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  • June « 2010 « RealClimate
    retraction does not appear to have ever been posted online Here is a scan of the print version just in case there is any doubt about its existence Update the retraction has now appeared This follows on the heels of a German paper the Frankfurter Rundschau recently retracting a story on the Africagate non scandal based on reporting from Jonathan Leake It is an open question as to what impact these retractions and apologies have but just as with technical comments on nonsense articles appearing a year after the damage was done setting the record straight is a important for those people who will be looking at this at a later date and gives some hope that the media can be held a little accountable for what they publish Comments pop up 167 Five Thousand Gulf Oil Spills Filed under Climate Science david 16 June 2010 That s the rate that people are releasing carbon to the atmosphere from fossil fuel combustion and deforestation today I know it s apples and oranges carbon in the form of oil is more immediately toxic to the environment than it is as CO 2 although CO 2 may be more damaging on geologic time scales But think of it five thousand spills like in the Gulf of Mexico all going at once each releasing 40 000 barrels a day every day for decades and centuries on end We are burning a lot of carbon Comments pop up 177 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Records Trends and Ephemerality Filed under Climate Science group 15 June 2010 Guest Commentary from Urs Neu To understand the influence of climate change on tropical cyclone and hurricane activity it is crucial to know how this activity has varied in the past There have been a number of interesting new studies of Atlantic tropical cyclones TCs and hurricanes tropical cyclones with maximum sustained winds exceeding 74 miles per hour since my review of the topic a couple years ago see here and here These newer studies underscore that while our knowledge continues to improve in this area key uncertainties persist In particular it remains very difficult to confidently estimate trends in the past In assessing past trends one must distinguish between two distinct time intervals 1 the period of historical observations mainly after 1850 and 2 the earlier period for which TC activity can only be reconstructed using proxy data Furthermore we have to distinguish between trends in tropical cyclone TC number and TC intensity the latter measure is particularly important from the standpoint of impacts There is no a priori reason to expect these quantities to vary in concert either in the past or in the future Unfortunately uncertainties are much greater for intensity than for counts In this article I will review our current understanding of Atlantic TC and hurricane trends with respect to A the historical record of basin wide TC numbers B the historical record of hurricanes and TC intensity C distant past proxy estimates of TC

    Original URL path: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2010/06/ (2016-02-13)
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  • May « 2010 « RealClimate
    pop up 169 What we can learn from studying the last millennium or so Filed under Climate Science Paleoclimate Sun earth connections mike 15 May 2010 With all of the emphasis that is often placed on hemispheric or global mean temperature trends during the past millennium and the context they provide for interpreting modern warming trends one thing is often lost in the discussion space matters as much as time Indeed it is likely that the regional patterns of past climate changes rather than simple hemispheric or global mean temperature trends will best inform our understanding of the dynamical mechanisms involved Since much of the uncertainty in future projections relates to regional climate change impacts it makes particular sense to focus on those changes in the past that involve regional changes and the underlying mechanisms behind them For instance melting of the cryosphere and consequent rises in sea level subtle shifts in drought and rainfall patterns and extreme events are all regional effects that could be important threats to ecosystems and our environment Such changes are often associated with phenomena like ENSO or the North Atlantic Oscillation Yet there remain large uncertainties about how such mechanisms will respond to anthropogenic climate change More Comments pop up 690 Solar Filed under Reviews stefan 4 May 2010 The new novel Solar by Ian McEwan Britain s national author as many call him tackles the issue of climate change I should perhaps start my review with a disclosure I m a long standing fan of McEwan and have read all of his novels and I am also mentioned in the acknowledgements of Solar I met McEwan in Potsdam and we had some correspondence while he wrote his novel Our recent book The Climate Crisis quotes a page of McEwan as its Epilogue And of course I m not a literature critic but a scientist So don t expect a detached professional review More Comments pop up 726 Site Google Custom Search Recent Comments What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Jim Eager What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Patrick Eriksson What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Kevin McKinney Anti scientists Carbomontanus What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Spencer Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis SteveS What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Chris Colose Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System doiknow What is the best description of the greenhouse effect James Powell Unforced Variations Feb 2016 Jim Galasyn With Inline Responses Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis SteveS Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis steve s Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis Andrew Kerber Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System Hank Roberts Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System doiknow Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis MartinM Anti scientists

