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  • June « 2006 « RealClimate
    June 2006 I recently attented a conference on communicating science and technology in Tromsø Norway June 6 9 CST060606 The conference was filmed and the presentations can be viewed over the internet broadcast There were many very good presentations bringing up important points and one by Lawrence Krauss Science under Attack should not be missed Also the presentation by the nobel laurate Ivar Giaever provides a lot of food for thought and Janet Sumner told how the science can be jazzed up and made more accesible on the BBC touching onto the climate science climate chaos season and showing clips of Rough science Labrats and Science Shack in association with the Open University The conference was attended by scientists teachers politicians and people from the media The topics of presentations span issues such as climate ID media schools and politics the Norwegian minister of education I also gave a fairly diasterous presentation on communicating climate with reference to RealClimate org Comments pop up 96 National Academies Synthesis Report Filed under Climate Science Extras Paleoclimate Reviews group 22 June 2006 The long awaited NAS synthesis report on surface temperature reconstructions over the last few millennia is being released today It s a long 155 page report and will take a while to digest but we applaud the committee for having tried to master a dense thicket of publications and materials on the subject over a relatively short time It is probably expecting too much for one report might to put to rest all the outstanding issues in a still developing field And given the considerable length of the report we have little doubt that keen contrarians will be able to mine the report for skeptical sounding sentences and cherry pick the findings However it is the big picture conclusions that have the most relevance for the lay public and policymakers and it is re assuring and unsurprising to see that the panel has found reason to support the key mainstream findings of past research including points that we have highlighted previously More Comments pop up 81 Sea level in the Arctic Filed under Arctic and Antarctic Climate Science Oceans gavin 20 June 2006 A recent conference presentation at AGU reported here while confirming that global sea level is indeed rising in line with other estimates showed that Arctic sea levels may actually be falling On the face of it these preliminary results are a little puzzling though note that this isn t yet a properly peer reviewed paper and so may not reflect what ends up in the journal but it does reveal some of the complexities in analysing sea level in relatively small enclosed basins and so a brief overview of the different factors involved is probably useful More Comments pop up 52 Older Entries Site Google Custom Search Recent Comments What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Patrick Eriksson What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Kevin McKinney Anti scientists Carbomontanus What is the best

    Original URL path: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2006/06/ (2016-02-13)
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  • May « 2006 « RealClimate
    Of course such testing only makes sense if the simulated test world has characteristics similar to the real world More Comments pop up 42 More on the Arctic Filed under Arctic and Antarctic Climate Science mike 22 May 2006 By Michael Mann Phil Jones guest Svalbard an Arctic island in the Northern North Atlantic is predicted to warm considerably more than most of the rest of the earth in many model based scenarios See for example the figure to the right which represents a relatively high end IPCC Third Assessment Report scenario for the projected surface temperature difference between the period 2071 2100 and 1961 1990 Svalbard is the island north of Norway at about 80N between 15 30E The enhanced warming in this region is related to the issue of polar amplification that we have discussed previously on RC It also happens that the Svalbard meteorological station is the 2nd station in the World Meteorological Organization WMO meteorological station list This means that it tends to get noticed The Climatic Research Unit CRU of the University of East Anglia maintains one prominent version of the global surface temperature data set and as part of its routine quality control CRU flags any unusual anomalous warm or cold new measurements that come in Svalbard has now been flagged consistently over the past several months but the values have been confirmed as accurate by the Norwegian Met Service which operates the Svalbard station More Comments pop up 88 Thank you for emitting Filed under Arctic and Antarctic Climate Science Greenhouse gases Reporting on climate group 18 May 2006 A recent movie Thank You for Smoking amusingly highlighted the lengths that PR reps for the tobacco companies would go to distort the public discourse on the health effects of smoking Lest you thought that was of merely historical relevance we would like to draw your attention to two of the funniest videos around Lifting a page straight out of the Nick Naylor playbook the CEI an industry funded lobby group has launched a new ad campaign that is supposed to counteract all those pesky scientific facts about global warming The first ad both available here deserves to become a classic of the genre It contains the immortal lines CO 2 they call it pollution we call it Life it is beyond parody and without content and so you should definitely see it The second ad has a little more substance but is as misleading as you might expect More Comments pop up 135 Older Entries Site Google Custom Search Recent Comments What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Jim Eager What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Patrick Eriksson What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Kevin McKinney Anti scientists Carbomontanus What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Spencer Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis SteveS What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Chris Colose Blizzard Jonas and the

