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  • June « 2008 « RealClimate
    increases in marine boundary layer ozone loss but since they have only just started to be used to simulate 20th and early 21st Century changes it is very unclear what difference it will make at the large scale These models are significantly more complicated than standard climate models having dozens of extra tracers to move around and a lot of extra coding to work through are slower to run and have been used much less extensively Climate models today are extremely flexible and configurable tools that can include all these Earth System modules including those mentioned above but also full carbon cycles and dynamic vegetation but depending on the application often don t need to Thus while in theory a revision in ozone chemistry or soil respiration or aerosol properties might impact the full ESM it won t affect the more basic stuff like the sensitivity to CO 2 But it seems that the climate models will have to be adjusted meme is just too good not to use regardless of the context Comments pop up 66 Ocean heat content revisions Filed under Climate modelling Climate Science Oceans gavin 19 June 2008 Hot on the heels of last months reporting of a discrepancy in the ocean surface temperatures a new paper in Nature by Domingues et al 2008 reports on the revisions of the ocean heat content OHC data a correction required because of other discrepancies in measuring systems found last year More Comments pop up 165 Wired Magazine s Incoherent Truths Filed under Climate Science raypierre 15 June 2008 Many of our tech savvy friends the kind of folks who nurse along the beowulf clusters our climate models run on are scratching their heads over some cheeky shrieking that recently appeared in a WIRED magazine article on Rethinking What it Means to be Green Crank up the A C Kill the Spotted Owl Keep the SUV What s all that supposed to be about More Comments pop up 367 Ice Shelf Instability Filed under Arctic and Antarctic Climate Science group 12 June 2008 Guest contribution from Mauri S Pelto Ice shelves are floating platforms of ice fed by mountain glaciers and ice sheets flowing from the land onto the ocean The ice flows from the grounding line where it becomes floating to the seaward front where icebergs calve For a typical glacier when the climate warms the glacier merely retreats reducing its low elevation high melting area by increasing its mean elevation An ice shelf is nearly flat and cannot retreat in this fashion Ice shelves cannot persist unless the entire ice shelf is an accumulation zone where snowpack does not completely melt even in the summer More Comments pop up 177 Older Entries Site Google Custom Search Recent Comments What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Jim Eager What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Patrick Eriksson What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Kevin McKinney Anti scientists Carbomontanus What is the

    Original URL path: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2008/06/ (2016-02-13)
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  • May « 2008 « RealClimate
    three easy lessons Filed under Climate modelling skeptics raypierre 21 May 2008 These days when global warming inactivists need to trot out somebody with some semblance of scientific credentials from the dwindling supply who have made themselves available for such purposes it seems that they increasingly turn to Roy Spencer a Principal Research Scientist at the University of Alabama Roy does have a handful of peer reviewed publications some of which have quite decent and interesting results in them However the thing you have to understand is that what he gets through peer review is far less threatening to the mainstream picture of anthropogenic global warming than you d think from the spin he puts on it in press releases presentations and the blogosphere His recent guest article on Pielke Sr s site is a case in point and provides the fodder for our discussion today More Comments pop up 175 Climate Change and Tropical Cyclones Yet Again Filed under Climate modelling Climate Science El Nino Greenhouse gases Hurricanes rasmus 18 May 2008 By Rasmus Benestad Michael Mann Just as Typhoon Nargis has reminded us of the destructive power of tropical cyclones with its horrible death toll in Burma around 100 000 according to the UN a new paper by Knutson et al in the latest issue of the journal Nature Geosciences purports to project a reduction in Atlantic hurricane activity principally the frequency but also integrated measures of powerfulness The close timing of the Knutson et al and Typhoon Nargis is of course coincidental But the study has been accorded the unprecedented privilege that is for a climate change article published during the past 7 years of a NOAA press conference What s the difference this time Well for one thing the title of the paper Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty first century warming conditions emphasis added More Comments pop up 62 The Global Cooling Bet Part 2 Filed under Climate modelling Climate Science Communicating Climate group 13 May 2008 Last week we proposed a bet against the pause in global warming forecast in Nature by Keenlyside et al and we promised to present our scientific case later so here it is More Comments pop up 198 Older Entries Site Google Custom Search Recent Comments What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Jim Eager What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Patrick Eriksson What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Kevin McKinney Anti scientists Carbomontanus What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Spencer Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis SteveS What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Chris Colose Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System doiknow What is the best description of the greenhouse effect James Powell Unforced Variations Feb 2016 Jim Galasyn With Inline Responses Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis SteveS Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis steve