    Original URL path: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2010/05/ (2016-02-13)
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  • April « 2010 « RealClimate
    1 421 The Economist does not disappoint Filed under Climate Science eric 13 April 2010 The March 20th 26th cover story of The Economist Spin science and climate change deftly bypasses the politics surrounding climategate to tackle the more important issue whether any of this has any bearing on climate change science and policy This is a refreshing bit of journalism that everyone should read More Comments pop up 92 Krugman weighs in Filed under Climate Science david 11 April 2010 After weeks and months of press coverage seemingly Through the Looking Glass Paul Krugman has sent us a breath of fresh air this morning in the New York Times Magazine entitled Building a Green Economy Krugman now joins fellow NYT columnist Tom Friedman as required reading in my Global Warming for English Majors class at the University of Chicago More Comments pop up 510 Climate scientist bashing Filed under Climate Science stefan 7 April 2010 A new popular sport in some media these days is climate scientist bashing Instead of dealing soberly with the climate problem they prefer to attack climate scientists i e the bearers of bad news The German magazine DER SPIEGEL has played this game last week under the suggestive heading Die Wolkenschieber which literally translated can mean both the cloud movers and the cloud traffickers available in English here The article continues on this level alleging sloppy work falsifications and exaggerations By doing so DER SPIEGEL digs deeply into the old relic box of climate skeptics and freely helps itself on their websites instead of critically researching the issues at hand More Comments pop up 517 Older Entries Site Google Custom Search Recent Comments What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Jim Eager What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Patrick Eriksson What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Kevin McKinney Anti scientists Carbomontanus What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Spencer Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis SteveS What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Chris Colose Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System doiknow What is the best description of the greenhouse effect James Powell Unforced Variations Feb 2016 Jim Galasyn With Inline Responses Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis SteveS Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis steve s Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis Andrew Kerber Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System Hank Roberts Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System doiknow Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis MartinM Anti scientists Don McKenzie Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis Matt Skaggs Anti scientists mikeworst New On line Classes and Models Marcus Pages Acronym index Data Sources Categories Climate Science Aerosols Arctic and Antarctic Carbon cycle Climate impacts Climate modelling El Nino Geoengineering Greenhouse gases Hurricanes Instrumental Record IPCC

    Original URL path: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2010/04/ (2016-02-13)
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  • March « 2010 « RealClimate
    of additional important points in his commentary below Bottom line IPCC gets it right as usual Guest Commentary by Simon Lewis University of Leeds UK The new Samanta et al study uses sensors on satellites to assess the colour of the rainforest canopy in the dry season of the year 2005 compared to the dry seasons of the years 2003 and 2004 More detected green colour in 2005 may suggest that the forest is being more productive more green leaves photosynthesising or more brown colours may suggest leaves dying and less productivity than the previous years The results show that 2005 was little different to the previous years despite the strong drought This is important new information as in 2007 a paper using broadly the same satellite based method showed a strong greening up of the Amazon in 2005 suggesting tolerance to drought Saleska et al 2007 Science The new study shows that those results were not reproducible but also highlight the extreme caution that should be attached to satellite studies generally in this field with instruments in space collecting data which is then used to infer subtle changes in the ecology of tropical forests In contrast to the 2007 paper Oliver Phillips myself and others published a paper in Science last year using ground observations from across the Amazon showing that while the 2005 drought did not dramatically change the growth of the trees compared to a normal year as Samanta et al also show the deaths of trees did increase considerably The new study of Samanta et al does not contradict the Phillips et al study which itself shows the Amazon is vulnerable to drought via impacts on tree mortality The Phillips et al paper showed that remaining Amazon forest trees changed from absorbing nearly 2 billion tonnes of CO 2 from the atmosphere annually over recent decades as tree growth has been exceeding mortality to being a large but temporary source of over 3 billion tonnes from the elevated tree mortality associated with the 2005 drought event The evidence for the possibility of a major die back of the Amazon rainforest is due to two factors 1 That climate change induced decreases in rainfall in the dry season occur and 2 The trees cannot tolerate these reductions in rainfall The Samanta paper does not directly address the first point this is addressed using global circulation models of which some but not all show a strong drying trend for the east of the Amazon over the 21st century The second point is only addressed in a limited way The critical question is how these forests respond to repeated droughts not merely single year droughts The forests are of course able to withstand these single droughts otherwise there would be no rainforest it is their ability to survive an increased frequency of the most severe droughts that is critical to answer Drought experiments where a roof is built under the forest canopy to reduce rainfall show that most forest

