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  • October « 2013 « RealClimate
    than traditional 45 minute lectures from a classroom It s based on and will show you how to play with all new on line computer models including extensive new browsing systems for global climate records and model results from the new AR5 climate model archive an ice sheet model you can clobber with slugs of CO 2 as it evolves and more Come and watch the train wreck join the fun More Comments pop up 21 The IPCC AR5 attribution statement Filed under Climate modelling Climate Science Instrumental Record IPCC gavin 10 October 2013 Last year I discussed the basis of the AR4 attribution statement Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid 20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations In the new AR5 SPM pdf there is an analogous statement It is extremely likely that more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together The best estimate of the human induced contribution to warming is similar to the observed warming over this period This includes differences in the likelihood statement drivers and a new statement on the most likely amount of anthropogenic warming More Comments pop up 73 Climate Change on Film Filed under Climate Science stefan 8 October 2013 Making a film about climate change is difficult especially if you want it to reach a wide audience One problem is the long time scale of climate change which fits badly with the time scale of a typical film narrative That was the reason why in the Hollywood blockbuster The Day After Tomorrow some laws of physics were treated with a certain artistic freedom in order to present a dramatic climate change within a few weeks instead of decades Mike and I have spent the last few days at a very interesting workshop in Iceland where climate scientists social scientists and filmmakers were brought together in conjunction with the Reykjavik International Film Festival I will make no attempt to reproduce the many exciting discussions which we had that often continued into the night Instead I d like to present two short films by workshop participants I chose a contrast of hot and cold First the cold The following film is a trailer by Phil Coates a British filmmaker and expedition leader who has filmed in extreme conditions on all seven continents It is a work in progress under the working title North Pole Living on Thin Ice Coates was dropped off with three scientists on the sea ice near the North Pole On foot out on the Arctic Ocean they made oceanographic and ice thickness measurements Soon you will be able to experience this research expedition on film The scientific findings of the team will of course come out in the scientific literature More Comments pop up 26 Older Entries Site Google Custom Search Recent

    Original URL path: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2013/10/ (2016-02-13)
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  • September « 2013 « RealClimate
    a group of researchers from Harvard and Oregon State University has published the first global temperature reconstruction for the last 11 000 years that s the whole Holocene Marcott et al 2013 The results are striking and worthy of further discussion after the authors have already commented on their results in this blog More Comments pop up 66 On mismatches between models and observations Filed under Climate modelling Climate Science Instrumental Record gavin 13 September 2013 It is a truism that all models are wrong Just as no map can capture the real landscape and no portrait the true self numerical models by necessity have to contain approximations to the complexity of the real world and so can never be perfect replications of reality Similarly any specific observations are only partial reflections of what is actually happening and have multiple sources of error It is therefore to be expected that there will be discrepancies between models and observations However why these arise and what one should conclude from them are interesting and more subtle than most people realise Indeed such discrepancies are the classic way we learn something new and it often isn t what people first thought of More Comments pop up 167 Unforced variations Sept 2013 Filed under Climate Science Open thread group 2 September 2013 This month s open thread Expect pre IPCC report discussion SPM due on Sep 27 full report pre copy editing Sep 30th analysis of this years Arctic ice cover minimum and a host of the usual distractions Comments pop up 296 Site Google Custom Search Recent Comments What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Jim Eager What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Patrick Eriksson What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Kevin McKinney Anti scientists Carbomontanus What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Spencer Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis SteveS What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Chris Colose Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System doiknow What is the best description of the greenhouse effect James Powell Unforced Variations Feb 2016 Jim Galasyn With Inline Responses Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis SteveS Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis steve s Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis Andrew Kerber Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System Hank Roberts Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System doiknow Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis MartinM Anti scientists Don McKenzie Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis Matt Skaggs Anti scientists mikeworst New On line Classes and Models Marcus Pages Acronym index Data Sources Categories Climate Science Aerosols Arctic and Antarctic Carbon cycle Climate impacts Climate modelling El Nino Geoengineering Greenhouse gases Hurricanes Instrumental Record IPCC Oceans Paleoclimate Sun earth connections Communicating Climate Reporting on climate skeptics Extras Attic Comment