    Original URL path: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2006/05/ (2016-02-13)
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  • April « 2006 « RealClimate
    ranges of climate sensitivity within their super ensemble of perturbed physics runs While there was a lot of interesting science in this paper the new methodology the range of results etc which fully justified its appearance in Nature we were quite critical of their basic conclusion that climate sensitivities significantly higher than the standard range 1 5 4 5ºC were plausible because there is significant other data predominantly from paleo climate that pretty much rule those high numbers out as we discussed again recently The press coverage of the paper mostly picked up on the very high end sensitivities up to 11ºC and often confused the notion of an equilibirum sensitivity with an actual prediction for 2100 and this lead to some pretty way out headlines I think all involved would agree that this was not a big step forward in the public understanding of science Why did this happen Is it because the scientists were being alarmist or was it more related to a certain naivety in how public relations and the media work And more importantly what can scientists do to help ensure that media coverage is a fair reflection of their work More Comments pop up 258 Kristof on the Apocalypse Filed under Climate Science raypierre 19 April 2006 We have noted with pleasure Nicholas Kristof s column The Big Burp Theory of the Apocalypse TimesSelect subscription required which appeared in the New York Times of 18 April This column is built around the possibility of a catastrophic methane release from marine clathrate decomposition but at heart it is really a lament that the more conventional and better understood harms of global warming have not proved sufficient to get the attention of the White House or Congress This column is a refreshing change from the recent spate of backlash columns by Will Novak and Lindzen attempting to tar climate scientists with the a mist epithet Kristof gives a generous tip of the hat to the excellent discussion of methane hydrates by scholars at www realclimate org Thanks Nick He has clearly made good use of Dave Archer s RealClimate article on clathrates and it shows in the Kristof s sound discussion of the basic science He is very clear on why a clathrate catastrophe would be a bad thing but equally clear about the uncertainties The column even contains an intelligent discussion of the Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum as a possible example of a clathrate catastrophe taking care to point out that this event might not in fact have been caused by methane release Quite a lot to get in a short column while still managing to achieve a lively style that surely keeps the readers awake Perhaps closest to our hearts is Kristof s cogently stated theme that uncertainty is in the nature of the science and is no excuse for inaction indeed should be a spur to greater action The White House has used scientific uncertainty as an excuse for its paralysis But our leaders

    Original URL path: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2006/04/ (2016-02-13)
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  • March « 2006 « RealClimate
    Crichton is one of the last trend sceptics who deny the warming trend is real More Comments pop up 71 Another study on solar influence Filed under Climate Science Sun earth connections rasmus 31 March 2006 In a recent paper in Geophysical Research Letters Scafetta West S W estimate that as much as 25 35 of the global warming in the 1980 2000 period can be attributed changes in the solar output They used some crude estimates of climate sensitivity and estimates of Total Solar Irradiance TSI to calculate temperature signal in form of anomalies They also argue that their estimate which is based on statistical models only has a major advantage over physically based considerations theoretical models because the latter would require a perfect knowledge about the underlying physical and chemical mechanisms More Comments pop up 19 Pielke père et fils in Nature Filed under Climate Science Reporting on climate gavin 29 March 2006 There s an interesting profile on Roger Pielke Jr and Sr in Nature this week As readers here are probably aware both of them have blogs Prometheus for Jr Climate Science for Sr and both have contributed to the discussions on RealClimate Readers will also be aware that the discussions have at times been heated though have usually remained collegial There have been a few times when the discussion may have seemed to be at cross purposes but overall the exchanges have been enlightening More Comments pop up 64 How much future sea level rise More evidence from models and ice sheet observations Filed under Arctic and Antarctic Climate modelling Paleoclimate eric 26 March 2006 Lots of press has been devoted to four papers in this week s Science on the topic of ice sheets and sea level We ve already discussed the new evidence that Greenland s glaciers are speeding up What is new this week is an effort to evaluate the impact of future warming on Greenland by looking at what happened to it last time it got very warm namely during the Last InterGlacial LIG period about 125 000 years ago The same group of authors looked at this in two ways using NCAR s Community Climate System model CCSM coupled to a state of the art 3 D ice sheet model More Comments pop up 87 Older Entries Site Google Custom Search Recent Comments What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Jim Eager What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Patrick Eriksson What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Kevin McKinney Anti scientists Carbomontanus What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Spencer Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis SteveS What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Chris Colose Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System doiknow What is the best description of the greenhouse effect James Powell Unforced Variations Feb 2016 Jim Galasyn With Inline Responses Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to