    Original URL path: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2010/03/ (2016-02-13)
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  • February « 2010 « RealClimate
    and confusion on the subject than we have seen in such a short time anywhere While the UK newspaper scene is uniquely competitive especially compared to the US with over half a dozen national dailies selling in the same market and historically there have been equally frenzied bouts of mis reporting in the past on topics as diverse as pit bulls vaccines and child abductions there is something new in this mess that is worth discussing And that has been a huge shift in the Overton window for climate change More Comments pop up 1 168 Daily Mangle Filed under Climate Science Instrumental Record Paleoclimate Reporting on climate group 15 February 2010 Yesterday the Daily Mail of the UK published a predictably inaccurate article entitled Climategate U turn as scientist at centre of row admits There has been no global warming since 1995 The title itself is a distortion of what Jones actually said in an interview with the BBC What Jones actually said is that while the globe has nominally warmed since 1995 it is difficult to establish the statistical significance of that warming given the short nature of the time interval 1995 present involved The warming trend consequently doesn t quite achieve statistical significance But it is extremely difficult to establish a statistically significant trend over a time interval as short as 15 years a point we have made countless times at RealClimate It is also worth noting that the CRU record indicates slightly less warming than other global temperature estimates such as the GISS record The article also incorrectly equates instrumental surface temperature data that Jones and CRU have assembled to estimate the modern surface temperature trends with paleoclimate data used to estimate temperatures in past centuries falsely asserting that the former has been used to produce the hockey stick graph Finally the article intentionally distorts comments that Jones made about the so called Medieval Warm Period Jones stated in his BBC interview that There is much debate over whether the Medieval Warm Period was global in extent or not The MWP is most clearly expressed in parts of North America the North Atlantic and Europe and parts of Asia and that For it to be global in extent the MWP would need to be seen clearly in more records from the tropical regions and the Southern hemisphere There are very few palaeoclimatic records for these latter two regions These are statements with which we entirely agree and they are moreover fully consistent with the conclusions of the most recent IPCC report and the numerous peer reviewed publications on this issue since Those conclusions are that recent Northern Hemisphere warming is likely unprecedented in at least a millennium at least 1300 years in fact and that evidence in the Southern Hemisphere is currently too sparse for confident conclusions Mann et al in fact drew those same conclusions in their most recent work on this problem PNAS 2008 Unfortunately these kinds of distortions are all too common in

    Original URL path: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2010/02/ (2016-02-13)
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  • January « 2010 « RealClimate
    years of global instrumental temperature records in the surface temperature analysis of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies GISS The Southern Hemisphere set a record as the warmest year for that half of the world Global mean temperature as shown in Figure 1a was 0 57 C 1 0 F warmer than climatology the 1951 1980 base period Southern Hemisphere mean temperature as shown in Figure 1b was 0 49 C 0 88 F warmer than in the period of climatology Figure 1 a GISS analysis of global surface temperature change Green vertical bar is estimated 95 percent confidence range two standard deviations for annual temperature change b Hemispheric temperature change in GISS analysis Base period is 1951 1980 This base period is fixed consistently in GISS temperature analysis papers see References Base period 1961 1990 is used for comparison with published HadCRUT analyses in Figures 3 and 4 The global record warm year in the period of near global instrumental measurements since the late 1800s was 2005 Sometimes it is asserted that 1998 was the warmest year The origin of this confusion is discussed below There is a high degree of interannual year to year and decadal variability in both global and hemispheric temperatures Underlying this variability however is a long term warming trend that has become strong and persistent over the past three decades The long term trends are more apparent when temperature is averaged over several years The 60 month 5 year and 132 month 11 year running mean temperatures are shown in Figure 2 for the globe and the hemispheres The 5 year mean is sufficient to reduce the effect of the El Niño La Niña cycles of tropical climate The 11 year mean minimizes the effect of solar variability the brightness of the sun varies by a measurable amount over the sunspot cycle which is typically of 10 12 year duration More Comments pop up 932 Plass and the Surface Budget Fallacy Filed under Climate Science raypierre 13 January 2010 RealClimate is run by a rather loosely organized volunteer consortium of people with day jobs that in and of themselves can be quite consuming of attention And so it came to pass that the first I learned about Gavin s interest in the work of Plass was by reading RealClimate In fact David Archer and I have a book due to appear this year from Wiley Blackwell The Warming Papers which is a collection of historic papers on global warming together with interpretive essays by David and myself Needless to say we pay a lot of attention to the seminal work by Plass in this book His 1956 QJRMS technical paper on radiative transfer which is largely the basis of his more popular writings on global warming was one of the papers we chose to reprint in our collection In reading historic papers it is easy to fall into the trap of assuming that investigators of the past are working on the basis of

