6 4 044022 M A Balmaseda K E Trenberth and E Källén Distinctive climate signals in reanalysis of global ocean heat content Geophys Res Lett vol 40 pp 1754 1759 2013 http dx doi org 10 1002 grl 50382 M H England S McGregor P Spence G A Meehl A Timmermann W Cai A S Gupta M J McPhaden A Purich and A Santoso Recent intensification of wind driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus Nature Climate Change vol 4 pp 222 227 2014 http dx doi org 10 1038 nclimate2106 Comments pop up 95 Unforced variations Feb 2014 Filed under Climate Science Open thread group 4 February 2014 A little late starting this month s open thread must be the weather Comments pop up 435 Exploring CRUTEM4 with Google Earth Filed under Climate Science Instrumental Record group 4 February 2014 Guest commentary by Tim Osborn and Phil Jones The Climatic Research Unit CRU land surface air temperature data set CRUTEM4 can now be explored using Google Earth Access is via this portal together with instructions for using it though it is quite intuitive More Comments pop up 13 New climate science MOOCs Filed under Climate modelling Climate Science Communicating Climate gavin 1 February 2014 Along with David s online class a number of new climate science Massive Online Open Courses MOOCs are now coming online More Comments pop up 28 Site Google Custom Search Recent Comments What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Jim Eager What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Patrick Eriksson What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Kevin McKinney Anti scientists Carbomontanus What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Spencer Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis SteveS What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Chris Colose

    Original URL path: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2014/02/ (2016-02-13)
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  • January « 2014 « RealClimate
    time last year we gave an overview of what different methods of assessing climate sensitivity were giving in the most recent analyses We discussed the three general methods that can be used The first is to focus on a time in the past when the climate was different and in quasi equilibrium and estimate the relationship between the relevant forcings and temperature response paleo constraints The second is to find a metric in the present day climate that we think is coupled to the sensitivity and for which we have some empirical data climatological constraints Finally there are constraints based on changes in forcing and response over the recent past transient constraints All three constraints need to be reconciled to get a robust idea what the sensitivity really is A new paper using the second climatological approach by Steve Sherwood and colleagues was just published in Nature and like Fasullo and Trenberth 2012 discussed here suggests that models with an equilibrium climate sensitivity ECS of less than 3ºC do much worse at fitting the observations than other models More References S C Sherwood S Bony and J Dufresne Spread in model climate sensitivity traced to atmospheric convective mixing Nature vol 505 pp 37 42 2014 http dx doi org 10 1038 nature12829 J T Fasullo and K E Trenberth A Less Cloudy Future The Role of Subtropical Subsidence in Climate Sensitivity Science vol 338 pp 792 794 2012 http dx doi org 10 1126 science 1227465 Comments pop up 101 Unforced Variations Jan 2014 Filed under Climate Science Open thread group 2 January 2014 First open thread of the new year A time for best of s of climate science last year and previews for the this year perhaps We will have an assessment of the updates to annual indices and model data comparisons later in the month Comments pop up 662 Site Google Custom Search Recent Comments What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Jim Eager What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Patrick Eriksson What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Kevin McKinney Anti scientists Carbomontanus What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Spencer Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis SteveS What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Chris Colose Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System doiknow What is the best description of the greenhouse effect James Powell Unforced Variations Feb 2016 Jim Galasyn With Inline Responses Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis SteveS Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis steve s Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis Andrew Kerber Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System Hank Roberts Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System doiknow Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis MartinM Anti scientists Don McKenzie Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis

    Original URL path: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2014/01/ (2016-02-13)
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  • December « 2013 « RealClimate
    Elsner on tornado connections to climate change Tues 2 40pm David Grinspoon the Sagan lecture Thurs 9am and Bill Ruddiman Thursday 2 40pm Some full sessions will also be livestreamed for instance The future of IPCC session Tues 10 20am 12 30pm and the Climate Literacy sessions Tues 4 00pm 6 00pm Wed 8am 12 30pm For attendees there are a number of events close to our hearts A bloggers forum for discussion on science blogging Mon 5pm the Open Mic night hosted by Richard Alley Mon 7 30pm at Jillian s Restaurant and the AGU 5k run on Wednesday morning 6 30am Also AGU and the Climate Science Legal Defense Fund have organised a facility for individual consultations with a lawyer by appointment via lawyer climatesciencedefensefund org for people either who have found themselves involved in legal proceedings associated with their science or people who are just interested in what they might need to be prepared for There is a brown bag lunch session on Friday 12 30pm PST for a more informal discussion of relevant issues There are obviously many individual presentations that will be of interest but too many to list here Feel free to add suggestions in the comments and look out for updates all next week Comments pop up 24 A failure in communicating the impact of new findings Filed under Climate Science Communicating Climate IPCC Reporting on climate rasmus 6 December 2013 I was disappointed by the recent summary for policymakers SPM of the intergovernmental panel on climate change IPCC assessment report 5 now that I finally got around to read it Not so much because of the science but because the way it presented the science The report was written by top scientists so what went wrong More Comments pop up 214 Unforced Variations Dec 2013 Filed under Climate Science Open thread group 1 December 2013 This month s open thread It s coming to the end of the year and that means updates to the annual time series of observations and models relatively soon Suggestions for what you d like to see assessed are welcome or any other climate science related topic Comments pop up 354 Site Google Custom Search Recent Comments What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Jim Eager What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Patrick Eriksson What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Kevin McKinney Anti scientists Carbomontanus What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Spencer Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis SteveS What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Chris Colose Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System doiknow What is the best description of the greenhouse effect James Powell Unforced Variations Feb 2016 Jim Galasyn With Inline Responses Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis SteveS Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis steve s Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to

    Original URL path: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2013/12/ (2016-02-13)
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