    Original URL path: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2008/05/ (2016-02-13)
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  • April « 2008 « RealClimate
    converging on the city of Vienna Austria It was time to take the pulse of the geophysical community More Comments pop up 75 Moulins Calving Fronts and Greenland Outlet Glacier Acceleration Filed under Arctic and Antarctic Climate Science group 18 April 2008 Guest Commentary by Mauri Pelto The net loss in volume and hence sea level contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet GIS has doubled in recent years from 90 to 220 cubic kilometers year has been noted recently Rignot and Kanagaratnam 2007 The main cause of this increase is the acceleration of several large outlet glaciers There has also been an alarming increase in the number of photographs of meltwater draining into a moulin somewhere on the GIS often near Swiss Camp 35 km inland from the calving front The story goes warmer temperatures more surface melting more meltwater draining through moulins to glacier base lubricating glacier bed reducing friction increasing velocity and finally raising sea level Examining this issue two years RealClimate suggested this was likely the correct story A number of recent results suggest that we need to take another look at this story More Comments pop up 221 Model data comparison Lesson 2 Filed under Climate Science stefan 10 April 2008 In January we presented Lesson 1 in model data comparison if you are comparing noisy data to a model trend make sure you have enough data for them to show a statistically significant trend This was in response to a graph by Roger Pielke Jr presented in the New York Times Tierney Lab Blog that compared observations to IPCC projections over an 8 year period We showed that this period is too short for a meaningful trend comparison This week the story has taken a curious new twist In a letter published in Nature Geoscience Pielke presents such a comparison for a longer period 1990 2007 see Figure Lesson 1 learned 17 years is sufficient In fact the very first figure of last year s IPCC report presents almost the same comparison see second Figure More Comments pop up 363 Older Entries Site Google Custom Search Recent Comments What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Jim Eager What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Patrick Eriksson What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Kevin McKinney Anti scientists Carbomontanus What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Spencer Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis SteveS What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Chris Colose Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System doiknow What is the best description of the greenhouse effect James Powell Unforced Variations Feb 2016 Jim Galasyn With Inline Responses Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis SteveS Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis steve s Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis Andrew Kerber Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System Hank Roberts Blizzard

    Original URL path: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2008/04/ (2016-02-13)
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  • March « 2008 « RealClimate
    how such things work It s a great way to shake loose creative thinking And it s one of those things that makes real science so much fun Perfectly aside from the setting it was a thrill to see the vigor of this field and the influx of talented new young postdocs and graduates students with all their fresh ideas and enthusiasm I hope to give just a bit of the flavor of what went on during that eventful week More Comments pop up 155 A Galactic glitch Filed under Climate Science skeptics Sun earth connections rasmus 10 March 2008 Knud Jahnke and Rasmus Benestad After having watched a new documentary called the Cloud Mystery and especially the bit about the galaxy approximately 2 4 minutes into the linked video clip we realised that a very interesting point has been missed in earlier discussions about climate galactic cosmic rays and the evolution of the Milky Way galaxy It is claimed in The Cloud Mystery the book The Chilling Stars and related articles that our solar system takes about 250 million years to circle the Milky Way galaxy and that our solar system crosses one of the spiral arms about every 150 million years Shaviv 2003 But is this true Most likely not As we will discuss below this claim is seriously at odds with astrophysical data More Comments pop up 378 The global cooling mole Filed under Climate modelling Climate Science Communicating Climate Reporting on climate skeptics group 7 March 2008 By John Fleck and William Connolley To veterans of the Climate Wars the old 1970s global cooling canard How can we believe climate scientists about global warming today when back in the 1970s they told us an ice age was imminent must seem like a never ending game of Whack a mole One of us WMC has devoted years to whacking down