    Original URL path: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2013/09/ (2016-02-13)
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  • August « 2013 « RealClimate
    III Response to Nic Lewis SteveS What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Chris Colose Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System doiknow What is the best description of the greenhouse effect James Powell Unforced Variations Feb 2016 Jim Galasyn With Inline Responses Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis SteveS Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis steve s Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis Andrew Kerber Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System Hank Roberts Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System doiknow Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis MartinM Anti scientists Don McKenzie Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis Matt Skaggs Anti scientists mikeworst New On line Classes and Models Marcus Pages Acronym index Data Sources Categories Climate Science Aerosols Arctic and Antarctic Carbon cycle Climate impacts Climate modelling El Nino Geoengineering Greenhouse gases Hurricanes Instrumental Record IPCC Oceans Paleoclimate Sun earth connections Communicating Climate Reporting on climate skeptics Extras Attic Comment Policy Contributor Bio s FAQ Glossary In the News Reviews Supplemental data Tutorials hydrological cycle Open thread RC Forum Scientific practice statistics The Bore Hole Books Contributors Highlights Dummies Guide to the latest Hockey Stick controversy El Nino Global Warming and Anomalous U S Winter Warmth Hurricanes and Global Warming Myth vs Fact Regarding the Hockey Stick On attribution On mismatches between models and observations On Sensitivity Part I Tropical Glacier Retreat Water Vapour feedback or forcing Welcome to RealClimate Other Opinions A Few Things Ill Considered Accuweather Climate Blog And Then There s Physics Andrew Dessler Brave New Climate C2ES Christian Science Monitor Climate Change Education Climate Communication Climate Matters Columbia Climate Science Watch ClimateArk

    Original URL path: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2013/08/ (2016-02-13)
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  • July « 2013 « RealClimate
    chime in with your suggestions as well as discussing the latest climate science issues Comments pop up 350 Site Google Custom Search Recent Comments What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Jim Eager What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Patrick Eriksson What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Kevin McKinney Anti scientists Carbomontanus What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Spencer Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis SteveS What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Chris Colose Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System doiknow What is the best description of the greenhouse effect James Powell Unforced Variations Feb 2016 Jim Galasyn With Inline Responses Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis SteveS Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis steve s Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis Andrew Kerber Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System Hank Roberts Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System doiknow Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis MartinM Anti scientists Don McKenzie Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis Matt Skaggs Anti scientists mikeworst New On line Classes and Models Marcus Pages Acronym index Data Sources Categories Climate Science Aerosols Arctic and Antarctic Carbon cycle Climate impacts Climate modelling El Nino Geoengineering Greenhouse gases Hurricanes Instrumental Record IPCC Oceans Paleoclimate Sun earth connections Communicating Climate Reporting on climate skeptics Extras Attic Comment Policy Contributor Bio s FAQ Glossary In the News Reviews Supplemental data Tutorials hydrological cycle Open thread RC Forum Scientific practice statistics The Bore Hole Books Contributors Highlights Dummies Guide to the latest Hockey Stick controversy El Nino Global Warming and

    Original URL path: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2013/07/ (2016-02-13)
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  • June « 2013 « RealClimate
    or sub sets of data If independent sets of data perhaps trees with different mean growth rates or from different sites show similar variations then we can have greater confidence that those variations are linked to real variations in climate In a new QSR paper Briffa et al 2013 BEA13 we have used these approaches to re assess the combined tree ring evidence from the Yamal and Polar Urals region Yamalia of northern Siberia considering the common signal in tree growth changes at different sites and in subsets of data defined in other ways Together with our Russian colleagues and co authors we have incorporated many new tree ring data to increase the replication and to update the chronology to 2005 and have reassessed the inferences about summer temperature change that can be drawn from these data The paper is published as an open access paper no paywall and supplementary information including the raw tree ring and instrumental temperature data are available from our website More References K R Briffa T M Melvin T J Osborn R M Hantemirov A V Kirdyanov V S Mazepa S G Shiyatov and J Esper Reassessing the evidence for tree growth and inferred temperature change during the Common Era in Yamalia northwest Siberia Quaternary Science Reviews vol 72 pp 83 107 2013 http dx doi org 10 1016 j quascirev 2013 04 008 Comments pop up 111 Unforced Variations June 2013 Filed under Climate Science Open thread group 1 June 2013 June s open thread Comments pop up 389 Site Google Custom Search Recent Comments What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Jim Eager What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Patrick Eriksson What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Kevin McKinney Anti scientists Carbomontanus What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Spencer Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis SteveS What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Chris Colose Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System doiknow What is the best description of the greenhouse effect James Powell Unforced Variations Feb 2016 Jim Galasyn With Inline Responses Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis SteveS Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis steve s Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis Andrew Kerber Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System Hank Roberts Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System doiknow Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis MartinM Anti scientists Don McKenzie Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis Matt Skaggs Anti scientists mikeworst New On line Classes and Models Marcus Pages Acronym index Data Sources Categories Climate Science Aerosols Arctic and Antarctic Carbon cycle Climate impacts Climate modelling El Nino Geoengineering Greenhouse gases Hurricanes Instrumental Record IPCC Oceans Paleoclimate Sun earth connections Communicating Climate Reporting on climate skeptics Extras Attic Comment Policy Contributor Bio s