    Original URL path: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2006/03/ (2016-02-13)
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  • February « 2006 « RealClimate
    Birthday Charles Darwin Filed under Climate Science raypierre 16 February 2006 Charles Darwin was born on February 12 1809 The events commemorating Darwin s birthday anniversary last Sunday together with the recent conclusion of an important court case concerning the teaching of Intelligent Design ID in public schools prompts me to some musing concerning the relation of the Evolution ID dialog to similar issues arising in connection with anthropogenic global warming The age of the two theories is similar as well Darwin introduced his theory in 1859 whereas Fourier initiated the study of the effect of atmospheres on climate with his 1821 treatise stimulating the chain of developments leading to Arrhenius enunciation in 1896 of the theory that human influences on the atmosphere s CO 2 content could change the climate More Comments pop up 255 Richard Lindzen s HoL testimony Filed under Aerosols Climate modelling Climate Science Greenhouse gases gavin 14 February 2006 Prof Richard Lindzen MIT is often described as the most respectable of the climate sceptics and is frequently cited in discussions here and elsewhere Lindzen clearly has many fundamentally important papers under his belt work on the QBO and basic atmospheric dynamics and a number of papers that have been much less well received by the community the Iris effect etc Last year he gave evidence to and answered questions from a UK House of Lords Committee investigating the economics of climate change in which he discoursed freely on the science I ll try here to sort out what he said More Comments pop up 85 James Lovelock s Gloomy Vision Filed under Climate Science Greenhouse gases david 13 February 2006 James Lovelock renegade Earth scientist and creator of the Gaia hypothesis has written a gloomy new book called Revenge of Gaia in which he argues that we should be stashing survival manuals printed on good old fashioned paper in the Arctic where the last few breeding pairs of humans will likely be found after a coming climate catastrophe The book is not published in the U S yet but it is available from amazon co uk Lovelock has never been one to shrink from a bold vision What is it he sees now More Comments pop up 125 Older Entries Site Google Custom Search Recent Comments What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Jim Eager What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Patrick Eriksson What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Kevin McKinney Anti scientists Carbomontanus What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Spencer Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis SteveS What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Chris Colose Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System doiknow What is the best description of the greenhouse effect James Powell Unforced Variations Feb 2016 Jim Galasyn With Inline Responses Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis SteveS Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic

    Original URL path: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2006/02/ (2016-02-13)
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  • January « 2006 « RealClimate
    presence 95 31 35 ºC of this warming is produced by water vapour which is far and away the most important greenhouse gas The other trace gases contribute 5 1 65 ºC of the greenhouse warming amongst which carbon dioxide corresponds to 3 65 1 19 ºC The human caused contribution corresponds to about 3 of the total carbon dioxide in the present atmosphere the great majority of which is derived from natural sources Therefore the probable effect of human injected carbon dioxide is a miniscule 0 12 of the greenhouse warming that is a temperature rise of 0 036 ºC Put another way 99 88 of the greenhouse effect has nothing to do with carbon dioxide emissions from human activity 8 We ve discussed the magnitude of the greenhouse effect before but it might be helpful to step through this back of the agenda calculation and see what the numbers really give Deltoid has also had a go at some of these mis statements More Comments pop up 240 Daily Kos interview Filed under Climate Science In the News group 20 January 2006 A brief welcome to anyone coming over from Daily Kos today Three of us Mike Gavin and Stefan are interviewed by DarkSyde on climate change this site and walking the line between science and politics To find something specific check out the Highlights on the side bar the index or use the search bar above Comments pop up 50 Atlantic circulation change summary Filed under Climate Science Oceans Paleoclimate gavin 19 January 2006 Nature this week has an excellent summary of the state of the science with regards to possible changes in the ocean thermohaline or meridional circulation in the Atlantic and its impact on climate Even though it quotes a couple of us it s still worth reading if you want to understand how results like the Bryden et al paper that suggested that the Atlantic overturning had reduced by 30 in recent decades are assimilated into the scientific picture More Comments pop up 33 Older Entries Site Google Custom Search Recent Comments What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Jim Eager What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Patrick Eriksson What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Kevin McKinney Anti scientists Carbomontanus What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Spencer Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis SteveS What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Chris Colose Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System doiknow What is the best description of the greenhouse effect James Powell Unforced Variations Feb 2016 Jim Galasyn With Inline Responses Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis SteveS Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis steve s Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis Andrew Kerber Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System Hank Roberts Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of