the mole see here here and here for example while the other of us JF sees the mole pop up anew in his in box every time he quotes contemporary scientific views regarding climate change in his newspaper stories More Comments pop up 243 536 AD and all that Filed under Aerosols Climate Science Paleoclimate gavin 2 March 2008 during this year a most dread portent took place For the sun gave forth its light without brightness and it seemed exceedingly like the sun in eclipse for the beams it shed were not clear This quote from Procopius of Caesarea is matched by other sources from around the world pointing to something often described as a dry fog and accompanied by a cold summer crop failures and a host of other problems There s been a TV special books and much newsprint speculating on its cause volcanoes comets and other catastrophes have been suggested But this week there comes a new paper in GRL Larsen et al 2008 which may provide a definitive answer More Comments pop up 160 Site Google Custom Search Recent Comments What is

    Original URL path: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2008/03/ (2016-02-13)
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  • February « 2008 « RealClimate
    is accelerating we often hear people remarking that parts of Antarctica are getting colder and indeed the ice pack in the Southern Ocean around Antarctica has actually been getting bigger Doesn t this contradict the calculations that greenhouse gases are warming the globe Not at all because a cold Antarctica is just what calculations predict and have predicted for the past quarter century It s not just that Antarctica is covered with a gazillion tons of ice although that certainly helps keep it cold The ocean also plays a role which is doubly important because of the way it has delayed the world s recognition of global warming More Comments pop up 449 A day when Hell was frozen Filed under Climate Science RC Forum Reporting on climate rasmus 7 February 2008 I was honoured to be invited to the annual regional conference for Norwegian journalists taking place annually in a small town called Hell Try Earth Google Hell Norway During this conference I was asked to participate in a panel debate about the theme Climate how should we the media deal with world s most pressing issue my translation from Norwegian by the way Gods expedition means Cargo shipment in old Norwegian dialect More Comments pop up 366 The IPCC model simulation archive Filed under Climate modelling Climate Science IPCC gavin 4 February 2008 In the lead up to the 4th Assessment Report all the main climate modelling groups 17 of them at last count made a series of coordinated simulations for the 20th Century and various scenarios for the future All of this output is publicly available in the PCMDI IPCC AR4 archive now officially called the CMIP3 archive in recognition of the two previous though less comprehensive collections We ve mentioned this archive before in passing but we ve never really discussed what it is how it came to be how it is being used and how it is or should be radically transforming the comparisons of model output and observational data More Comments pop up 169 Site Google Custom Search Recent Comments What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Jim Eager What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Patrick Eriksson What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Kevin McKinney Anti scientists Carbomontanus What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Spencer Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis SteveS What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Chris Colose Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System doiknow What is the best description of the greenhouse effect James Powell Unforced Variations Feb 2016 Jim Galasyn With Inline Responses Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis SteveS Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis steve s Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis Andrew Kerber Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System Hank Roberts Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf

    Original URL path: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2008/02/ (2016-02-13)
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  • January « 2008 « RealClimate
    account of the Climategate scandal the 2009 hacking of climate scientists emails Throughout Mann reveals the role of science deniers abetted by an uninformed media in once again diverting attention away from one of the central scientific and policy issues of our time The Climate Crisis An Introductory Guide to Climate Change David Archer and Stefan Rahmstorf Cambridge University Press 2010 Publisher s description This book provides a concise and accessible overview of what we know about ongoing climate change and its impacts and what we can do to confront the climate crisis Highly illustrated in full colour it lucidly presents information contained in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports making essential scientific information on this critical topic available to a broad audience David Archer and Stefan Rahmstorf two outstanding scientists bring us up to date on climate science in this remarkable and very readable book This book deserves to be read by anyone interested in climate change Paul Crutzen Max Plank Institute for Chemistry winner of the Nobel Prize for Chemistry for explaining the ozone hole The key findings of the IPCC written in plain and simple terms Great value in informing the public at large about the science underlying the growing