    Original URL path: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2010/01/ (2016-02-13)
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  • December « 2009 « RealClimate
    Science eric 18 December 2009 Several people have written saying that it would be useful to have an expert opinion on the state of the surface temperature data from someone other than RealClimate members Here you go TemperatureOfScience pdf You don t get more expert than Jim Hansen Comments pop up 186 Older Entries Site Google Custom Search Recent Comments What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Jim Eager What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Patrick Eriksson What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Kevin McKinney Anti scientists Carbomontanus What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Spencer Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis SteveS What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Chris Colose Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System doiknow What is the best description of the greenhouse effect James Powell Unforced Variations Feb 2016 Jim Galasyn With Inline Responses Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis SteveS Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis steve s Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis Andrew Kerber Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System Hank Roberts Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System doiknow Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis MartinM Anti scientists Don McKenzie Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis Matt Skaggs Anti scientists mikeworst New On line Classes and Models Marcus Pages Acronym index Data Sources Categories Climate Science Aerosols Arctic and Antarctic Carbon cycle Climate impacts Climate modelling El Nino Geoengineering Greenhouse gases Hurricanes Instrumental Record IPCC Oceans Paleoclimate Sun earth connections Communicating Climate Reporting on climate skeptics Extras Attic Comment Policy Contributor Bio s FAQ

    Original URL path: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/12/ (2016-02-13)
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  • November « 2009 « RealClimate
    journal that came to light with the particularly egregious and well publicised paper by Soon and Baliunas 2003 The publisher s assessment is here Update Pulling out some of the common points being raised in the comments HARRY read me txt This is a 4 year long work log of Ian Harry Harris who was working to upgrade the documentation metadata and databases associated with the legacy CRU TS 2 1 product which is not the same as the HadCRUT data see Mitchell and Jones 2003 for details The CSU TS 3 0 is available now via ClimateExplorer for instance and so presumably the database problems got fixed Anyone who has ever worked on constructing a database from dozens of individual sometimes contradictory and inconsistently formatted datasets will share his evident frustration with how tedious that can be Redefine the peer reviewed literature Nobody actually gets to do that and both papers discussed in that comment McKitrick and Michaels 2004 and Kalnay and Cai 2003 were both cited and discussed in Chapter 2 of 3 the IPCC AR4 report As an aside neither has stood the test of time Declines in the MXD record This decline was hidden written up in Nature in 1998 where the authors suggested not using the post 1960 data Their actual programs in IDL script unsurprisingly warn against using post 1960 data Added Note that the hide the decline comment was made in 1999 10 years ago and has no connection whatsoever to more recent instrumental records CRU data accessibility From the date of the first FOI request to CRU in 2007 it has been made abundantly clear that the main impediment to releasing the whole CRU archive is the small of it that was given to CRU on the understanding it wouldn t be passed on to third parties Those restrictions are in place because of the originating organisations the various National Met Services around the world and are not CRU s to break As of Nov 13 the response to the umpteenth FOI request for the same data met with exactly the same response This is an unfortunate situation and pressure should be brought to bear on the National Met Services to release CRU from that obligation It is not however the fault of CRU The vast majority of the data in the HadCRU records is publicly available from GHCN v2 mean Z Suggestions that FOI related material be deleted are ill advised even if not carried out What is and is not responsive and deliverable to an FOI request is however a subject that it is very appropriate to discuss Fudge factors update IDL code in the some of the attached files calculates and applies an artificial fudge factor to the MXD proxies to artificially eliminate the divergence pattern This was done for a set of experiments reported in this submitted 2004 draft by Osborn and colleagues but which was never published Section 4 3 explains the rationale very clearly which was

    Original URL path: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/11/ (2016-02-13)
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