    Original URL path: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2013/06/ (2016-02-13)
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  • May « 2013 « RealClimate
    Comments pop up 551 Site Google Custom Search Recent Comments What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Jim Eager What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Patrick Eriksson What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Kevin McKinney Anti scientists Carbomontanus What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Spencer Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis SteveS What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Chris Colose Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System doiknow What is the best description of the greenhouse effect James Powell Unforced Variations Feb 2016 Jim Galasyn With Inline Responses Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis SteveS Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis steve s Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis Andrew Kerber Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System Hank Roberts Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System doiknow Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis MartinM Anti scientists Don McKenzie Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis Matt Skaggs Anti scientists mikeworst New On line Classes and Models Marcus Pages Acronym index Data Sources Categories Climate Science Aerosols Arctic and Antarctic Carbon cycle Climate impacts Climate modelling El Nino Geoengineering Greenhouse gases Hurricanes Instrumental Record IPCC Oceans Paleoclimate Sun earth connections Communicating Climate Reporting on climate skeptics Extras Attic Comment Policy Contributor Bio s FAQ Glossary In the News Reviews Supplemental data Tutorials hydrological cycle Open thread RC Forum Scientific practice statistics The Bore Hole Books Contributors Highlights Dummies Guide to the latest Hockey Stick controversy El Nino Global Warming and Anomalous U S Winter Warmth Hurricanes and Global Warming Myth vs Fact Regarding the

    Original URL path: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2013/05/ (2016-02-13)
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  • April « 2013 « RealClimate
    Filed under Arctic and Antarctic Climate impacts Climate modelling Climate Science El Nino In the News Instrumental Record Oceans Paleoclimate eric 17 April 2013 Eric Steig It is well known that ice shelves on the Antarctic Peninsula have collapsed on several occasions in the last couple of decades that ice shelves in West Antarctica are thinning rapidly and that the large outlet glaciers that drain the West Antarctic ice sheet WAIS are accelerating The rapid drainage of the WAIS into the ocean is a major contributor to sea level rise around 10 of the total at the moment All of these observations match the response predicted in the late 1970s by glaciologist John Mercer of the Antarctic to anthropogenic global warming As such they are frequently taken as harbingers of greater future sea level rise to come Are they Two papers published this week in Nature Geoscience provide new information that helps to address this question One of the studies led by me says probably while another Abram et al gives a more definitive yes More Comments pop up 49 Verification of regional model trends Filed under Climate Science rasmus 15 April 2013 Guest post by Geert Jan van Oldenborgh Francisco Doblas Reyes Sybren Drijfhout and Ed Hawkins Climate information for the future is usually presented in the form of scenarios plausible and consistent descriptions of future climate without probability information This suffices for many purposes but for the near term say up to 2050 scenarios of emissions of greenhouse gases do not diverge much and we could work towards climate forecasts calibrated probability distributions of the climate in the future This would be a logical extension of the weather seasonal and decadal forecasts in existence or being developed Palmer BAMS 2008 In these fields a fundamental forecast property is reliability when the forecast probability of rain tomorrow is 60 it should rain on 60 of all days with such a forecast This is routinely checked before a new model version is introduced a period in the past is re forecast and it is verified that this indeed holds In seasonal forecasting a reliable forecast is often constructed on the basis of a multi model ensemble as forecast systems tend to be overconfident they underestimate the actual uncertainties More References T N Palmer F J Doblas Reyes A Weisheimer and M J Rodwell Toward Seamless Prediction Calibration of Climate Change Projections Using Seasonal Forecasts Bull Amer Meteor Soc vol 89 pp 459 470 2008 http dx doi org 10 1175 bams 89 4 459 Comments pop up 19 Thin Ice the movie Filed under Climate Science raypierre 8 April 2013 Some of my friends have made a film Thin Ice which tells the story of CO2 and climate from the standpoint of the climate scientists who are out there in the trenches trying to figure out what is going on I have a small role in the film myself and I am sure RealClimate readers will recognize many more familiar

    Original URL path: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2013/04/ (2016-02-13)
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  • March « 2013 « RealClimate
    video What scientific support is there for the link between such extremes and climate change More Comments pop up 118 Unforced Variations March 2013 Filed under Climate Science Open thread group 4 March 2013 A new open thread hopefully for some new climate science topics Comments pop up 350 Site Google Custom Search Recent Comments What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Jim Eager What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Patrick Eriksson What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Kevin McKinney Anti scientists Carbomontanus What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Spencer Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis SteveS What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Chris Colose Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System doiknow What is the best description of the greenhouse effect James Powell Unforced Variations Feb 2016 Jim Galasyn With Inline Responses Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis SteveS Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis steve s Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis Andrew Kerber Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System Hank Roberts Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System doiknow Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis MartinM Anti scientists Don McKenzie Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis Matt Skaggs Anti scientists mikeworst New On line Classes and Models Marcus Pages Acronym index Data Sources Categories Climate Science Aerosols Arctic and Antarctic Carbon cycle Climate impacts Climate modelling El Nino Geoengineering Greenhouse gases Hurricanes Instrumental Record IPCC Oceans Paleoclimate Sun earth connections Communicating Climate Reporting on climate skeptics Extras Attic Comment Policy Contributor Bio s FAQ Glossary In the News Reviews

    Original URL path: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2013/03/ (2016-02-13)
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