    Original URL path: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2006/01/ (2016-02-13)
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  • December « 2005 « RealClimate
    data are responsible for most of the apparent variations Note too that the convention for the base periods for the anomalies differ between the analyses 1961 1990 for CRU WMO 1951 1980 for GISS but this does not affect the rankings Update 7pm The GISS analysis curiously appears to have gone off line Update 8am 16 Dec The GISS summation is still not back up but the raw data and new figures do seem to be available http data giss nasa gov gistemp Note that as pointed in comment 5 the WMO CRU Hadley Centre analysis is for Jan Nov and not for the met year as stated above though the GISS analaysis is Don t ask us why Final Update 11pm 16 Dec The GISS analysis is back Comments pop up 48 Natural Variability and Climate Sensitivity Filed under Climate Science Greenhouse gases Paleoclimate Reporting on climate raypierre 15 December 2005 One of the central tasks of climate science is to predict the sensitivity of climate to changes in carbon dioxide concentration The answer determines in large measure how serious the consequences of global warming will be One common measure of climate sensitivity is the amount by which global mean surface temperature would change once the system has settled into a new equilibrium following a doubling of the pre industrial CO 2 concentration A vast array of thought has been brought to bear on this problem beginning with Arrhenius simple energy balance calculation continuing through Manabe s one dimensional radiative convective models in the 1960 s and culminating in today s comprehensive atmosphere ocean general circulation models The current crop of models studied by the IPCC range from an equilibrium sensitivity of about 1 5 C at the low end to about 5 C at the high end Differences in cloud feedbacks remain the principal source of uncertainty There is no guarantee that the high end represents the worst case or that the low end represents the most optimistic case While there is at present no compelling reason to doubt the models handling of water vapor feedback it is not out of the question that some unanticipated behavior of the hydrological cycle could make the warming somewhat milder or on the other hand much much worse Thus the question naturally arises as to whether one can use information from past climates to check which models have the most correct climate sensitivity More Comments pop up 70 Older Entries Site Google Custom Search Recent Comments What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Jim Eager What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Patrick Eriksson What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Kevin McKinney Anti scientists Carbomontanus What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Spencer Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis SteveS What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Chris Colose Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System doiknow What is the best description of

    Original URL path: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2005/12/ (2016-02-13)
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  • November « 2005 « RealClimate
    available for a few years now and extend them over another 4 glacial interglacial cycles This is a landmark result and a strong testament to the almost heroic efforts in the field to bring back these samples from over 3km deep in the Antarctica ice So what do these new data tell us and where might they lead More Comments pop up 122 Books books books Filed under Climate Science david 23 November 2005 Perhaps you re interested in supplementing your tapas style RealClimate reading with a full meal of a book to curl up with Maybe you d like to send such a book to your good hearted but clueless Cousin Bob to convince him not to buy an SUV next time Here are some possibilities More Comments pop up 45 Busy Week for Water Vapor Filed under Climate modelling Climate Science Greenhouse gases raypierre 21 November 2005 It s been a busy week for water vapor and I have two recent papers to discuss The first is the paper Anthropogenic greenhouse forcing and strong water vapor feedback increase temperature in Europe by Rolf Philipona et al GRL 2005 subscription required for full text which has attracted a certain amount of media attention The overall goal of the paper is to understand from a physical standpoint why European temperatures have been increasing three times faster than the Northern Hemisphere average It focuses on the changes between 1995 and 2002 over which time good surface radiation budget observations are available The paper reports some results on the role of large scale circulation changes which they conclude are minor but I ll concentrate on the results relating to water vapor More Comments pop up 46 Older Entries Site Google Custom Search Recent Comments What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Jim Eager What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Patrick Eriksson What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Kevin McKinney Anti scientists Carbomontanus What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Spencer Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis SteveS What is the best description of the greenhouse effect Chris Colose Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System doiknow What is the best description of the greenhouse effect James Powell Unforced Variations Feb 2016 Jim Galasyn With Inline Responses Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis SteveS Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis steve s Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis Andrew Kerber Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System Hank Roberts Blizzard Jonas and the slowdown of the Gulf Stream System doiknow Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis MartinM Anti scientists Don McKenzie Marvel et al 2015 Part III Response to Nic Lewis Matt Skaggs Anti scientists mikeworst New On line Classes and Models Marcus Pages Acronym index Data Sources Categories Climate Science Aerosols Arctic and Antarctic Carbon cycle

    Original URL path: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2005/11/ (2016-02-13)
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