challenge of climate change Rajendra Pachauri Chairman of the IPCC and Director General of The Energy Resources Institute They are excellent communicators of the science to the general reader One hopes for a wide readership for this measured book which clearly and thoughtfully sets out the results of the work of a great many scientists Bryan Walker Hot Topic 19 January 2010 Climate Change Picturing the science Gavin Schmidt and Joshua Wolfe W W Norton April 2009 Climate Change Picturing the Science is a tour de force of public education It is simply the best available collection of essays by climate scientists on the nature of human induced climate change the ways scientists have come to understand and measure the risks that it poses and the options that we face The editors climatologist Gavin Schmidt and photographer Joshua Wolfe have produced a collection of essays of uniformly outstanding quality supported by photographs of beauty and insight Jeffrey D Sachs Director Earth Institute at Columbia University Publisher s description An unprecedented union of scientific analysis and stunning photography illustrating the effects of climate change on the global ecosystem In this groundbreaking book published by W W Norton Company in April 2009 NASA climate scientist Gavin Schmidt and photographer Joshua Wolfe illustrate as never before the ramifications of shifting weather patterns for human society Photographic spreads show us retreating glaciers sinking villages in Alaska s tundra drying lakes The text follows adventurous scientists through the ice caps at the poles to the coral reefs of the tropical seas Marshalling data spanning centuries and continents the book affirms the headlines with cutting edge research and visual records including contributions from experts on atmospheric science oceanography paleoclimatology technology politics and the polar regions Reviews The Long Thaw How Humans are Changing the Next 100 000 Years of Earth s Climate David Archer Princeton University Press 2009 Publisher s description Global warming is usually represented as a hundred year problem say to the year 2100 In The Long Thaw David Archer one of the world s leading climatologists shows how a few centuries of fossil fuel use will change the climate of the Earth dramatically for hundreds of thousands of years into the future The great ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland will take more than a century to melt we think but the climate impact from fossil fuel CO2 will last long enough for the ice sheets to respond fully to the warmer climate changing sea level one hundred times more than the forecast for the year 2100 A planet wide thaw driven by humans has already begun but Archer argues that it is still not too late to avert dangerous climate change if humans can find a way to cooperate as never before Reviews In this short book David Archer gives us the latest on climate change research and skillfully tells the climate story that he helped to discover generations beyond our grandchildren s grandchildren will inherit atmospheric changes and an altered climate as a result of our current decisions about fossil fuel burning Not only are massive climate changes coming if we humans continue on our current path but many of these changes will last for millennia To make predictions about the future we rely on research into the deep past and Archer is at the forefront of this field paleoclimatology This is the book for anyone who wishes to really understand what cutting edge science tells us about the effects we are having and will have on our future climate Richard B Alley Penn State University This is the best book about carbon dioxide and climate change that I have read David Archer knows what he is talking about James Hansen NASA Books on climate change tend to focus on what is expected to happen this century which will certainly be large but they often neglect the even larger changes expected to take place over many centuries The Long Thaw looks at climate effects beyond the twenty first century and its focus on the long term carbon cycle rather than just climate change is unique Jeffrey T Kiehl NCAR A great book What sets it apart is that it expands the discussion of the impacts of global warming beyond the next century and convincingly describes the effects that are projected for the next few thousand years What also sets it apart is how deeply it takes general readers into the scientific issues of global warming by using straightforward explanations of often complex ideas Peter J Fawcett University of New Mexico Archer has perfectly pitched answers to the most basic questions about global warming while providing a sound basis for understanding the complex issues frequently misrepresented by global warming skeptics With a breezy conversational style he provides a

    Original URL path: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2008/01/ (2016-02-13)
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  • December « 2007 « RealClimate
    high accuracy in laboratory experiments and field observations For a time there was some remaining uncertainty about whether water vapor feedback would amplify warming in the way hypothesized in the early energy balance models but a decade or two of additional observational and theoretical work has shown that there is no real reason to doubt the way in which general circulation models calculate the feedback When modified by inclusion of the cooling effect of anthropogenic aerosols the theory gives a satisfactory account of the pattern of 20th and 21st century temperature change No other theory based on quantified physical principles has been able to do the same If somebody comes along and has the bright idea that say global warming is caused by phlogiston raining down from the Moon that does not make everything we know about thermodynamics infrared absorption energy balance and temperature suddenly go away Rather it is the job of the phlogiston advocate to quantify the effects of phlogiston on energy balance and incorporate them in a consistent way beside the existing climate forcings Virtually all of the attempts to poke holes in the anthropogenic greenhouse theory lose sight of this simple and unassailable principle In a paper entitled Are there connections between the Earth s magnetic field and climate published recently in Earth and Planetary Science Letters Courtillot and co authors attempt to cast doubt on carbon dioxide as a primary driver of recent and presumably future climate change he argues instead that fluctuations in the Earth s magnetic field partly driven by solar variability have an important and neglected role Like most work of this genre it is carried out in an intellectual void as if everything we know currently about physics of climate had to be set aside in order to make way for one new or in fact not so new idea But the problems don t end there With the help of a Comment published by Bard and Delaygue available here at EPSL or here as pdf we ll expose a pattern of suspicious errors and omissions that pervades Courtillot s paper Sloppiness and ignorance is by far the most charitable interpretation that can be placed on this pattern More Comments pop up 148 Rolling up the circus tent Dispatch 7 Filed under Climate Science raypierre 15 December 2007 There s always a feeling of tristesse when they start pulling down the circus tents and loading the last of the elephants into their trailers The last day of AGU feels a bit like that AGU puts one much in mind of those medieval faires or the Jokkmokk Vintermarknad where people gathered and still gather in the latter case from time to time to exchange goods and the latest news Our own faire is a marketplace of ideas though you can buy some nifty stuff here too Like a medieval faire this is a social event as well a time of feasting and revels of renewing old friendships and of making new ones

    Original URL path: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/12/ (2016-02-13)
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  • November « 2007 « RealClimate
    a commitment that all new buildings would be net energy producers by 2020 incandescent lighting would be banned by 2010 buyers of efficient vehicles would be subsidized drivers of inefficient vehicles would be penalized and road construction would be severely curtailed in favor of expanded rail travel using state of the art French TGV technology A carbon tax is also being seriously contemplated These proposals are the result of an intensive months long series of discussions with scientists and stakeholders such as environmental nongovernmental organizations industry representatives and labor union representatives The process known as Le Grenelle de l Environnement was described here by Nature subscription required and a summary of some of Sarkozy s proposed actions was reported in the press here All the same there has been some pushback from a vocal pair of highly decorated French academicians Claude Allègre being the most prominent and noisiest of the two In recent years Vincent Courtillot has emerged as a reliable sidekick to Allègre a Dupont to his Dupond helping to propagate Allègre s claims and adding a few of his own Both are members of the Académie des Sciences and Allègre has been awarded both the Crafoord Prize and Bowie Medal Allègre has an impressive list of publications relating to the Earth s interior and besides that was Minister for Education Research and Technology in the Jospin government Courtillot currently director of the Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris IPGP has had a distinguished record of research on fundamental aspects of geomagnetism and is currently President of the Geomagnetism and Paleomagnetism Section of the American Geophysical Union Their views were amply some would say more than amply represented at a symposium on the IPCC report held last Spring at the Academie See the issue Evolution des Climats of La Lettre de l Académie des sciences and press reports in Le Figaro Le Monde and Liberation What does all this mean Are the opinions of Allègre and Courtillot founded on some special profound insight that has escaped the notice of the community of scientists who have devoted entire careers to studying climate Let s take a look More Comments pop up 291 Global dimming and global warming Filed under Aerosols Climate Science IPCC gavin 14 November 2007 Readers might remember a minor kerfuffle in EOS the AGU house journal in February this year in which Gerald Stanhill claimed to find a paradox in the contemporaneous effects of global warming and global dimming a long term reduction of surface solar radiation mainly due to aerosols and clouds The article attracted attention mainly because the paradox was claimed to pose a challenge to the consensus explanation of climate change Rather than point out the subtle confusions between surface and tropospheric forcing and local and global signals here I and two co authors wrote a comment to the journal After a number of avoidable and unavoidable delays this comment along with another one and a reply have all now appeared in EOS

    Original URL path: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/11/ (2016-02-13)
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